Re: The Coronavirus Thread - Part 3

by RealGunner Sat Jan 09, 2021 11:56 am

As much as i'd like to blame the government, it's human nature which is probably the biggest factor in this uncontrollable surge.

by Babun Sun Jan 10, 2021 7:41 am

@RealGunner wrote:As much as i'd like to blame the government, it's human nature which is probably the biggest factor in this uncontrollable surge.

I think it's not possible to contain the virus during a cold winter when everyone resides indoors no matter how desciplined people are while they're still active and working. The only measures which would help would be the draconian ones China did with the Wuhan population last year. You can't do that in Europe, forget about it. All types of lockdowns are half assed, the reduce the incidence at most but don't solve the problem.
I think where the gouvernment can do something would be protecting the vulnerable population (elderly, people with impaired immune system, diabetes, heart problems etc.) as much as possible while the vaccination campaign reaches them. I can tell you UK and Germany are failing big time to keep the vulnerable group out of harm's way.

by RealGunner Sun Jan 10, 2021 8:53 am

BREAKING: Japan finds new variant of Covid virus similar to highly-infectious U.K. strainhttps://t.co/IVW9AnL45X
— Bloomberg (@business) January 10, 2021

by Myesyats Sun Jan 10, 2021 1:38 pm

Meh. They were finding out about new strains in the summer too and then nobody gave a shit because media didnt report it. Now media reports a new strain every week and everyone panics lol. Crazy how people go batshit real quick depending on what is reported.

by BarrileteCosmico Sun Jan 10, 2021 3:29 pm

The media was reporting it back then, but nobody cared because all strains seemed similar enough. Now they're more contagious (UKovid) or the vaccine might not work on them (SAvid), so it's more attention-worthy.

by RealGunner Sun Jan 10, 2021 5:57 pm

If a strain mutates that none of the existing vaccine works then we are truly fucked till 2023

by El Gunner Sun Jan 10, 2021 6:27 pm

why would it be any different in 2023 in such a scenario?

by JespSwe Mon Jan 11, 2021 1:46 am

despite new variants, isnt it from the same coronavirus family hence the goal of vaccine is to target and null the spike protein to not allow to fuse with human respiratory cells?

dunno but i hope its the case. its quite scary to imagine the evolution of virus but hope the vaccine we have still works, plus the others in test phase would come through to become a better one. i read something that there is scientific data that the pfizer vaccine does work against new UK variants and one coming from Africa.

btw vibe and anyone in healthcare, frontline, risk groups, if anyone in this forum got vaccine yet?

by Babun Mon Jan 11, 2021 7:56 am

@JespSwe wrote:despite new variants, isnt it from the same coronavirus family hence the goal of vaccine is to target and null the spike protein to not allow to fuse with human respiratory cells?

dunno but i hope its the case. its quite scary to imagine the evolution of virus but hope the vaccine we have still works, plus the others in test phase would come through to become a better one. i read something that there is scientific data that the pfizer vaccine does work against new UK variants and one coming from Africa.

btw vibe and anyone in healthcare, frontline, risk groups, if anyone in this forum got vaccine yet?

Short version:
The pandemic has to be stopped all around the world otherwise it doesn't matter how many people were vaccinated or who immunised their population first against a strain.

Long version:
The thing is time isn't the most important variable for a virus' mutation pace, the number of infected it is or better said how often a virus replicates. If not controlled like in Brazil now, in UK before or in the US, the virus would replicate more often than influenza (the flu virus) in 30 or 100 seasons (years) alltogether. The chance arises it could potentially infect someone with an impaired immune system and replicate there much more than in hundreds or thousands of infected. All of that would inevitably render current vaccines useless at some point.
This is why leading nations collect billions as of now to help out poorer coutries with their vaccination campaign.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who-sharing/who-says-4-3-billion-urgently-needed-for-vaccine-sharing-scheme-idINKBN283274
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-54309525

China and the US didn't contribute anything as of now Laughing

UK, Japan, Germany and others did..

