2020 US presidential election

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Post by Pedram Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:11 pm

Good to see rust belt going back to Democrats, they realized Trump isn't going to magically bring back their jobs.

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Post by Vibe Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:14 pm

This looks like an almost certain win for Biden, doesn't it?

Why is everyone calling it close.

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Post by CBarca Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:15 pm

@Pedram wrote:Good to see rust belt going back to Democrats after getting a taste of Trump.


WI flipped, but I'm pissed.

We're literally the worst state in the entire country for COVID and we went for Biden by a narrow 20k votes. What the fuck?

WI might be a nightmare for Dems going into the future. We're losing the progressive streak we had and Republicans have gone in hard on WI through gerrymandering, a smidge of voter suppression, and Republican governments that have been massive in turning out the non-college educated white vote. We're also revealing what everyone who lives here already knows. This state is racist as shit.

I might live in the liberal bubble of WI, which is nice, but I have half a mind to leave. This state kinda disgusts me.
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Post by CBarca Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:18 pm

@Vibe wrote:This looks like an almost certain win for Biden, doesn't it?

Why is everyone calling it close.



Basically, the media isn't going to call things definitively until we are SURE of the results.

Between WI, Nevada, and Georgia, we might have to wait for a while for Biden to officially "win" even in terms of the media calling states (a reminder, of course, that nobody "officially" wins the Electoral college until December).

However, conventional wisdom tells us that Biden won WI, he looks like he'll win MI, which wins him the White House. If he wins PA and GA on top of that, and both of those are very possible, that's a cherry on top.

The media just won't say it because of the 2000 election and being conservative in "calling" states until we're almost 100% sure
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Post by CBarca Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:22 pm

EDIT: I might have to backtrack, as it seems people are more optimistic on states being called from media conglomerates than I am.

"Biden campaign believes:

- They believe they’ve won Wisc, expect it to be called this morning
- Mich vote by mail lead is insurmountable and will be called midday
- Philly vote by mail will come in tonight or tomorrow
- GA result midday or early afternoon
- NV called tomorrow"
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Post by FennecFox7 Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:26 pm

Rust belt states did not vote for Biden.
I hope progressives push and scream and take over the party or push it to the left. Look at the multiple states decriminalizing drugs and weed. That’s an excellent start.
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Post by CBarca Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:31 pm

They literally did and are. Biden won WI, MN, and is going to win MI and probably PA.

He did lose Ohio but that was expected. It was a lean R from the start
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:37 pm

@Vibe wrote:This looks like an almost certain win for Biden, doesn't it?

Why is everyone calling it close.

It's looking good for Biden, but not certain. By the time all mail in ballots are counted a week from now it might look like it was all inevitable.

The reason to pick Biden as the nominee was that the white blue-collar voters who switched to Trump would feel more comfortable with an old man than with an old woman, and so far... that looks accurate.
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Post by Myesyats Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:43 pm

Thank you Wisconsin and Michigan. I couldnt have done it without you :bow:
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Post by rincon Wed Nov 04, 2020 2:58 pm

@Vibe wrote:This looks like an almost certain win for Biden, doesn't it?

Why is everyone calling it close.


The margins are too small. Biden looks good right now, I think he will win, but it is VERY close.

Biden needs to win WI, MI, and NV basically.
Biden is up by:
WI: 0.6%
MI: 0.3%
NV: 0.7%

Its too tight to call, particularly in Nevada that has too many votes still yet to be counted.

On the other states like GA, NC, PA Biden is down. It may flip with the last bit of votes to come, but I wouldn't bet on it.

That would put Biden exactly at 270 iirc. Can't really be tighter than this.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:07 pm

Nevada only has mail in ballots left, which lean dem in every state, so it's almost certainly a Biden pick up.

This really could come down to Maine's split vote, which could be decided by ranked choice voting


Last edited by BarrileteCosmico on Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:12 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by Vibe Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:08 pm

Nah, Trump is done unless he pulls off something crazy.

Shame. Fine president IMO. If Americans think Biden is any better as a human being they are in for a surprise. If Trump wasn't such a stupid child things would have worked out second term. Would have been reelected too if it wasn't for Covid.

Shame he handled it so badly, as far as USA as a country goes, he was doing just fine. Better than Bush or Obama.
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Post by FennecFox7 Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:30 pm

Agreed. Trump is trumps worst enemy. There’s no reason for his racist rhetoric and low blows he puts out.. but he’s a pitiful human being. First president to stand up to China though. CCP is a huge problem and so is all free trade.
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Post by Pedram Wed Nov 04, 2020 3:39 pm

Current trajectory if everything stays as it is:

2020 US presidential election - Page 37 DTU4ciy

Faithless electors could be a big concern for Democrats in this scenario.
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Post by Art Morte Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:03 pm

Was George Floyd's murder and the on-going trend of protests & riots that followed a blessing for Trump? His law and order message probably pulled some voters who might have voted democrat in more peaceful times.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:08 pm

anyone have a solid idea of what's going on with the senate? having biden as president will do everyone little good if mcconnell still blocks every bit of legislation
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Post by CBarca Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:13 pm

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:anyone have a solid idea of what's going on with the senate? having biden as president will do everyone little good if mcconnell still blocks every bit of legislation


I don't really have the time for a longer answer right now, but the answer is clear: not good. Very very unlikely to win.

And I, to some extent, reject the notion that it's no good without the senate. McConnell will block everything, but there is a LOT that the executive branch is responsible for on its own.

But yeah, a Biden win is great, but without the senate, it's going to be a rough going.
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Post by McLewis Wed Nov 04, 2020 4:15 pm

The Senate is actually where I have been focusing for most of this time.

