Re: The Coronavirus Thread - Part 3

by JespSwe Fri Nov 13, 2020 4:52 am

@VivaStPauli wrote:
@Arquitecto wrote:Does anyone have any concerns of taking a Vaccine that is to arrive this early?

Personally Im down to take it even if considered foolish.

Depends. I'd be a lot more open to take a mRNA one like the Pfizer candidate than one derived from dead virus cells the old school way.

yea i would be down for the one like Pfizer as well. though something like this would be awesome https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Coronavirus/Japanese-scientists-turn-to-silkworms-for-COVID-19-vaccine

also which i didnt know that regardless if imported vaccine * in which it is currently in phase 3 nearing approval status, here we have policies to do trial from start on our own population before deemed safe.

i think over time there would be even better run successful trials and vaccine available.

by Babun Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:20 am

@rincon wrote:
@BarrileteCosmico wrote:
@rincon wrote:Why would lockdowns not help at this point? What about this point in particular makes it different that would make them ineffective?
that people are sick of lockdowns and would ignore them. That even if they followed them, it would lead people to meet indoors at houses, where transmission rates are higher than meeting at an outside bar or something.

Measures should be aimed at points of high transmission (indoor dining, churches, hotels, gyms, etc) but going back to full lockdowns would be a mistake and generate more harm than not.

What is the evidence that people would ignore them? That sounds location specific.

Here Covid exploded a few weeks ago after months of little measures. So ~2 weeks ago the lockdown came back into force and we are already seeing the benefits. Just as it happened with the first lockdown.

Belgian hospitals record lowest number of new Covid-19 patients since 19 October

This will prevent a humanitarian crisis as hospitals were full and the death toll was rising exponentially. As sick of the lockdown as people may be, they follow it to a good degree and it works.

I don't see how the thread is made that people will meet indoors more if they are told to not meet at home. You will have people who simply won't care about the measures and will continue to meet at home like always, and you will have people that do care about the measures that won't meet at home. The number of indoor gatherings should always be lower in the end.

"Measures should be aimed at points of high transmission (indoor dining, churches, hotels, gyms, etc)"

This is precisely what a lockdown targets. Basically any public gathering place is closed, you can still go to any restaurant and get take out, to shops, or services, or to simply go outside and hang out with your close contacts. What you cannot is gather as a group, either outside or inside.

I fully share rincon's sentiments +:
One can get creative and let people meet up outside under certain conditions but the 10% lot myesyats mentioned will ignore the rules anyways and endanger the rest of the community. The rest of the community doesn't have the authority to command them around, the executive has to take care = lockdown is prefered. The feckers can go infect themselves, the normal people will avoid contact and will be relativly safe.

@VivaStPauli wrote:
@Arquitecto wrote:Does anyone have any concerns of taking a Vaccine that is to arrive this early?

Personally Im down to take it even if considered foolish.

Depends. I'd be a lot more open to take a mRNA one like the Pfizer candidate than one derived from dead virus cells the old school way.

I couldn't care less. Can't be worse than taking Wuhan virus full throttle.

by BarrileteCosmico Fri Nov 13, 2020 7:23 am

@rincon wrote:
@BarrileteCosmico wrote:
@rincon wrote:Why would lockdowns not help at this point? What about this point in particular makes it different that would make them ineffective?
that people are sick of lockdowns and would ignore them. That even if they followed them, it would lead people to meet indoors at houses, where transmission rates are higher than meeting at an outside bar or something.

Measures should be aimed at points of high transmission (indoor dining, churches, hotels, gyms, etc) but going back to full lockdowns would be a mistake and generate more harm than not.

What is the evidence that people would ignore them? That sounds location specific.

Here Covid exploded a few weeks ago after months of little measures. So ~2 weeks ago the lockdown came back into force and we are already seeing the benefits. Just as it happened with the first lockdown.

