The Coronavirus Thread - Part 3

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Post by CBarca Sat Mar 06, 2021 5:39 pm

Anyone here get the vaccine?

I've got my first dose two days ago and I'm ecstatic. I almost wanted to cry. I haven't thought of the "end" of this thing this entire time, it's easier to accept that COVID was the new normal and to not think of it's end. Ever since my vaccine I've been thinking a lot about how this has all played out. What a wild year.

Still need my second dose on April 1, but I'm nearly there.

Other good news: my state of Wisconsin has been one of the best, by some metrics THE BEST in the entire United Fucking States in vaccine distribution. It's weird, it's almost like the current administration is competent except for our batshit fucking insane state legislature? Gerrymandering can fuck itself

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Post by BarrileteCosmico Thu Mar 11, 2021 2:58 pm

Brazil has 2k deaths a day, sao Paulo and Río are locked down, new strains are being created every day, and we are still in summer. This might get a lot uglier.

@elitedam give us the inside scoop
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Thu Mar 11, 2021 3:11 pm

Congrats cbarca! Were you able to qualify early because you work in education? Or is WI just really advanced in vaccination?

My wife's grandfather got his first shot yesterday. He's 83.
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Post by RealGunner Thu Mar 11, 2021 6:35 pm

Pretty much most over 60s have got vaccinated here and now they have moved to over 50s. My parents got a letter for invitation so they should get theirs sometime in the next few weeks.

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Post by elitedam Thu Mar 11, 2021 8:39 pm

There's not much to add. The heath care system is close to collapsing in some areas, if they already haven't done so. The vaccine rollout has been painfully slow. Bolsonaro is still a giant sack of incompetent shit.

Brazilians also have been super careless with the virus. If you wanna see some wild shit, go on youtube and look for the walking tours of Rio. People packed with no masks in sight.

Even the city that I live in, which I thought did relatively well in the beginning, is going through a massive surge. I've heard they've started sending people to other cities because of a lack of ICUs available.

At least my grandparents, who are all pushing 90, are about to get their second shot. I'm still worried about my mom who's 60. It's gonna take a while until the vaccines reach that age group.
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Post by Jesp Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:31 am

mess here in japan, too slow vaccination plans, then go v admitting that they didnt know about syringe that cant pull of adequate doses from the stock they have and some vials are going to go to waste ....

vaccine so far is only done to frontline healthcare workers. will start from aging groups by mid april. general population - no ETA.

meanwhile, extended lockdown in tokyo still after early march date expired - as tokyo is densely populated it still gets the highest stats of daily infection than anywhere else. meanwhile local governers spends too much time with stats but very little efforts on direction, results.

we have been very fortunate that people here are taking their own measures as much as possible. some very good work from offices also to take their own measures. meanwhile healthcare collapsed in mid feb so much so that people who were dying and made calls to get them in hospitals were not even called back left to die at home ...

healthcare workers no breaks since nov. i know a friend of mine who works in hospital she says she is broken mentally with over work with no breaks no weekends ... just on call and relentless long hour shifts.
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Post by CBarca Mon Mar 15, 2021 3:40 am

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:Congrats cbarca! Were you able to qualify early because you work in education? Or is WI just really advanced in vaccination?

My wife's grandfather got his first shot yesterday. He's 83.


We're terrific in % of doses used vs doses received, but most of the US has started to do well in vaccine distribution, so we're not ahead of the curve by all that much. I became eligible with the introduction of phase 1B in Wisconsin because I'm an educator. We've been in person the whole pandemic (although hybrid), but we're going to be ramping up in about a month to something that resembles "normal" school. It will still be quite different, but we'll have most students here 4 days a week and go through our rotations.

Hoping for the best and hoping for improvement in other parts of the world. The US has many problems, but I am grateful to live in a very wealthy country where we bought up a fuckton of vaccine. Our improving situation is to the detriment of others, but I am grateful to have the opportunity I have.
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Post by Myesyats Mon Mar 15, 2021 10:35 am

My grandma getting vaxed tomorrow, she's 79. The vaccine rollout is not as bad as I'd expect given the terrible state of our healthcare system which has been underfunded for years but excess deaths cant be hidden or swept under the rug. I'd assume most of it is not purely Covid but not being able to get an appointment to treat illness of any kind due to overcrowding/lack of personnel. If that was not enough, our PM claimed the pandemic was over twice already right before another disastrous wave came. These people have no shame, because somehow he hasn't resigned yet but their days are numbered and they're already gearing up for dissolution of parliament and early elections, absolutely shameful
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Post by The Franchise Mon Mar 15, 2021 8:16 pm

Surprised by the lack of challenge even here in GL.

I waited and waited before comment, but it doesnt seem coming.

*long read ahead, warning and you may not like what I have to say*

My opinion for transparency. Before I start dishing out my opinion, I should let it all out of the bag. I will keep mostly to my experience in the UK.


Lockdowns are a blunt tool which do not work as proclaimed. Akin to cutting off your leg because you tore your ACL.

There is absolutely no correlation, let alone causational link between severity of lockdown and lowered mortality.

I dont think the UK have even managed to go into lockdown before "cases" were declining, or at least the rate of infection had started to decrease.