Important:
As of now, blood donations to hospitals are at an all time low. If you're a healthy young man/woman donate blood. The donation isn't for the Wuhan virus patients but for all other emergencies and treatment. As a bonus, you'll get throroughly checked for underlying health conditions, even in the USA.

by RealGunner Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:35 pm

UK recorded 1564 deaths today. Record since the pandemic began.

Honestly this year is not going to be much different than 2020. More depressingly, i can't see things being normal for years. Looks increasingly likely how we have to deal with flu as well as covid from now on as a seasonal virus

by RealGunner Wed Jan 13, 2021 1:36 pm

@El Gunner wrote:why would it be any different in 2023 in such a scenario?

Better vaccines hopefully.

by El Gunner Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:14 pm

@RealGunner wrote:UK recorded 1564 deaths today. Record since the pandemic began.

Honestly this year is not going to be much different than 2020. More depressingly, i can't see things being normal for years. Looks increasingly likely how we have to deal with flu as well as covid from now on as a seasonal virus

in your part of the world you guys take seasonal precautions/shots for the flu every flu season?

by rincon Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:22 pm

Yeah there are flu shots available every season for whoever wants.

by Myesyats Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:23 pm

@rincon wrote:Yeah there are flu shots available every season for whoever wants.

same

by El Gunner Wed Jan 13, 2021 3:39 pm

okay, thought it was mandatory
it's also an option here

by JespSwe Fri Jan 15, 2021 7:23 am

same here too, also our company pays its employee to get flu shot before - during winter for free.

by JespSwe Fri Jan 15, 2021 7:27 am

@Babun wrote:
@JespSwe wrote:despite new variants, isnt it from the same coronavirus family hence the goal of vaccine is to target and null the spike protein to not allow to fuse with human respiratory cells?

dunno but i hope its the case. its quite scary to imagine the evolution of virus but hope the vaccine we have still works, plus the others in test phase would come through to become a better one. i read something that there is scientific data that the pfizer vaccine does work against new UK variants and one coming from Africa.

btw vibe and anyone in healthcare, frontline, risk groups, if anyone in this forum got vaccine yet?
Short version:
The pandemic has to be stopped all around the world otherwise it doesn't matter how many people were vaccinated or who immunised their population first against a strain.

Long version:
The thing is time isn't the most important variable for a virus' mutation pace, the number of infected it is or better said how often a virus replicates. If not controlled like in Brazil now, in UK before or in the US, the virus would replicate more often than influenza (the flu virus) in 30 or 100 seasons (years) alltogether. The chance arises it could potentially infect someone with an impaired immune system and replicate there much more than in hundreds or thousands of infected. All of that would inevitably render current vaccines useless at some point.
This is why leading nations collect billions as of now to help out poorer coutries with their vaccination campaign.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-who-sharing/who-says-4-3-billion-urgently-needed-for-vaccine-sharing-scheme-idINKBN283274
https://www.bbc.com/news/av/uk-54309525

China and the US didn't contribute anything as of now UK, Japan, Germany and others did..

Important:
As of now, blood donations to hospitals are at an all time low. If you're a healthy young man/woman donate blood. The donation isn't for the Wuhan virus patients but for all other emergencies and treatment. As a bonus, you'll get throroughly checked for underlying health conditions, even in the USA.

Moderna CEO recently said that depending on new strains they can also go on to modify vaccine for efficacy without being too costly nor affecting its quality. what are the chances down the line its going to be like a regular flu vaccine every year?

also to achieve herd immunity, over 70% of population has to be vaccinated so i guess there is a light at the end of the tunnel.

impressed with many countries taking vaccine initiatives now. This would be also a good prep for another wave and a new ground for test. By now we will have massive data for developers to work on.

by FennecFox7 Fri Jan 15, 2021 7:42 am

I donated Blood and plan on donating plasma. I have had COVID (asymptomatic) antibodies and am a universal donor (AB+).

by BarrileteCosmico Mon Jan 18, 2021 9:38 am

How is vaccinating 15 million people in the UK by mid-February going?

I think rather well.