Belgian hospitals record lowest number of new Covid-19 patients since 19 October

This will prevent a humanitarian crisis as hospitals were full and the death toll was rising exponentially. As sick of the lockdown as people may be, they follow it to a good degree and it works.

I don't see how the thread is made that people will meet indoors more if they are told to not meet at home. You will have people who simply won't care about the measures and will continue to meet at home like always, and you will have people that do care about the measures that won't meet at home. The number of indoor gatherings should always be lower in the end.

"Measures should be aimed at points of high transmission (indoor dining, churches, hotels, gyms, etc)"

This is precisely what a lockdown targets. Basically any public gathering place is closed, you can still go to any restaurant and get take out, to shops, or services, or to simply go outside and hang out with your close contacts. What you cannot is gather as a group, either outside or inside.

It sounds to me like we need to agree on what a lockdown is, because I wouldn't describe what you describe as a lockdown.

A lockdown is a stay at home order where everyone is mandated to work from home, leave their home only for essential goods, and the only businesses that are open are those that provide 'essential' services (ie pharmacies, grocery stores, the hospital ER (but not regular care), etc).

This has been tried at a wide variety of places, and the places that have instituted it for the longest have had the least success with it.

An approach like the one I suggest, wouldn't be a lockdown, but 'targeted restrictions'. This would be a smarter way to deal with transmission levels while avoiding some of the worst impacts of a lockdown (near complete isolation, inability to work, etc).

In terms of human behavior, I see it all the time both here in the US and back in Argentina (longest lockdown in the world). People are willing to take a lockdown for a few weeks, but it's a miserable way to live and if it goes on for much longer they will start to ignore it. With winter not even here I'm sure we have 4+ months of wave 2 to get through.

by rincon Fri Nov 13, 2020 8:20 am

But who is establishing a lockdown like the one you suggest? And who is arguing for it here on GL? Argentina seems like an outlier in their startegy, I don't think anyone here wants that.

Most importantly, who is arguing for years of lockdown like FennecFox wrote, or even months on end? We didn't have a lockdown between June and November. Its a measure to be taken to prevent a crisis, and twice now it has worked here.

Out of the most critical moment when we had no information back in April/March, we haven't had a full lockdown like that here in europe.

Everyone that can work from home has to work from home, people like me who cannot work from home are allowed to go (I could even go to work in April). Restaurants are closed for dine in, but not for takeout. Supermarkets and convenience stores are open. Most shops are closed but can do in-store pick up (how I hope to get the PS5). You can't have more than one guest in your house if you want to be without masks and distancing (you are allowed 1 close contact), otherwise you have to wear masks and distance. You can go out for walks, park, whatever you want, as long as you wear a mask and distance. Bars and gyms are obviously closed.

by CBarca Fri Nov 13, 2020 6:56 pm

I'd take a vaccine in a heartbeat, assuming it's scientifically proven and safe.

I'm making the decision not to come home for Thanksgiving. A vaccine that could give me back guilt free time with my family? Sign me up

by BarrileteCosmico Sat Nov 14, 2020 9:09 am

@rincon wrote:But who is establishing a lockdown like the one you suggest? And who is arguing for it here on GL? Argentina seems like an outlier in their startegy, I don't think anyone here wants that.

Most importantly, who is arguing for years of lockdown like FennecFox wrote, or even months on end? We didn't have a lockdown between June and November. Its a measure to be taken to prevent a crisis, and twice now it has worked here.

Out of the most critical moment when we had no information back in April/March, we haven't had a full lockdown like that here in europe.

Everyone that can work from home has to work from home, people like me who cannot work from home are allowed to go (I could even go to work in April). Restaurants are closed for dine in, but not for takeout. Supermarkets and convenience stores are open. Most shops are closed but can do in-store pick up (how I hope to get the PS5). You can't have more than one guest in your house if you want to be without masks and distancing (you are allowed 1 close contact), otherwise you have to wear masks and distance. You can go out for walks, park, whatever you want, as long as you wear a mask and distance. Bars and gyms are obviously closed.