They are not quite as bad people like myself who can work from home, not quite as bad for those collecting a nice chunk of their wages without actually doing anything but terrible for the many who's businesses are trashed, the newly self employed falling under the radar nor those who now cant pay their bills who were living from 100% pay check to pay check. When the average Joe comes off furlough and realises they have no job to go back to, they will be added to this list.

The lockdowns have set the economy back further than I dare figure out and directly or indirectly prevents alot of medical treatments in the way of cancer screening and so on. The collateral damage is beyond debate and not once has a real impact assessment, nor cost-benefit analysis been done.

Sweden made their care-home error like pretty much everyone else, but the rest has been a far more reasonable way to go and surprise surprise this was the recommended way to go about it before the rest of the world followed China's anti science.

The playbook was thrown away for whatever reason, if we are lucky, out of panic and I dare not say possible other reasons.

Billons wasted on track and trace. Dodgy govement PPE contracts. The errors are endless.

No proof of increased transmission outdoors, in schools, in restaurants, in gyms, and yet they remain closed. If you personally feel these are dangerous places to go then surely you would not go? The Gov fear mongering ads surely have driven off a large number of people anyway. Those not so concerned should be left to our own devices.

Hospitals being overwhelmed? I supply nurses to NHS hospitals on a daily basis for a living. I am very aware of supply and demand.

Perhaps during the initial outbreak this was a real fear (not a reality, but a genuine concern) but "winter pressures" have been an issue forever and nothing changed in that. We had more than enough time between then and Winter to plan for the inevitable seasonal resurgence and what was done? Closures of nightingale hospitals and no extra staff. Perhaps if perfectly healthy staff were not sent home for a positive PCR (I intentionally didnt say sick or with a case) you wouldnt be understaffed. Regardless, the NHS was not overwhelmed nor prevented from being overwhelmed.


Sweden constantly discredited by those not seeing the obvious/with an agenda, but age standardised mortality rates are well within the range of Denmark and Norway (those local countries Sweden is apparently doing so poorly compared to) and within norms for each of the last 6 years in Sweden itself.

Sweden have done "better" than the UK by whatever measure you want, without the need for such drastic restrictions.

Yes, for the old and unhealthy this is a dangerous disease, no getting around that. But for the vast majority, this is not the case.

Mask mandates make no sense. I mean logically I feel that's pretty obvious, but you wont find any real world data study to tell you they indeed work as claimed and plenty which show much less. Common sense says they should be at your discretion if you feel they do you some good. If you feel a wired fence effectively prevents sand from entering its target, be my guest.

PCR positive isnt a case. If this needs further explanation then we are in for alot of trouble. The issues surrounded by PCR at this point should be well known. Not a tool fit for this purpose and strangely, the basis of all decisions.

Cases and deaths based on this measure are worth little, certainly not reliable data without clinical collaboration. All cause mortality is the only number of interest at this point.

Id rather falls from ladders not be counted as Covid deaths but here we are.

Variants. No evidence of them being more lethal. Perhaps more transmissible. Simply a way to move goalposts.

The amount of people who have either fallen hook line and sinker, or arent seeing the obvious red flags is very disappointing and I fear any future investigations into this will be sullied by these pro lockdowners who insist we should have done it harder and sooner.

Gov have allowed themselves to be ran by  SAGE wacko's and with no challenge nor debate, despite leading experts in the field providing clear counter points. Where is the debate on this? If anyone from SAGE, Whittey, Valance or whoever attempted a debate with the likes of Bhattacharya, Hennegan, Lee, Gupta and others they'd be humiliated in less than 5 minutes.

The media have done a terrific job of silencing all those not following the narrative.

Vaccines? Why you would need a vaccine for something you have such a small risk of death from is beyond me. But that's neither here nor there, I wouldnt criticise anyone for their own personal choices. I dont understand you, but that's not my business.

But the fact, anyone who politely declines will be shut out from society is yet another red flag, you know via vaccine passports (not mandatory tho Laughing). You have your vaccine, me not getting one poses no risk to you if your vaccine works as you say. So why do I need some kind of vaccine passport to restore freedoms you had no business removing to begin with?

They sold these vaccines (why they need selling is interesting all on its own) as the ticket out of restrictions. Once all the groups at risk were taken care of, everything will be alright. Well mid Feb came and went, groups at risk taken care of and what do we have? 3 months extension of lockdown hidden behind phases like "cautious, but irreversible" and "data not dates". Data not dates, but we gradually return freedoms on an arbitrary date which cant be moved forward if data shows encouraging progress, but can moved backwards if not. How much suspension of reality do you need to have to not see the obvious reality?

Covid denial? Nope, absolutely not. I  am pretty sue I have already had it, its obviously a real thing. But the threat has been greatly exaggerated and the actions taken are absolutely wrong and reprehensible.

Protect the old and vulnerable and the rest of us get on with it. Plain and simple. Unfortunately we are far past that and we arent getting these freedoms back without a fight, if at all.