Congrats to all the NHS staff, volunteers and other brilliant people busy vaccinating. pic.twitter.com/zQh4S25zHK
— Daniel Tomlinson (@dan_tomlinson_) January 17, 2021

I'm going to have to really re-assess my biases if after it's all said and done the UK handled this whole thing best

by BarrileteCosmico Tue Jan 19, 2021 10:30 pm

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/israeli-hospital-98-of-staff-who-got-2nd-shot-have-high-level-covid-antibodies/

Encouraging data from Israel, who seem to be the ones heading to full vaccination the fastest

by VivaStPauli Wed Jan 20, 2021 8:51 am

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:I'm going to have to really re-assess my biases if after it's all said and done the UK handled this whole thing best

Bit early for that mate, but obviously mass-vaccinations are something the NHS should be good at, it being a centralized health care system. Given enough vaccination doses, I'd expect France and the UK to hand them out the fastest in Europe due to their centralized systems, but it remains to be seen how it'll eventually play out.

by zigra Thu Jan 21, 2021 7:38 pm

@Babun wrote:
@RealGunner wrote:As much as i'd like to blame the government, it's human nature which is probably the biggest factor in this uncontrollable surge.

I think it's not possible to contain the virus during a cold winter when everyone resides indoors no matter how desciplined people are while they're still active and working. The only measures which would help would be the draconian ones China did with the Wuhan population last year. You can't do that in Europe, forget about it. All types of lockdowns are half assed, the reduce the incidence at most but don't solve the problem.

It's possible in South Korea though. Probably in other countries as well? Idk tbf.
The winter is comparable to the one in Germany btw and the lockdown isn't as "tough" as it is in Germany.

by BarrileteCosmico Thu Jan 21, 2021 8:05 pm

South Korea as a big advantage, which is that it is essentially an island. Countries within the continental EU or states within the US can take South Korea-like approaches, but if their neighbors don't it'll do little good in the end.

by zigra Fri Jan 22, 2021 7:17 am

While that's obviously not wrong I think it's more of an argument why no single European country can really eradicate the virus (similar to what NZ did) completely, however that's not what South Korea did. We've already seen that European countries can bring numbers down if they go into lockdown, it's just that they can't seem to keep it up. Numbers go down for a few weeks and then they skyrocket once more. To be fair I don't know what each country did but I suspect it's because rules are loosened or people follow them less after a while.

IMO the main problem in Europe (and the main difference to SK) is that the countries acted far too late. Once there are 10 or 20k or even more daily cases it takes forever to bring them down to a level you can properly manage. South Korea acted almost as soon as cases started rising and didn't wait for the numbers to reach a level that was already too high.

To be fair though it's probably true that you can't really lock down in Europe before numbers are out of control. Merkel actually tried but faced too much opposition until the numbers were finally far too high to manage.

by VivaStPauli Fri Jan 22, 2021 9:31 am

@zigra wrote:IMO the main problem in Europe (and the main difference to SK) is that the countries acted far too late. Once there are 10 or 20k or even more daily cases it takes forever to bring them down to a level you can properly manage. South Korea acted almost as soon as cases started rising and didn't wait for the numbers to reach a level that was already too high.

To be fair though it's probably true that you can't really lock down in Europe before numbers are out of control. Merkel actually tried but faced too much opposition until the numbers were finally far too high to manage.

That is accurate.

by Babun Sat Jan 23, 2021 10:04 am

@zigra wrote:
@Babun wrote:
@RealGunner wrote:As much as i'd like to blame the government, it's human nature which is probably the biggest factor in this uncontrollable surge.

I think it's not possible to contain the virus during a cold winter when everyone resides indoors no matter how desciplined people are while they're still active and working. The only measures which would help would be the draconian ones China did with the Wuhan population last year. You can't do that in Europe, forget about it. All types of lockdowns are half assed, the reduce the incidence at most but don't solve the problem.
It's possible in South Korea though. Probably in other countries as well? Idk tbf.
The winter is comparable to the one in Germany btw and the lockdown isn't as "tough" as it is in Germany.

German, better said EU data protection laws prevent intrusive contact tracing with disregard to privacy the way South Korea does it with the IT tech behind. I'm sure you're familiar with:
DSGVO
https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Datenschutz-Grundverordnung
Also, someone said before, S.Korea is almost an Island, Germany is in the heart of Europe, same with France and Italy. They HAVE to work together.

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