The Coronavirus Thread - Part 3

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Post by RealGunner Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:06 pm

What's really interesting to me is how many currently infected were also infected in the 1st wave. Do we really have a whole new set of people with corona? I mean if infected are 90k at worst then surely many are also those who were infected previously?

I was out earlier and the weather is horrendous but despite that it looked absolutely normal with traffic and people going about. I can't see this national lockdown to be as disciplined as the last one.

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Post by RealGunner Sat Oct 31, 2020 2:09 pm

@Jay29 wrote:

Currently, the plan is to close non-essential businesses but keep schools, colleges and universities open. The furlough scheme will be replaced with a far less generous system so people are going to be out-of-pocket even more than they were the first time. Due to that, I foresee a lot of resistance to this one. We already saw the mayor of Manchester resist stricter restrictions due to lack of financial support and the Greater Manchester area basically had to be forced into it.

This makes little sense because schools and universities are the ones where the virus is being spread. A lockdown has to be a complete lockdown otherwise it's futile. They should have done a natinonal lockdown over half term last week.



The local lockdowns haven't worked as well as they hoped. So much of the country is already in tier 3 (the highest) and many other counties are joining them. At this point, a blanket lockdown seems necessary because clearly something ain't working.


My city has been in tier 3 since the very start and you would think virus has never been here with absolutely no regards to safety procedures being followed etc. People have resorted to living with the virus rather than avoiding it at this point.
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Post by Jay29 Sat Oct 31, 2020 3:02 pm

We're voluntarily Tier 2 where I am but it makes no difference to people's behaviour. Also makes no sense for Essex to be in Tier 2 but Thurrock and Southend in Tier 1 because they're independent councils. In my town I'm not supposed to go into someone else's house but if I went twenty minutes down the road I could do just that. Laughing

The gov have learned nothing from March. Back then, it was all about slowing the virus down until the models told them we had to lockdown. Now it's all about slowing the virus down, until the models have told them it's worse than they thought and we need to lockdown again. There're more tests, but the track and trace is a joke and can't even handle the current number of cases.

Schools are a clusterfuck. Primary schools are doing okay because everything is tightly monitored. Kids have to be dropped off at specific times and if you're late you have to book an appointment to even get in the building. They stay in class bubbles and can't even mingle with other kids during break times. Secondary schools though is basically anything goes. I drive past one on the way to work and the kids all gather in groups by a bunch of shops. No masks or distancing at all. Then you have the massive surge of kids between periods where the corridors are rammed.

For me, it'd make some sense to keep primary schools open but shut down secondaries and move it all online. College/uni are mostly online now anyway so shouldn't have to close.


Last edited by Jay29 on Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:30 pm; edited 1 time in total

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Post by Art Morte Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:35 pm

Regional lockdowns and different tiers are a stupid idea, imo. People understand clear and simple instructions / orders. "You must do this, this and this if these, these and these conditions are fulfilled within your region" is just too complicated if you're trying to control the masses.

There was a study quite recently saying that people who've had the virus seem to lose most / all antibodies in a few months. But then there was some speculation that our immune system might be able to stave off a re-infection by other means than just antibodies and it just all seems very inconclusive. Surely by now the boffins should be able to tell how likely it is for one person to get it twice? The numbers some of these countries are posting now absolutely make me wonder about the possibility of achieving herd immunity - if re-infection is rare.
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Post by Jay29 Sat Oct 31, 2020 4:47 pm

Media is overly focused on basic antibodies as a sign of immunity but don't focus on the other aspects of the immune system that fight infections.

My own layman understanding is that once the body has been infected, it can produce the necessary antibodies to fight the infection. It doesn't forget how to do that. Therefore, the body is better prepared to fight an infection the second time around in most cases.

For Covid, this could mean people do get the infection a second, third, etc. time, but the body knows how to fight it and therefore reduces its severity, perhaps to the point of people being asymptomatic.

We know so far that confirmed re-infections are rare. This implies a very small number of people who had symptoms have developed enough symptoms the second time to warrant a test.