Let me also admit so you know im being honest, I dont follow any rules. I dont wear masks, I go to whoever's house will have me, I mix with whoever and I play football on the weekends. I refuse to follow this nonsense where I have the ability to.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Tue Mar 16, 2021 12:06 am

So let's take this in parts. To my reading you're making the following claims (let me know if you think I'm mis-representing your views):

Economy/Politics:
1. Lockdowns are a blunt tool, not effective at all and incredibly damaging on the economy
2. Sweden did as well as it's neighbors and are an example to be followed
3. The govt response by the UK was wasteful and corrupt
4. UK citizens have lost freedoms that they are never getting back

Health:
5. For most of the pandemic hospitals were not in danger of being overrun
6. This is not a dangerous disease for the vast majority of those that are not elderly or have commorbities (sp?)
7. Mask mandates are not supported by studies and should be optional
8. Death data is highly suspect
9. Variants have not proven to be more lethal, just spread faster
10. Vaccines are not needed for a disease that has such a low mortality rate
11. My not getting a vaccine poses no risk to third parties

So let's get in to it:

1. Yeah lockdowns are atrocious, but I think for most of the pandemic there wasn't really a lockdown (ie a stay at home order). Mostly, some businesses were forced to close or change their business model, areas of high likelihood of spreading were closed, but most people were able to go outside and do their thing. You mention you were playing football throughout, doesn't really sound like a lockdown to me. When a lockdown was in place, it didn't last longer than a month. Anyways, that's my 0.02 based on my experience in the US, don't think the UK has been too different.

2. The thing you have to remember here is that the Swedish are also Swedish. If you look at traffic data, facebook etc you'll realize that while there was no government mandate to lock down, the Swedish people still self-isolated, started wearing masks, etc. And even with that in mind, if you compare their deaths/1000 to their neighbors they did much worse than other scandinavian countries. Which is to say, yes maybe a Swedish model wouldve worked, but only if people are as good at being responsible as the Swedish people, which at least here in the US would've failed spectacularly.

3. Don't know enough but seems likely

4. Yup also probably true. Here's an article after your heart: https://unherd.com/2021/02/the-fantasy-of-english-freedom/

5. Yeah this is true, but it was true at times in March and again in December, and the danger of an overrun system should not be ignored (like in Milan or Wuhan).

6. Also true, but the danger is not really in getting it, but in giving the virus another host from which it can then infect someone else.

7. It makes a lot of sense to use masks to stop the virus, they decrease the reach of the virus significantly from 2m to just around a person and protects both the wearer and those around him. It's a minor inconvenience at worst and if we had to wait around for scientific studies we would take no actions until 2025. Mask mandates made a lot of sense and should continue.

8. Sure, but if anything is underreported, not overreported. Look at what's happening in NY with Cuomo. People have been trying to throw this under the rug, not exaggerate it.

9. They're kinda the same thing, since a variant with more spread is more likely to impact more people and cause more deaths.

10 & 11. Like I said earlier, the problem is not the mortality rate, it's the danger of giving the virus another host to live in, from which it can then impact someone who is truly at risk. So yes I'd say people should get vaccinated even if they're not afraid of the virus for themselves, and country's should be able to prevent people from coming into their countries without the appropriate vaccines (as they currently do for other vaccines already).
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Post by Babun Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:50 am

In support of BC I'll add my 1€ to the issue: Swedes followed the mask rules, isolated themselves as much as possible etc. without the government telling them anything.
Source: my uncle, his wife (Swede) and their family live there, we've been in extensive contact so whatever you're theorycrafting form outside is not true (@Franchise).
What completly debunks whatever you posted besides of what BC mentioned is the situation in Manau/Brazil. There, you had exactly the scenario you mentioned for real. Countless people have died even though the population over there is A LOT younger in average than in Europe, they didn't give two fucks about any rule, in the end about 80% had the sickness. Then the new mutation has arrived and is ravaging the place again anew even though they're supposed to be immune:
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-brazil-variant-cases-uk-latest-b1810333.html

On the mathematical side, if the probability of being admitted to ICU is 5% and the spread rate is 1,7 ( an increase of 70% ) then 5%*1,7=8,5%, admission rate to ICUs would almost double during the same time frame.
Just because you prefere to disregard facts and findings doesn't mean you're right in your approach.

