2020 US presidential election

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Post by CBarca Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:07 pm

If Biden wins without the senate, increasingly very likely, it will be a really complicated win for Dems.

Some might say hollow, and with the margins being as razor thin as they are, maybe that's arguable (wait until all the ballots are counted, anyway...) not just from the governing/senate perspective, but from the repudiation of Trump perspective.

A lot of liberals around me feel a bit sickened with the presumptive win.

However, we should take the wins where they come. Even if it wasn't how I wanted, I'll be really happy to live in a world where we don't have a clown as the world's most powerful person. Our institutions seem as though they may bend but will not break.

But perhaps I should wait for more results before hitting down the post-mortem.

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Post by rincon Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:10 pm

Even if he isn't able to accomplish as much in a hypothetical presidency. Just the fact of not having Trump there is worth celebrating, big relief if he loses, regardless of the senate.
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Post by Myesyats Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:14 pm

Yeah agreed tbh dems and other sane people should be grateful that Trump will be out and hopefully federally prosecuted at least, this is really a battle for the soul of the country regardless of anything else.

Country folk is really motivated to keep Trump in as well...

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Post by elitedam Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:15 pm

Maybe this moves the party more to the left? The pursuit of moderates hasn't really worked out at all.
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Post by Art Morte Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:23 pm

Makes little sense to move more to the left when they're already the most left-wing option. The Republicans have been moving more to the right, if anything, and they seem to do all right out of it.
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Post by VivaStPauli Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:43 pm

I've been following the election on several news networks for 23 hours now, and I've been drinking, and my democratic spirit is exhausted, this has been a shit show, but at least the result seems to turn out ok.
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Post by CBarca Wed Nov 04, 2020 9:54 pm

@elitedam wrote:Maybe this moves the party more to the left? The pursuit of moderates hasn't really worked out at all.


We'll see more in terms of where indies ended up, but this isn't really that true right now, IMO

Biden is going to be elected so #1: they won. #2 Biden/Harris is winning with the highest vote totals ever seen, #3 Biden beat Bernie in the primaries, and actually the place where it looks like he may have done the worst (Miami-Dade), the most plausible explanation right now is that Cuban Americans really fell for the "Biden-as-socialist" schtick.

It seems like independents generally went with Biden [citation needed], but that Trump 1) more independents than what we thought and 2) republicans really stuck by his side, and REALLY turned out higher than we thought they would.

It will be interesting to see where Biden ends up with respect to the popular vote.

The senate results are bad, but I'm not sure it's easy to say that going farther to the left would have done them any better.

I understand why people want Dems to push left. I want it too. But you also have to do the thing that makes electoral sense. I think Bernie would have been obliterated by Trump
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Post by VivaStPauli Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:02 pm

I saw street interviews on MSNBC and CNN both with a lot of voters who said they were either a) first-time voters or b) didn't vote in the last election, yet they were all voting for Trump.
The narrative of higher turnout favoring the Democrats didn't turn out to be true at all, there were apparently vast reserves to be tapped for the Republicans as well.

Trump losing the popular vote hard, though, like all Republicans. Electoral college needs to go the way of the dodo.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:28 pm

I just don't understand where the "if only Biden were more left-leaning he would've won by more" logic comes from.

He's winning with the highest turnout in 100 years. He has the highest turnout because he was able to convince a broad coalition ranging from never-trumper republicans to progressives that he is their best shot.

Do you really think that if Biden were to adapt a more fringe position he would become more electable? how does that make any sense at all?

Anyways time for @freeza and @fennecfox7 to eat crow over last night's posts, been holding it in until it looked assured.

(inb4 GL RJ and Trump actually takes arizona)
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Post by sportsczy Wed Nov 04, 2020 10:35 pm

Seriously BC... i kept wanting Biden to be the candidate PRECISELY BECAUSE he's a moderate and can appeal to more people.  That's why he won (I hope).

Did you guys listen to his speech this afternoon?  That was like a breath of fresh air.

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Post by Myesyats Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:03 pm

MI called for Biden

I want to know on what basis does Trump want to sue since there's absolutely no evidence of fraud.

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Post by elitedam Wed Nov 04, 2020 11:13 pm

CB is right. We won't know more until the data comes in.

But the logic is that Trump almost matched Biden's coalition by running a campaign that 100% focused on his base.

As for the never Trumpers, it doesn't seem like there's many of them. I read somewhere that 93% of republicans voted for Trump in 2020 as opposed to 90% in 2016. I don't know how accurate those numbers are.
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Post by CBarca Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:02 am

@VivaStPauli wrote:I saw street interviews on MSNBC and CNN both with a lot of voters who said they were either a) first-time voters or b) didn't vote in the last election, yet they were all voting for Trump.
The narrative of higher turnout favoring the Democrats didn't turn out to be true at all, there were apparently vast reserves to be tapped for the Republicans as well.

Trump losing the popular vote hard, though, like all Republicans. Electoral college needs to go the way of the dodo.