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Post by RealGunner Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:23 pm

@Jay29 wrote:We're voluntarily Tier 2 where I am but it makes no difference to people's behaviour. Also makes no sense for Essex to be in Tier 2 but Thurrock and Southend in Tier 1 because they're independent councils. In my town I'm not supposed to go into someone else's house but if I went twenty minutes down the road I could do just that. Laughing

The gov have learned nothing from March. Back then, it was all about slowing the virus down until the models told them we had to lockdown. Now it's all about slowing the virus down, until the models have told them it's worse than they thought and we need to lockdown again. There're more tests, but the track and trace is a joke and can't even handle the current number of cases.

Schools are a clusterfuck. Primary schools are doing okay because everything is tightly monitored. Kids have to be dropped off at specific times and if you're late you have to book an appointment to even get in the building. They stay in class bubbles and can't even mingle with other clothes during break times. Secondary schools though is basically anything goes. I drive past one on the way to work and the kids all gather in groups by a bunch of shops. No masks or distancing at all. Then you have the massive surge of kids between periods where the corridors are rammed.

For me, it'd make some sense to keep primary schools open but shut down secondaries and move it all online. College/uni are mostly online now anyway so shouldn't have to close.


Most of my colleagues have kids so i hear a lot about schools. An average bubble consists of 130 kids in secondary school which is ridiculous. So if one kid in that bubble gets corona, they all stay at home for 2 weeks lol. Which makes no sense. Also getting corona is trendy in schools as it gets instagram likes Laughing

@Jay29 wrote:Media is overly focused on basic antibodies as a sign of immunity but don't focus on the other aspects of the immune system that fight infections.

My own layman understanding is that once the body has been infected, it can produce the necessary antibodies to fight the infection. It doesn't forget how to do that. Therefore, the body is better prepared to fight an infection the second time around in most cases.

For Covid, this could mean people do get the infection a second, third, etc. time, but the body knows how to fight it and therefore reduces its severity, perhaps to the point of people being asymptomatic.

We know so far that confirmed re-infections are rare. This implies a very small number of people who had symptoms have developed enough symptoms the second time to warrant a test.



That's the correct understanding. Which also makes it dangerous because if a person gets corona for the 2nd time and is largely asymptomatic, he is very likely to spread it to someone else without knowing.
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Post by RealGunner Sat Oct 31, 2020 6:40 pm

Clown PM was going to announce it at 4pm. It's half 6 now

sums it all up
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Post by Nishankly Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:51 pm

52k cases in France, new record, surpasses India who are still in their first wave since 8 months Laughing
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Post by Babun Tue Nov 03, 2020 8:57 am

@Nishankly wrote:52k cases in France, new record, surpasses India who are still in their first wave since 8 months Laughing

France has got Wuhan virus among other problems Laughing
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Tue Nov 03, 2020 12:17 pm

In MA we are in 2nd wave mode as well. Back in August we hit a low of 100 cases, now we are at 1500 again. The governor has mandated mandatory face masks and lowered the limits for social gatherings, but it seems like a weak effort to me.

The big fear in the US is what happens during Thanksgiving and Christmas. These are inter-generational events where the grandparents could be exposed to the kids who have not taken the proper precautions, or have but are attending school/uni. With another month of exponential growth to look forward to it could be very bad.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Tue Nov 03, 2020 1:44 pm

So here's a bit of crazy news: Argentina has ordered 25m vaccines from Russia. When asked if he will take it the president said "of course... But it wouldn't be fair for me to take it first".

In order for the vaccine to work you must take two doses, so it only covers 12.5m people, in a country of over 40m...

The vaccine Russia has only passed phase 2 testing, and is rumored to have only been applied to 76 test subjects (including no women).

So far, only 4 in 10 Argentines are polled as saying they would take it. Even though there is no anti vaxxer movement in Argentina, the president has managed to convert the majority of the country into that.
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Post by Babun Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:40 am

@BC
I heard the president is going to relax the lockdown measures amid a high in new infections. Is it true?
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Post by Myesyats Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:51 am

I wouldnt trust the russian vaccine either... Seems very rushed, almost impossible in the span of a couple months.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Wed Nov 04, 2020 12:02 pm

@Babun wrote:@BC
I heard the president is going to relax the lockdown measures amid a high in new infections. Is it true?
Argentina has the longest quarantine in the world, and as a result no one is quarantining any more. People have to work to eat.
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Post by Babun Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:13 am

Very bad news:

Coronavirus cases have also been detected in farmed mink in the Netherlands and Spain since the pandemic began in Europe.

