The Coronavirus Thread - Part 3

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Post by Babun Sun Jan 24, 2021 1:04 am

@zigra wrote:
@Babun wrote:
@RealGunner wrote:As much as i'd like to blame the government, it's human nature which is probably the biggest factor in this uncontrollable surge.


I think it's not possible to contain the virus during a cold winter when everyone resides indoors no matter how desciplined people are while they're still active and working. The only measures which would help would be the draconian ones China did with the Wuhan population last year. You can't do that in Europe, forget about it. All types of lockdowns are half assed, the reduce the incidence at most but don't solve the problem.
It's possible in South Korea though. Probably in other countries as well? Idk tbf.
The winter is comparable to the one in Germany btw and the lockdown isn't as "tough" as it is in Germany.

German, better said EU data protection laws prevent intrusive contact tracing with disregard to privacy the way South Korea does it with the IT tech behind. I'm sure you're familiar with:
DSGVO
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datenschutz-Grundverordnung
Also, someone said before, S.Korea is almost an Island, Germany is in the heart of Europe, same with France and Italy. They HAVE to work together.

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Post by Babun Sun Jan 24, 2021 1:14 am

Other news:
Apparently, the British mutant Wuhan virus is deadlier by at least 30%, max 90%.The South African mutant makes jabs by more tha 50% (evades antibodies developed by the vaccine) less effective, also the same mutant causes higher mortality rate among young people in Africa (alarming!). Africa's population is pretty young in general, 1-2% death rate spells big trouble. Both variant were found in England, Germany, France and Italy..

Source:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/22/new-uk-covid-variant-may-be-more-deadly-says-boris-johnson
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Sun Jan 24, 2021 2:56 am



The brazilian govt used ms paint to add masks to their official pictures Laughing
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Post by RealGunner Sun Jan 24, 2021 3:24 am

lmaoooooooooooooooooooooo
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Post by zigra Sun Jan 24, 2021 6:00 am

@Babun wrote:
@zigra wrote:
@Babun wrote:

I think it's not possible to contain the virus during a cold winter when everyone resides indoors no matter how desciplined people are while they're still active and working. The only measures which would help would be the draconian ones China did with the Wuhan population last year. You can't do that in Europe, forget about it. All types of lockdowns are half assed, the reduce the incidence at most but don't solve the problem.
It's possible in South Korea though. Probably in other countries as well? Idk tbf.
The winter is comparable to the one in Germany btw and the lockdown isn't as "tough" as it is in Germany.

German, better said EU data protection laws prevent intrusive contact tracing with disregard to privacy the way South Korea does it with the IT tech behind. I'm sure you're familiar with:
DSGVO
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datenschutz-Grundverordnung
Also, someone said before, S.Korea is almost an Island, Germany is in the heart of Europe, same with France and Italy. They HAVE to work together.

Oh yeah truth be told I'm actually far too familiar with it for my liking. Anyway I'm not really disputing that it helped South Korea. Still though they never got rid of the virus and faced exponential growth of the daily infection numbers as well. It's just that in my opinion the main difference ist the timing of when the countries acted. Germany went into lockdown (light) at the start of November when cases were already out of control. It could have happened sooner just like the lockdown could've been stricter.

But I guess you just can't act proactively in Germany (and I suppose the same is true for most european countries). Exponential growth leads to high numbers - who could've known?
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Post by Babun Sun Jan 24, 2021 7:01 pm

https://www.latimes.com/science/story/2021-01-23/coronavirus-california-strain-homegrown
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Thu Jan 28, 2021 12:57 pm

Interesting thread on the AstraZaneca delays for the EU:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1354019151690522624.html

Looks like the EC did botch this up
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Post by Babun Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:17 pm

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:Interesting thread on the AstraZaneca delays for the EU:

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1354019151690522624.html

Looks like the EC did botch this up

That's the problem:
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13872962/uk-covid-vaccine-supply-5-5-doses/
Apparently, UK has got more than enough already but Astrazeneca refuses to supply EU with the vaccines made in the UK factories. First come first served is alright but if you have a clear surplus and the order is lagging elsewhere you don't cut the delivery by 75% for the second client who paid 370 million € in advance to make the production possible (UK also did).
What is true though EU botched up the contract with "best" effort and no fine clauses in it. What could happen is EU blocking Pfizer vaccines going to UK and all business relation post Brexit between the EU and UK. Bullying would be an understatement.
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Post by RealGunner Sat Jan 30, 2021 9:12 am



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Post by BarrileteCosmico Tue Feb 02, 2021 8:42 am

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:Apparently the EU has dragged its feet and now does not have enough vaccines to achieve herd immunity. Could the US end up looking like the best COVID manager after all?

https://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/the-planning-disaster-germany-and-europe-could-fall-short-on-vaccine-supplies-a-3db4702d-ae23-4e85-85b7-20145a898abd

@VivaStPauli wrote:Eh, that article was kind of clickbaity, once you follow that line of argument a bit, it turns out that it's just that BioNTech ended up saying they'd produce a bit less vaccines than they thought during their first 3 months because the suppliers didn't come through, and the article was written before the Moderna vaccine was approved IIRC (the article is 5 days old by now).

I mean I'm always open to the idea that bureaucracy moves slowly, but I think in this case it's pretty much a non-issue, can't order stuff that can't be produced.


More on this now:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-01-30/faced-with-a-vaccine-emergency-the-eu-made-an-enemy-of-everyone

https://www.politico.eu/article/europe-coronavirus-vaccine-struggle-pfizer-biontech-astrazeneca/

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Post by Babun Tue Feb 02, 2021 8:55 pm

The end result is what counts. As of now, we don't have enough vaccines so either way they f***ed up, people are dying. I don't want excuses I want constructive plans how it is going to go from now on. And f*** von der Leyen!
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Post by rincon Tue Feb 02, 2021 11:14 pm

Not sure this is something to just pin on von der Leyen. In the end it was the EU's attempt at a united effort in order to provide poorer countries in the bloc with similar vaccines vs individual countries fighting against that.

If member states had agreed on this earlier and in a more unified way, would it have been better? surely.

Was the unified vaccination strategy a good or a bad idea? debatable, but in the end it is the EU's mandate to act as a union. Can't really fault them for trying that.

The member states retain autonomy in this regard and everyone chose and agreed to certain things. A telling thing from that politico article is that the Netherlands is doing so poorly, while being rich, simply because they didn't prepare for vaccine distribution. So already having the vaccine, they are still not distributing it efficiently, something that is left 100% to the member states.

There is a lot of blame to go to a lot of places.
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Post by Babun Wed Feb 03, 2021 4:29 am

@rincon wrote:Not sure this is something to just pin on von der Leyen. In the end it was the EU's attempt at a united effort in order to provide poorer countries in the bloc with similar vaccines vs individual countries fighting against that.

If member states had agreed on this earlier and in a more unified way, would it have been better? surely.

Was the unified vaccination strategy a good or a bad idea? debatable, but in the end it is the EU's mandate to act as a union. Can't really fault them for trying that.

The member states retain autonomy in this regard and everyone chose and agreed to certain things. A telling thing from that politico article is that the Netherlands is doing so poorly, while being rich, simply because they didn't prepare for vaccine distribution. So already having the vaccine, they are still not distributing it efficiently, something that is left 100% to the member states.

There is a lot of blame to go to a lot of places.

You can't optimize the delivery if there's nothing there in the first place Laughing
The idea about the European solution wasn't bad, the execution was. Every single day of qarantaine costs billions of € but cheaping out on vaccines was ok..
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Post by rincon Wed Feb 03, 2021 6:34 am

You can definitely prepare to deliver vaccines, which is what most countries did. Its what the article pointed out, they have more vaccine, they just totally failed at preparing to distribute it, and it places the Netherlands, one of the richest countries in the Union, in the bottom 3 places.