Europe was fortunate not to have a lockdown over the summer, so the willingness to close again now is understandable. In the US we've had most restrictions for a while now, so going into 'lockdown' mode involves far more stringent restrictions than the ones I listed, and there's honestly no appetite for it even with cases rapidly raising. There might be more if the Federal govt was willing to financially support people again, but without it most people don't want it.

by Lucifer Sat Nov 14, 2020 1:03 pm

So do I produce immunity for Covid 19 after I recover or there is a chance of reinfection? hmm

by BarrileteCosmico Sat Nov 14, 2020 1:09 pm

Consensus seems to be that you get active antibodies for around 2 months or so, after which you lose them and can get infected again. BUT your body doesn't exactly forget how to produce those antibodies, so it's able to roll them out faster address the issue faster.

Still should probably avoid re-infection so as to not pass it on to others.

by iftikhar Sun Nov 15, 2020 11:56 am

Just when we were thinking that we might have got away unscathed, four of my family member get infected. :facepalm:

by BarrileteCosmico Sun Nov 15, 2020 3:18 pm

Hope everyone has a speedy recovery ifti^

Germany now targeting the youth:

by Hapless_Hans Sun Nov 15, 2020 3:41 pm

@iftikhar wrote:Just when we were thinking that we might have got away unscathed, four of my family member get infected.

I'm sorry to hear that ifti. Wishing all the very best to your family, I hope everyone recovers swiftly.

by Warrior Sun Nov 15, 2020 5:32 pm

I wish each member of your family recovers well... and no more will catch the virus

by Babun Mon Nov 16, 2020 4:47 am

@iftikhar wrote:Just when we were thinking that we might have got away unscathed, four of my family member get infected.

I wish your family speedy recovery.
My uncle's family got it through their son who went to school and he got it through a Bosnian girl who upon return from their family trip didn't put herself under 2 week long quarantine. Long story shot, I'd advise to avoid any kind if family gatherings until the end of the year.

A study of the lungs of people who have died from COVID-19 has found persistent and extensive lung damage in most cases.

This finding may help doctors understand what is responsible for a syndrome known as ‘long COVID.’ People with this condition can suffer ongoing health problems for months...

https://learningenglish.voanews.com/a/researchers-lung-damage-in-covid-dead-may-explain-long-covid-/5649677.html

by JespSwe Mon Nov 16, 2020 9:06 am

sorry to hear iftikhar and babun. hope everyone from your ends recover soon and back to normal self.

think this winter we all have to brace ourselves and hopefully by spring next year, vaccine distribution will start getting available in public.

by iftikhar Tue Nov 17, 2020 5:13 am

@JespSwe @Babun @Warrior @Hapless_Hans @BarrileteCosmico Thanks for wishes, really appreciate that. Most of them are stable but couple of them are pretty old and have some other ailments, so we are keeping our fingers crossed.

@Babun Hope your uncle's family recovers soon. They will be in my prayers.

by rincon Tue Nov 17, 2020 5:29 am

Hope it goes well @iftikhar and @Babun

by Babun Tue Nov 17, 2020 9:51 am

@all thanks
My uncle needs oxygen by now but his condition is stable, his wife and son are doing very well, the daughter tested negative twice which is quite interesting. She isn't sick at all although they live in the same house.

On Topic:
Merkel wanted to pass through a hard lockdown but the local minister presidents of the federal states opposed her. They postponed the decision until the next week. They'll see whether the situation will get better without any further intervention. The prevalence per 100k in Germany is 140 infected/day, in Austria 500/ day already. She said the number has to be around 50 or lower to be in control again, for as of now 75% of new infections are untrackable.

by VivaStPauli Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:37 am

Our infrastructure is already collapsing, tracking and tracing is basically not doable anymore in Germany;
two weeks ago on friday, a work colleague of mine tested positive for Covid, he immediately sent a text to everyone who he'd seen over the past week, including me, I isolated until one week had passed from my contact with him, then got a test (which was negative), and I resumed my life. Then after 13 days they finally "officially" tracked me down and told me to quarantine, and get tested.