These exit polls are misleading though. Biden voters voted by mail and didn't show up as much on election day, so the sample size is skewed towards voters who are voting Trump.

Not that your point about higher turnout not really being a big thing for Dems isn't true (you're right, there was a Republican reserve vote we weren't accounting for), but those interviews aren't a good representation.
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Post by CBarca Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:03 am

@elitedam wrote:CB is right. We won't know more until the data comes in.

But the logic is that Trump almost matched Biden's coalition by running a campaign that 100% focused on his base.

As for the never Trumpers, it doesn't seem like there's many of them. I read somewhere that 93% of republicans voted for Trump in 2020 as opposed to 90% in 2016. I don't know how accurate those numbers are.


I think the big takeaway is that partisanship, which has becoming increasingly strong, is only becoming stronger.

I wonder how many independents are truly independent.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:40 am

Trump's lead in GA narrows to 47k with about 240k votes left to count, so as long as the remaining ballots follow a 60-40 split this could essentially end tonight.
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Post by CBarca Thu Nov 05, 2020 1:39 am

We might end up with a weird PA/GA win but AZ flip.

I don't think AZ will flip though
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Post by sportsczy Thu Nov 05, 2020 1:52 am

AZ won't flip. If you look at where the remaining counts are going to come from... Phoeniz and Tucson, both of which are dem. Especially Phoenix. Demographics of Phoenix have changed drastically over the past 4 years with people moving there from California.
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Post by McLewis Thu Nov 05, 2020 3:32 am

Given the Dems won't take the Senate, my focus has now turned to the House. As it stands, the Dems have 232 seats to the GOP's 197. That's the 116th House that are incumbents right now.

As of this election now, Dems are looking at 208 seats with the GOP having 199.

Of the 16 toss up races, the GOP have already won 6 of them and are leading in another 6. 2 are in dead heats and 1 has a Dem leading.

Surprisingly, the GOP have made some gains in blue-leaning districts. They've flipped 3 seats in Dem-leaning/likely districts and are leading in 2 heavily favored Dem districts (NY-3 and PA-7).

218 seats are needed to control the House. The Dems are closer to this mark, but the GOP are making gains so it doesn't look like that blue wave from 2018 is holding up well. The Dems may just hold onto the House, but it's going to be a very close run thing.
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Post by Myesyats Thu Nov 05, 2020 9:46 am

PA has really closed down with many votes still to be counted, how likely is it for it to flip?

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Post by VivaStPauli Thu Nov 05, 2020 10:02 am

@CBarca wrote:
@VivaStPauli wrote:I saw street interviews on MSNBC and CNN both with a lot of voters who said they were either a) first-time voters or b) didn't vote in the last election, yet they were all voting for Trump.
The narrative of higher turnout favoring the Democrats didn't turn out to be true at all, there were apparently vast reserves to be tapped for the Republicans as well.

Trump losing the popular vote hard, though, like all Republicans. Electoral college needs to go the way of the dodo.


These exit polls are misleading though. Biden voters voted by mail and didn't show up as much on election day, so the sample size is skewed towards voters who are voting Trump.

Not that your point about higher turnout not really being a big thing for Dems isn't true (you're right, there was a Republican reserve vote we weren't accounting for), but those interviews aren't a good representation.


Oh yeah I know, as you said, my point was about first-time voters, not the representation.
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Post by VivaStPauli Thu Nov 05, 2020 10:03 am

@Myesyats wrote:PA has really closed down with many votes still to be counted, how likely is it for it to flip?


Very, very likely. Philadelphia and Pittsburg still need to have the majority of their votes counted, and Philly went to Hillary with like 83% of the votes in 2016.
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Post by Art Morte Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:29 am

Trump supporters chanting "count the vote!" in places where he's trailing and "stop the count!" where he's ahead, couldn't make this shit up lmao
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Post by Freeza Thu Nov 05, 2020 11:59 am

@Art Morte wrote:Trump supporters chanting "count the vote!" in places where he's trailing and "stop the count!" where he's ahead, couldn't make this shit up lmao


You mean the opposite right?
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:02 pm

So as of this morning, Biden's lead in AZ is down to 10k with 14% left to count. Trump's lead in GA is down to 18k with 4% left to count.

Everything might depend on PA after all.
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Post by Freeza Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:07 pm

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:So as of this morning, Biden's lead in AZ is down to 10k with 14% left to count. Trump's lead in GA is down to 18k with 4% left to count.

Everything might depend on PA after all.


Where are you getting those numbers from? The Arizona ones?

I see 70k lead with 12% to go
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Thu Nov 05, 2020 12:12 pm

Could've sworn I just read it in CNN but I can't find the article again... let's hope I was wrong then Smile

Edit: I probably got it mixed up with Nevada


Last edited by BarrileteCosmico on Thu Nov 05, 2020 1:18 pm; edited 1 time in total
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