There are several levels of mismanagement
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Post by Babun Thu Feb 04, 2021 11:40 pm

Vaccination delay could cost EU economy 90 billion euros - Allianz study
Source

Setbacks due to the US' , China's and other than EU economies faster comeback and running away from the competition not accounted for. Also, setbacks for the educational system will be lasting well into the future..
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Post by RealGunner Sat Feb 06, 2021 6:59 am

UK's vaccination program has been outstanding so far. By Summer everyone should be vaccinated at the current rate.
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Post by Myesyats Sat Feb 06, 2021 7:19 am

same here

with one minor detail: by summer 2022 not 21
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Post by futbol Sat Feb 06, 2021 7:44 am

It's really sweet to vaccinate bunch of 90 years old who are going to statistically die from the next cold within the next 24 months anyway while a 50 year old high-risk patient can't get his hands on a vaccine right now in Germany. News about a doctor who had to steal a vaccine for his ill wife and got fired and police charged him for it. We call this "civilisation" I guess.

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Post by Nishankly Sat Feb 20, 2021 6:35 am

Trying to go home for the first time in 2 years with my ticket booked for mid March but France has banned all international travel recently. It just doesn't end.
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Post by RealGunner Sat Feb 20, 2021 7:06 am

Have you tried a ferry?
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Post by Nishankly Sat Feb 20, 2021 7:09 am

@RealGunner wrote:Have you tried a ferry?


GL family HQ ain't England m8
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Post by Babun Thu Mar 04, 2021 9:26 pm

The Biden administration is taking the emergence of a new coronavirus strain in New York “very seriously,” White House Chief Medical Advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci said Monday.

The new strain, which researchers are calling B.1.526, is rapidly spreading in New York City and carries a mutation that could weaken the effectiveness of vaccines, according to The New York Times. The variant first appeared in November and now accounts for about 1-in-4 viral sequences, the Times reports.
https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/01/new-york-variant-fauci-says-biden-administration-is-taking-covid-strain-very-seriously.html

The variant, which is called B.1.427/B.1.429, first caught the attention of scientists in November 2020 and belongs to a lineage – a branch of the coronavirus family tree carrying similar mutations – that is thought to have emerged in May.

The variant has been detected in 19 countries, and all across the US, though limited surveillance has found it concentrated in California.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2021/feb/25/california-coronavirus-variant-covid-vaccine
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Post by Myesyats Fri Mar 05, 2021 11:29 am

Sweden did not lock down and they're at 612 excessive deaths per 1m people? Media wanted us to believe their model failed but it seems they're one of the best currently.

The Coronavirus Thread - Part 3 - Page 16 Comment_1614870829Ij7sEqWLceHqqu07ynPt8C

Shameful record for Poland, we had pres. elections in the summer and they completely ignored Covid during the campaign and we had a shitload of excessive deaths in november. Zero preparation for 2nd wave in addition to our healthcare system being underfunded. The current gov. will answer for this recklessness, moronic populists.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:30 pm

You have to compare Sweden to their neighbors, not European at large. People did end up quarantining, but because they were responsible civic minded people rather than because the govt forced them to.
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Post by Myesyats Fri Mar 05, 2021 1:56 pm

Yeah that's the point. This whole shebang with a mandatory "national lockdown" makes no sense. Just give people directions but don't force them to close. Businesses can easily function with sanitary restrictions, but totally closing by force for longer periods of time was a mistake. Sweden's approach was criticised A LOT at the time for being too liberal. It all depends on the efficiency of your healthcare system though.
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Post by CBarca Sun Mar 07, 2021 3:39 am

Anyone here get the vaccine?

I've got my first dose two days ago and I'm ecstatic. I almost wanted to cry. I haven't thought of the "end" of this thing this entire time, it's easier to accept that COVID was the new normal and to not think of it's end. Ever since my vaccine I've been thinking a lot about how this has all played out. What a wild year.

Still need my second dose on April 1, but I'm nearly there.

Other good news: my state of Wisconsin has been one of the best, by some metrics THE BEST in the entire United Fucking States in vaccine distribution. It's weird, it's almost like the current administration is competent except for our batshit fucking insane state legislature? Gerrymandering can fuck itself
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