Where we could argue:
1. Mask usage
They make no sense outdoors. It's hard enough to breathe in them as it is. Where the masks come handy are indoors with other people. Getting the Wuhan virus is based on probability, to get sick a certain amount of the virus load is needed. Masks reduce the probability of getting the virus load but don't totally protect as many think. If you stay with a sick person for a prolonged time frame in an enclosed room you'll probably get the Wuhan virus anyways. The mask is still useful even in that scenario. The amount of virus load inhaled can determine how severe the sickness may be (comparable to fire ignition). Inhaling a huge chunk directly into the lungs may cause irreversible damage before the immune system is able to fight back. The case was observed in Wuhan and Bergamo with young doctors/nurses who were too close to the patients without proper surgial or FPP2-3 masks. Getting a lighter load gives the immune system more time to react, you might get sick but come out immune and not crippled anyway with the long covid and the sort.
2. Anti corona measures:
They differ from country to country. The lockdown we have in Germany is incomparable to the one in Italy or UK for example. Every country took different measures which is understandable. London has got for example one of the highest population density in western Europe, you have to stricter there than in Scotland for example.
In case of UK (because you keep mentioning them), without knowing further internal info (because I don't) I'd look at the number of infections, amount of deaths, death rate, infection rate und at economical damage caused by lockdowns. UK's Wuhan virus handling has been atrocious with uncontrolled infections at the start, too lazy, late rate reaction to the pandemic which led to the British mutation. Even though UK had 2 months headstart after China and Italy published everything, the gouvernment was virtually unprepared which led to the highest amount of deaths, infections in all Europe (still the case). At some point, UK was forced to go into a lockdown like all the other neighbours. Johnson's opportunistic approach with the vaccinations is paying off now which covers somewhat all the blunders they did at the start and during the pandemic. The pandemic isn't over yet, we'll see.
Economically speaking, brexit is going to damage the economy long term and happened during the pandemic which causes even more frictions. Lockdowns at the start were measures to buy time.  The way they are now doesn't make sense anymore, I agree. There's a need for concepts for how to go on with the everyday life alongside the Wuhan virus. I still don't agree with your approach of going on as if nothing happed (@Franchise), again have a look at Manau.
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Post by rincon Tue Mar 16, 2021 1:16 pm

@The Franchise wrote:Lockdowns are a blunt tool which do not work as proclaimed. Akin to cutting off your leg because you tore your ACL.

There is absolutely no correlation, let alone causational link between severity of lockdown and lowered mortality.

This isn't true. Maybe if you refer specifically to lockdowns in the UK, there I don't know the specifics about how they were implemented. It certainly isn't true for lockdowns as a whole though.

In Belgium for example, where I live, without fail when the lockdowns were imposed and lifted the cases/death reacted exactly in the way you would expect. As we decreased contact cases fell, and as we increased contact cases rose. Because of course it does, the more we are in contact the more a virus will find a new host to infect and the epidemic will spread more quickly.

The Coronavirus Thread - Part 3 - Page 17 Covid_10


There are two extremely well defined covid waves in Belgium because of how the government has applied lockdowns. When the lockdown was very strict back in the pandemic start in Europe it plummeted the curve. After relaxing measures it started to increase again. When we entered a second wave in the Fall of last year and cases spiked another (softer) lockdown was imposed and the curved was brought down again. The softer lockdown, as expected, brought down the curve less sharply that initial strict lockdown. By now, every other week some measures are being relaxed while vaccines are administered, so the covid cases/deaths hover around an expected value, not at zero since there is no strict lockdown anymore.

What is happening now is that things are opening but the government is hesitant to open everything before more vaccines are administered. So they've said that more restrictions will be lifted after the easter holiday to avoid that mess.

The timing and nature of the lockdowns is up for discussion as to what was too much or too little, but there is no doubt that restricting hosts to a virus slows down it's spread.
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Post by The Franchise Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:27 pm

@BC

I am not sure the best way to formulate this discussion, I feel we could both miss points the other is making because we both obviously have to do alot of typing. I will do my best not to miss some points as I think you have done the same for me. But apologies beforehand if I miss something, especially if its important.

The 1-11 points you made about my views are more or less right. There is no need to be picky with the odd incorrect wording here or there as im sure they will come up later.


1. No, there most certainly IS a lockdown in place here in the UK. Of course defining a lockdown is troublesome but let me explain in a second.

But before that, we have this the completely wrong way round. Freedom isnt something the government decides we should or shouldn't have, it is not for them to give or not to give. They have removed them (regardless of to what degree or form) under the notion of an exceptional circumstance. Fortunately, it is not exceptional circumstance and I strongly question if it ever was. The entire justification, which got approval from the house, was on the basis that the NHS would otherwise collapse. This did not happen, was never going to with or without a lockdown) and more importantly absolutely will not now.

In fact, the collapse was nothing more than a projection of computer modelling which proved to be wrong almost immediately and when transferred to non-locked countries were also completely wrong.

Yet changes have not happened as goal posts continue to shift and now have been completely removed.

Yes, I have been able to play football, but I am breaking the law to do so. Also this is firstly not with usual regularity, at a place with actual facilities nor with the usual group of people. This is actually not a complaint of mine, even though it is an inconvenience, it would be selfish to use this as an example. I only mentioned it to be honest and not try and hide any of my intentions or actions. My freedoms consist of far more than playing regular football and the vast majority have far more complex problems.

As I said, the collateral damage is absolutely tremendous and will be worse in time.

The latest lockdown here has been from Dec and will run in some form untill June. Along the way some things MAY change but up until the end of this month at least, we have been allowed by law to do 2 things. 1 hour of exercise (without any facilities obviously) and leave for essential reasons (you cant work from home, food shopping and so on). Nothing else is legal.

Barbershops, salons, restaurants, gyms, council/gov sports fields, sports clubs, youth sports, retail, nightlife, small businesses which dont sell food and many others have been closed. This is the 3rd version of this situation with the only respite being summer, but with gradual opening to some of those places, not all at once.