If my colleague hadn't done the right thing, and I hadn't listened, and had I been positive, this could've all been a disaster. And those are all good people working on this, but they're already overwhelmed, and we're a 1st world country with a not-that-ridiculously high number of cases.

In the end he had infected one other colleague, who's also isolating. None of us are covidiots, most of us are academics, and we were all careful anyway. But this is dangerous.

Stay at home. Wear a mask.

by rincon Tue Nov 17, 2020 10:51 am

Thats pretty bad for the contact tracing.

Here when you get a test, you get a phone call if you are positive and are asked for the information of everyone you were in contact with recently.

Happened to a close friend, he texted me as we had been in contact, and then within 1 hour I got the message from the state with instructions on what to do. Had to quarantine for 10 days since the moment of contact.

by VivaStPauli Tue Nov 17, 2020 11:08 am

That's the idea, but they were 12 days late for my colleague. Luckily he'd already taken care of it himself.

by Jay29 Wed Nov 18, 2020 12:49 pm

Pfizer and Moderna have announced great results for their vaccines.

Vaccinations could be underway before the end of the year. By Spring, infections could be low enough for life to be sort of "normal" once more.

We're near the end now. Just a few more months of restrictions.

by JespSwe Wed Nov 18, 2020 7:23 pm

Indeed great news, read news that Pfizer is finalizing their work then apply for Emergency authorization use in which FDA will review and approve if all goes well. Well here is hoping. Meanwhile there was some updates also that once that is done, there will be some pilot test on few states.

Hope and pray this goes well, i feel very sorry for all those frontline healthcare workers who again are overwhelmed and fatigued by some huge increase in numbers again same for all the public workers too Sad

I guess over time in 5-6 months the cases may subside if all goes well, and hope by then the other candidates would have also made some good progress so everyone can look forward to some peaceful times

by VivaStPauli Thu Nov 19, 2020 3:32 am

Also, the Russian Sputnik vaccine might not be half bad, there's studies out of India and the UAE that seem to verify Russian claims. It's the last of the three I'd trust, but it might actually end up also being okay.

by Arquitecto Thu Nov 19, 2020 3:54 am

If anyone knows Pfizer's history it would be hard to trust them so I hope the more informed here keep an eye out. I also do get why some are skeptical of the vaccination and refuse to take it but what real harm can it do as it is.

by VivaStPauli Thu Nov 19, 2020 7:29 am

Pfizer are just financing and publishing though, it is developed by BioNTech, which is a startup, and operating by different standards than Pfizer... That being said, until like 40 years ago, a German pharma company would've also cared the shit out of me.

by JespSwe Thu Nov 19, 2020 7:51 am

^ that. i was about to say the same thing. It is a joint collaboration with Pfizer. Plus there is a clinical trial to study in which first of phases requires safety before they could even proceed further to test safety + efficacy on wider population with different age groups, amongst other things.

and i guess FDA or big countries have FDA equivalent agency to evaluate the data, peer reviews from independent bodies which helps. Also its a good thing that pfizer is also holding out trials on different countries, atleast here in JPN, Pfizer has started conducting first phase of trial since October, so i guess the result will take another 6 months to yield here before another review.

That being said i also understand about the skepticism but i rather believe more in science, data when it comes to safety.

also while pfizer and moderna are ahead, world has about over 160 + candidates, so i think in time, there will possibly a better ones who knows but hopefully over time it becomes readily available for everyone

whatever gets approved if any probably will only be for emergency cases. i dont think it is the end of it, and the study is an ongoing matter for pfizer and moderna.

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