But cases are spreading fast in Denmark - 207 mink farms in Jutland are affected - and at least five cases of the new virus strain were found. Twelve people had become infected, the authorities said.
.....
Ms Frederiksen cited a government report which said the mutated virus had been found to weaken the body's ability to form antibodies, potentially making the current vaccines under development for Covid-19 ineffective.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54818615

12 infected people were identified in Denmark. Yesterday, an infected Swede tested positive as well. Furthermore, those farms also exist in Spain and Netherlands :brickwall:
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Post by VivaStPauli Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:23 pm

Great.
The killer virus has been fast-tracked to mutation in fucking mink farms. Because we still need real pelts in 2020. Can't believe I'm agreeing with the vegans for once.
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Post by Arquitecto Sat Nov 07, 2020 1:37 pm

Whats your thing against Vegans, Viva?
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Post by VivaStPauli Sat Nov 07, 2020 4:57 pm

Nothing, I just am not someone who would have anything against mink farms, usually.

I generally applaud eating less meat and generally living in a way that makes less animals die. I even try not to run over any bugs with my bike if I can help it.

But I'm also not really someone to speak out against farming animals or anything. So it seemed weird to me, myself.
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Post by Myesyats Mon Nov 09, 2020 3:21 pm

Covid-19 vaccine candidate is 90% effective, says Pfizer

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/nov/09/covid-19-vaccine-candidate-effective-pfizer-biontech

To save time, the companies began manufacturing the vaccine before they knew whether it would work. They now expect to produce up to 50m doses, or enough vaccine to protect 25 million people, this year, and up to to 1.3bn doses in 2021.

Many countries already have orders for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine. The UK has bought 30m doses – enough for 15 million people because two doses are required. The EU has secured 200m doses, which it will distribute. The companies have a $1.95bn contract with the US government to deliver 100m vaccine doses beginning this year.
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Post by Lucifer Tue Nov 10, 2020 8:53 am

Covid 19 positive Molenation
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Post by Hapless_Hans Tue Nov 10, 2020 10:55 am

@Lucifer wrote:Covid 19 positive Molenation


All the best to you, dear brother. How are you doing? Symptoms? Get well soon!

How's the situation in India now? (Mumbai, are you?)
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Post by Lucifer Tue Nov 10, 2020 11:17 am

@Hapless_Hans wrote:
@Lucifer wrote:Covid 19 positive Molenation


All the best to you, dear brother. How are you doing? Symptoms? Get well soon!

How's the situation in India now? (Mumbai, are you?)

Minor fever and tastelessness so far. Nothing major fortunately. Condition in india and mumbai is very bad but people have stopped giving fuck apparently.
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Post by FennecFox7 Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:00 pm

I got covid last week. Asymptomatic except slight body aches and sense of smell is decreased (barely noticed until today).

And those symptoms resolved in 24 hours. I’m fine now. Gonna do a follow up test so I can safely intermingle again

and I believe diet and obesity play a huge role. I have written a slide show on my Instagram for anyone interested. Let me know if you guys are
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Post by JespSwe Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:02 pm

@Lucifer wrote:
@Hapless_Hans wrote:
@Lucifer wrote:Covid 19 positive Molenation


All the best to you, dear brother. How are you doing? Symptoms? Get well soon!

How's the situation in India now? (Mumbai, are you?)

Minor fever and tastelessness so far. Nothing major fortunately. Condition  in india and mumbai is very bad but people have stopped giving fuck apparently.

get well soon drinking
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Post by JespSwe Tue Nov 10, 2020 3:04 pm

Pfizer is nearing approval status so Japan is running its own trial of Pfizer since October

https://in.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-pfizer-japan/pfizer-biontech-start-combined-trials-of-covid-19-vaccine-candidate-in-japan-idUSKBN2750KF

if all goes well it should be available by spring or summer 2021. Same with AstraZeneca (w/ Oxford Uni) vaccine phase I has started in japan in Oct.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Tue Nov 10, 2020 6:16 pm

@Lucifer wrote:Covid 19 positive Molenation
best of luck man, hope you have no/mild symptoms and you recover quickly
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