So to say, some businesses have closed to forced to change is not accurate. The vast majority have been forced to closed and many cannot change to the point of more than breaking even from a financial point of view. I know of restaurants who now do a take away service but this doesnt cover the cost of business, let alone pay employees and so on. I am sure this is the norm and many have clearly closed for good.

Lockdowns at best are the luxury of the rich and well off. For the majority of the people it is not viable on many levels. I wont keep beating this drum because I sense you mostly agree.


2. First part, you mentioned here that many have made the choice to isolate or wear masks in Sweden. I have seen images to the contrary but it isnt important, I will take what you say as having much truth because I have seen evidence of that also. But that right there is the point, it was their personal choice to do so. It is not appropriate to mandate. This is a crucial point.

Second, you say the death per 1000 is worse. I say that when you adjust for important factors, I disagree. I can post the charts from official sources, but it would take alot of effort, but if you want I can do it. Regardless, I have in front of me right now "age standardised mortality" and Sweden is below Denmark and above Norway. More importantly, comparing Sweden in 2020 to each of the years going back to 2014, there is nothing to suggest an abnormal year. Furthermore, comparing under 65y mortality, we see a similar picture. Less than Denmark, more than Norway, not signifanctly different to the last 6 years.

You close with saying it may have worked as in Sweden if people in England for example, were as responsible as the Swedes. I consider this an assumption without much basis. What do you consider responsible? I have seen people in salons and shopping malls maskless...something not seen in the UK. So I need some explanation on that one.

I wont go into the US because my knowledge is limited. But I do find it intresting to compare Florida with its aged population to California.

Overall, the UK have not done well by any measure and the onus on proof is on pro lockdowners to prove their worthwhile value which has yet to happen outside modelling which leaves out various levels of variables.

I have to mention however, the entire discussion hinges on the understanding for PCR. We say one country is doing better or worse than another based on PCR cases and deaths, that in itself is wrong. I believe strongly, excess mortality is much better figure to use as it cannot be manipulated as PCR has been. Different countries using different cycle threshold's (all of whom I know of are WAY over the recommended value) make all the talk of "cases" and "deaths" extremely muddy water.

3-5 we are in large agreement so I will save your eyes and my hands.

6. Yes, giving it to someone who falls under the bracket of vulnerable is not ideal. Which is why the idea of "focused protection" which has been suggested from day 1 by many experts makes alot of sense. This option was always one the table and ignored in favour of something which is clearly not working. Those who are at risk, must and should be helped. But that doesnt include the locking up of healthy citizens.

7. Completely disagree. You will be unable to link me to any study which shows they work, as you would agree. You cannot say they "decrease the risk" with absolutely nothing to back that up. The only study done since this started I am aware of, was in Denmark which show they have no clear positive impact.

Regardless, this is the key point. Mandate vs voluntary. Absolutely no need for them be mandated, because there is no proof of them working. You say its a minor inconvenience, well I disagree. My partner has some real breathing issues due to various conditions, her wearing a mask is an absolute disaster and yet because she listens to all the quackery and follows the rules she suffers.

True, this is the minority, most people will be fine wearing it I agree. But I come back to the point, there is no proof they work and I would bet my bottom dollar no study will convince they do indeed work. Especially not in the middle of summer when they were mandated here. Surely, once the mandate came into effect we would see a change in the precious case numbers? There was no change whatsoever and this has been observed in many countries.

8. We do not agree here. See my PCR rant earlier. It is not fit for purpose. I can go in to more detail but I would have guessed you was familar with the PCR problem already.

9. No, it is indeed not the same thing. Where do we see this in the data? I dont really want to spend much time discussing this issue, to me its not at all signifcant in terms of the lockdown. There are surely 3 or 4 more important justifications (or lack there of) for a lockdown than variants.

10 and 11. Countries can prevent others from coming in if that is their desire. I agree. I completely disagree with it, but in the end that is the decision of each country which I have no right to speak on. I would not compare COVID to other countries which require vax's like yellow fever like the Congo and neither should you. We are talking about 20% to 50% death rate to those who contract it, Covid's rate is up for debate but we both know it is under 1% and im being generous as to not go into that grey area.

But it does seem, some countries like Turkey have some sense and are not demanding this.

You have failed (to me) to explain why I should get a vaccine. If those at risk are vaccinated, they are indeed no longer at risk? Where am I going wrong here?

If they are no longer at risk, how can un-vaccinated me pose any danger to them? Perhaps I am not reading your explanation correctly but I am not getting it.

The last I checked the Nuremberg Code is still a thing. The first point being voluntary consent of the human subject is absolutely essential. My consent is not given and putting up roadblocks to crush my consent is absolutely wrong. I do not take the flu jab, I have not visited a hospital or doc in decades now. This will not change. The result of these mandatory vaccines is simply a 2 tiered society akin to apartied. I already see this Isreal and I am sure the same will happen elsewhere.

I wont even get into the questionable nature of the vaccine itself. I dont have proof of anything, but there is some worrying things to point to. But I do not want this to detract from my main point, a great vaccine or not, it is absolutely not needed.


I know others have commented. I will come back to those soon.
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Post by El Gunner Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:39 pm

Dani holy shit, welcome back :bow:
we need more posters with your insight and critical analysis here
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Post by rincon Tue Mar 16, 2021 6:49 pm

@The Franchise wrote:
You have failed (to me) to explain why I should get a vaccine. If those at risk are vaccinated, they are indeed no longer at risk? Where am I going wrong here?

If they are no longer at risk, how can un-vaccinated me pose any danger to them? Perhaps I am not reading your explanation correctly but I am not getting it.


You should get a vaccine because you should act in a way that if everyone in society act like you, then things work out. If no one gets a vaccine then millions more will die, and many more millions will get sick and suffer any number of complications.

Vavcines (these ones at least) don't offer 100% protection. There are also vulnerable people who are not able to get vaccinated due to other complications with their immune systems. The idea is to protect those at risk, by getting vaccinated you diminish the spread of the virus and reduce the underlying risk of everyone else.

The few that are vaccinated but it wasn't effective on them will be more protected if their neighbors are vaccinated as well. The few that want to, but cannot get vaccines will also be given a chance if those around them are immune and not carrying the virus.

We also don't know how long immunity lasts. Not having enough immune people (via vaccination or recent illness) will extend the pandemic, and may have us fall on the same situation after immunity starts to wear off. Reaching herd immunity is important so that the virus is as rare as possible.

If you want to see for an economic point of view then is it also important to vaccinate. It is MUCH cheaper to vaccinate than to treat an illness in a hospital for those who unexpectedly will develop complications. That is without even factoring in the economic costs of millions of sick people staying at home, and the burden on the health system.

The best way to restart life is to do so in a way that ensures that we don't fall straight back to this hole again.
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Post by rincon Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:01 pm

@The Franchise wrote:
7. Completely disagree. You will be unable to link me to any study which shows they work, as you would agree. You cannot say they "decrease the risk" with absolutely nothing to back that up. The only study done since this started I am aware of, was in Denmark which show they have no clear positive impact.

Regardless, this is the key point. Mandate vs voluntary. Absolutely no need for them be mandated, because there is no proof of them working. You say its a minor inconvenience, well I disagree. My partner has some real breathing issues due to various conditions, her wearing a mask is an absolute disaster and yet because she listens to all the quackery and follows the rules she suffers.

True, this is the minority, most people will be fine wearing it I agree. But I come back to the point, there is no proof they work and I would bet my bottom dollar no study will convince they do indeed work. Especially not in the middle of summer when they were mandated here. Surely, once the mandate came into effect we would see a change in the precious case numbers? There was no change whatsoever and this has been observed in many countries.

You are asking for a link to studies which show the effect of masks and saying BC would be unable to link you one. Have you looked? The most basic search of scientific literature will give you what you ask.

https://scholar.google.com/scholar?hl=en&as_sdt=0%2C5&q=masks+covid+19&oq=masks+co
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Post by The Franchise Tue Mar 16, 2021 7:29 pm

Rincon. I dont mind the debate, but its impossible for me to argue with 3 people as you post your reply and then comment on the reply I gave to BC. I dont know If I should wait for his reply, reply to your original or reply to your response to my response from his response Laughing

Im going to ignore your latest post for the time being. Hope you understand.
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Post by The Franchise Tue Mar 16, 2021 8:08 pm

@Babun

For your uncle, I have one of my good friends who lives in Sweden (I lived in Denmark, so you end up with friends from the Nordics one way or the other) and he and his family do not do as your saying. Lets not get caught in the weeds of anecdotal evidence. You havent proven any more than I have and this is a minor issue, the key point which you are failing to address is mandatory v compulsory. Untill that is spoken of, I have nothing more to talk about.

Brazil? Many people have died in Brazil, yes. People unfortunately are not immortal. People have died here too, the UK is performing terriblly. You seem to not understand my point. I didnt claim no lockdown = less deaths or lockdown = more deaths. My claim is simple and I can back it up easily, there is no correlation between lockdown severity and mortality. This is a fact you cannot escape. And even if there was correlation, this is not enough, we need direct causation to prove the positive value. So you talking about how bad Brazil has done, is totally irrelevant, even if I am sorry for those Brazilians.


Before the mathematics, please do not let your passions get the best of you. Just because there are people out there who speak without using facts and disagree with them, doesnt mean anyone with similar argument is ignoring them. So far, I am the only one mentioning facts here, not BC. Which by the way is fine, they have not been needed from his point of view. But I have mentioned a number of facts and have or will counter any facts given.

As for the Maths.

"the probability of being admitted to ICU is 5%"

Link. Source. something? I will go on record now, 5% of people who test PCR positive DO NOT get admitted to the ICU. If you tell me 5% of hospital admissions end up in ICU, thats a different story but I am not here to make your arguement for you. Clear that one up.

The R value you mention also is not accurate to the UK. I cannot speak about other places, I havent looked into it. But if your talking about the UK, you are sadly mistaken.


Masks. See my comments above. The issue is mandatory vs compulsory.  

You go a long way around the houses but do not get to the central theme here. Masks will not stop you getting the virus, you know that as well as I do I believe. Is it possible they have some small impact? Maybe. It is however, not proven at all. What is logical is, people who are at risk should protect themselves. The rest of us choose what level of risk we are willing to take. The only situation where this is unaccepted is if my choice to disregard my health (from your point of view) creates a burden on the hospitals it can not cope with. This is not the case, hospitals are not in this situation and I know this first hand because it is my business to know this. Again, I am speaking about the UK. The only hint of concern of this was based again on modelling which totally ignore various factors, including the work of vaccination on the vulnerable.


"London has got for example one of the highest population density in western Europe, you have to stricter there than in Scotland for example"


And yet, Scotland have had a longer, harsher lockdown than we have. So to pretend these measures have been well thought out and considered all factors is clearly wrong. I keep mentioning the UK because that is where I live and where I have the most knowledge and absolute facts which I practically can not be wrong about.

No, I will not look at the number of infections, amount of deaths, death rate and infection rate because they are based on PCR. I have explained already why that is wrong, but if you want more detail we can go into it.


The vaccine is paying off now? Is this despite the curves fall in the same shape as non-vaccinated countries? Funny that.

The Pandemic is not over? The casemedic is not over, that is indeed true. Come winter, we will lockdown again for no reason.

I dont know why you claim we should do nothing. I think I have made it clear now focused protection was the way to go and places like Sweden are indeed proof of that.
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Post by The Franchise Tue Mar 16, 2021 8:27 pm

@Rincon


Belgium with a very similar population with Sweden, have had it worse despite you being in lockdown and Sweden not being in one. Please explain why you think that is?

Caes fell and rose with the lockdown. That is correlation, not causation. How do I know this? Because the same has been seen in countries that did not lock down and didnt happen in places which did. There is no pattern to it, that is obvious. Perhaps I should post a nice graph to prove it but I will only do that work if needed. This doesnt mean that in Belgium cases didnt rise and fall to coincide with the lockdown, but it does mean that principle is absolutely not universal and there is no trend spanning acrosses countries. To prove that lockdown's work, the same effect has to be seen in all countries but I would settle on even the majority. Yet this is not the case.


Lockdown's at best, kick the can down the road as far as I can tell. Whoever you think you will save now (and I stress think), will unfortunately bite the dust 6 months or a year later. It is the harsh reality which I dont like to say but that is the case. Now, if you tell me saving those people via lockdowns came at no or very little cost to other people I still wouldnt agree but it is at least reasonable argument. But locking down healthy people is not the answer because it ruins more lives down the road. The number of people who have been denied access to other health services is disgraceful and then we get into peoples business and jobs, mental health, children denied schooling and many more.

Public health is important, not saving the world from 1 single disease. The amount of untreated undiagnosed patients will far outweigh the people you think you will save with a lockdown. I say save, just for your benefit, because there is no proof of that at all.

I cannot see the images you posted because my work PC doesnt allow. I will use my own soon to see those images but if I understand them as you describe then I hope my comments above address them.


Last edited by The Franchise on Tue Mar 16, 2021 8:40 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by El Gunner Tue Mar 16, 2021 8:32 pm

@The Franchise wrote:Lockdown's at best, kick the can down the road as far as I can tell. Whoever you think you will save now (and I stress think), will unfortunately bite the dust 6 months or a year later. It is the harsh reality which I dont like to say but that is the case. Now, if you tell me saving those people via lockdowns came at no or very little cost to other people I still wouldnt agree but it is at least reasonable argument. But locking down healthy people is not the answer because it ruins more lives down the road. The number of people who have been denied access to other health services is disgraceful and then we get into peoples business and jobs, mental health, children denied schooling and many more.
FINALLLEHHH another person with brain cells in this forum :bow:
welcome to the ministry of Pastor ElGunnerifico
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Post by Arquitecto Tue Mar 16, 2021 8:52 pm

Not to hang on the coattails of Dani's well thought out debate but he has said what I have been thinking for some months now slowly.

And people listening to Lockdown cause Government decrees it is an utter joke and there is no viable proof that lockdowns work either.

It has burned a hole in my businesses, is utterly passive at best and I am not living another year like this. Call it what you will.

That being said the arguments for it are also very well-thought out but this is a recent change of mind through travel and quite frankly, basic logic.
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Post by Jay29 Tue Mar 16, 2021 8:57 pm

I backed the March 2019 lockdown because the UK was unprepared and needed time to build knowledge and come up with measures for handling the virus. Perhaps hindsight will prove all that was unnecessary but, at the time, it seemed the right thing to do. I was terrified of this thing.

But to require two more lockdowns after that... I have lots of doubts. There was ample time to learn from earlier mistakes and come up with methods to protect the vulnerable. Instead, we got scenarios where vulnerable people were unable to shield themselves because the government decided to end its financial support and encouraged to return to work "where possible". The major shopping outlets were open the entire time and, as far as I'm aware, no major outbreaks were traced back to them, so why the need to close all non-essential retail? Your chances of picking up the virus in a sparsely populated shop you visit for less than five minutes are tiny.

For pubs, restaurants, and other indoor venues you spend a lot of time at, I could understand it. The chance of infection goes up in those places. But how high is it? Schools, for instance, were a major concern because of densely packed classrooms, but teachers weren't being admitted to the hospital left and right while they were open and the kids were doing just fine with the virus. Was there really a need to close them all down as well, and have the kids deal with this horrible home teaching over Zoom or Teams instead?

In reality, what it comes down to is the individual unintentionally or recklessly passing it onto the vulnerable in situations where said vulnerable aren't protected. We then get into the realms of personal responsibility - people taking actions on their own to protect themselves and others - and how much a government should be regulating and monitoring that. I don't really have an answer for this. I, for one, wouldn't trust a stranger to not pass a virus onto me. At the same time, I can dictate, to an extent, who I interact with and how many people I interact with so if I'm that concerned about it, my options are obvious. I can say that since my situation gives me that freedom, but I know other people aren't so fortunate. At which point, some government intervention is necessary... which I guess brings me back to the original point about specific, targeted action to protect vulnerable people. Track and trace was supposed to assist us in this regard, but has been a total mess. In some respects, these recent lockdowns stem from the complete failure of that system.

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Post by rincon Tue Mar 16, 2021 9:19 pm

@The Franchise wrote:@Rincon


Belgium with a very similar population with Sweden, have had it worse despite you being in lockdown and Sweden not being in one. Please explain why you think that is?
.

Because comparing simply via population is not very meaningful. Population density is a much stronger factor in viral spread. It doesn't matter how many people you have but how close and in contact they are.

Belgium has one of the highest population densities in the world. 11m people in a tiny space.

Belgium: 380 people/km2
Sweden: 25 people/km2

That is a factor of 15. Its an incomparable situation. If you have few people across empty land there is no need to be overly strict, no point in locking down. But in a country where the entirety of it is urbanised the situation is much more delicate.

The situation of Belgium is comparable to The Netherlands, or to the most densely populated urban regions of other countries. Compare Sweden to Norway or Finland instead to have better metrics.

It is senseless to argue that a virus' rate of spread is not directly correlated with the availability of hosts in its vicinity. If you reduce the amount of hosts for the virus, as in with inmunity or lack of close contact between people, you lower the rate. Its nothing controversial in virology.
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Post by CBarca Tue Mar 16, 2021 10:55 pm

@El Gunner wrote:
@The Franchise wrote:Lockdown's at best, kick the can down the road as far as I can tell. Whoever you think you will save now (and I stress think), will unfortunately bite the dust 6 months or a year later. It is the harsh reality which I dont like to say but that is the case. Now, if you tell me saving those people via lockdowns came at no or very little cost to other people I still wouldnt agree but it is at least reasonable argument. But locking down healthy people is not the answer because it ruins more lives down the road. The number of people who have been denied access to other health services is disgraceful and then we get into peoples business and jobs, mental health, children denied schooling and many more.
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If vaccines didn't exist, Dani would be right. You would be buying time at that moment, only for people to end up getting sick anyway.

Luckily, vaccines exist. Now we can achieve herd immunity without going through the amount of infection and deaths required to get herd immunity naturally.

"But what about the new variants?" That's a good question. We also bought time and used that time to give ourselves a much stronger understanding of vaccine development as it relates to COVID. Now we can develop new vaccines, if required, quicker.

To me, the only case where Dani is correct here (@ElG as well) is that if you argue the overall morbidity and mortality from shelter-at-home policies was greater than if we had done absolutely nothing this entire time.

We're past 2.5 million deaths, and that's with the use of extensive shelter at home policies. It's anyone's guess what that number would be if we did nothing, maybe you can guess twice as bad? I'm not sure. Still, it's hard for me to imagine shelter-at-home had a worse morbidity/mortality than that. With all due respect to the terrible ways that shelter-at-home policies have affected a good number of people.
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Post by Babun Wed Mar 17, 2021 3:06 pm

@Franchise
CBarca's point stands, there is light at the end of the tunnel (vaccinations). I'm still a proponent of controlled reopening of everything despite the virus for two reasons:
1. Small and school children had it really bad. I saw the effects on their behaviour first hand. In any healthy society, children are the most protected people because they're the future. I can't and won't accept any type of restrictions which sacrifice their childhood for the survival of old farts. I'm conservative like that.
2. There might be mutations which can escape current vaccinations. After a year long lockdown marathon, another one isn't feasible if there'll be a mutation/mutations which can escape immunity from the previous waves like the one in Manau/Brazil. A plan B should be in place and life has to go on somehow.
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Post by The Franchise Wed Mar 17, 2021 7:20 pm

@Jay29 re; the justification for lockdown 1.

The first lockdown in March of last year, was on some level acceptable even to me.

I still didnt agree because it was a matter of proportion and at no point was there evidence brought forward as to how and why lockdown works and what collateral damage will be causes by it. In short, there was no cost-benefit analysis which is common place in all big gov decisions. As I said, to this day it has not been done.

But again, I was willing to support the 1st lockdown on some level as it was sold on the notion that the NHS needed the time to cope with the increased pressure and after a suitable number of weeks it would no longer be needed.

But when NHS pressure subsided, the lockdown did not. When I read the "WHO 2019 pandemic guidelines" which had exactly planned for such a situation and saw it was totally scraped due because of quickly debunked computer modelling and extended versions of lockdown continued this is when it became very clear a grave mistake had been made.
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