Short answer: Dems are projected to pick up some seats, but aren't quite at the 4 needed to flip the Senate. They did also lose Alabama, as was expected though. Many of the key races are too close to call in the battleground states at the moment.

The one here in Michigan is very tight in particular and 89% of the votes are in.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Wed Nov 04, 2020 5:47 pm

Via 538:

Before the election, Republicans held 53 Senate seats, Democrats 47 (including the two independent senators who caucused with Democrats). But polls suggested that Democrats could net four seats and win the chamber.

That’s probably not happening. As expected, ex-football coach and Republican Tommy Tuberville easily defeated Democratic incumbent Doug Jones in Alabama. Democrats appear to have flipped two seats that they were expected to win, with former Colorado Gov. John Hicklooper beating Sen. Cory Gardner and retired astronaut Mark Kelly likely defeating Sen. Martha McSally. (ABC News has not yet called the race but the Associated Press did.) But Republicans Joni Ernst of Iowa and Steve Daines of Montana held off strong Democratic challengers. Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina also seems likely to win reelection, although that race has also not been called by most news outlets yet.

And Republicans could get an upset. Republican John James is narrowly ahead of incumbent Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, 49.3 percent to 48.7 percent, although 10 percent of the vote there remains untabulated so either candidate could win.

So the Senate looks like it’s 48-47 in favor of Democrats right now. But even if Peters overtakes James, Republicans have a very good chance of winning all three remaining seats and getting to 51 seats overall. Republican Susan Collins of Maine is ahead of her challenger, Democrat Sara Gideon, 50 percent to 44 percent. But about 26 percent of Maine votes are untabulated. Also, Maine uses a ranked-choice voting system. Gideon is likely to be the second choice of most of the supporters of the more progressive independent candidate Lisa Savage. Savage is getting about 4 percent support, so this race favors Collins but could still swing to Gideon.

In Georgia, Sen. David Purdue is narrowly ahead of Democrat Jon Ossoff, 51 percent to 47 percent, but there are a lot of outstanding ballots in that state. If Purdue does not get 50 percent of the vote, the race will go to a Jan. 5 runoff. The Senate special election in Georgia is already headed to a runoff because none of the numerous candidates received 50 percent. Incumbent GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler and Democrat Raphael Warnock will face off in that race. Both Purdue and Loeffler would be favored in runoffs, since Georgia is a GOP-leaning state.

Sounds like we should not hold our breath for these races, I have a hard time seeing Collins lose if she only narrowly misses on the 50%
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Post by Blue Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:01 pm

https://youtu.be/l7l9QmtiXHU
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Post by M99 Wed Nov 04, 2020 6:46 pm

I think Biden is winning. Leads in WI and MI. Trump's leads in PA and GE narrowing too. Its clear that overwhelming majority of mail in votes are for Biden which is why Trump wants the vote count to stop. Its gonna be hell of a week, Trump is not accepting a loss at all.
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Post by Freeza Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:10 pm

CNN has called Wisconsin for Biden
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Post by McLewis Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:41 pm

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:Via 538:

Before the election, Republicans held 53 Senate seats, Democrats 47 (including the two independent senators who caucused with Democrats). But polls suggested that Democrats could net four seats and win the chamber.

That’s probably not happening. As expected, ex-football coach and Republican Tommy Tuberville easily defeated Democratic incumbent Doug Jones in Alabama. Democrats appear to have flipped two seats that they were expected to win, with former Colorado Gov. John Hicklooper beating Sen. Cory Gardner and retired astronaut Mark Kelly likely defeating Sen. Martha McSally. (ABC News has not yet called the race but the Associated Press did.) But Republicans Joni Ernst of Iowa and Steve Daines of Montana held off strong Democratic challengers. Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina also seems likely to win reelection, although that race has also not been called by most news outlets yet.

And Republicans could get an upset. Republican John James is narrowly ahead of incumbent Democratic Sen. Gary Peters, 49.3 percent to 48.7 percent, although 10 percent of the vote there remains untabulated so either candidate could win.

So the Senate looks like it’s 48-47 in favor of Democrats right now. But even if Peters overtakes James, Republicans have a very good chance of winning all three remaining seats and getting to 51 seats overall. Republican Susan Collins of Maine is ahead of her challenger, Democrat Sara Gideon, 50 percent to 44 percent. But about 26 percent of Maine votes are untabulated. Also, Maine uses a ranked-choice voting system. Gideon is likely to be the second choice of most of the supporters of the more progressive independent candidate Lisa Savage. Savage is getting about 4 percent support, so this race favors Collins but could still swing to Gideon.

In Georgia, Sen. David Purdue is narrowly ahead of Democrat Jon Ossoff, 51 percent to 47 percent, but there are a lot of outstanding ballots in that state. If Purdue does not get 50 percent of the vote, the race will go to a Jan. 5 runoff. The Senate special election in Georgia is already headed to a runoff because none of the numerous candidates received 50 percent. Incumbent GOP Sen. Kelly Loeffler and Democrat Raphael Warnock will face off in that race. Both Purdue and Loeffler would be favored in runoffs, since Georgia is a GOP-leaning state.

Sounds like we should not hold our breath for these races, I have a hard time seeing Collins lose if she only narrowly misses on the 50%


Yeah I'm following their Live blog as well.

Collins has won in Maine. So that's another seat Dems were supposed to pick up that remains red.

This is not good enough, even if Biden wins.
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Post by Babun Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:44 pm

Biden has to win NV, AZ and Mi and it's looking good so far. He'll have exactly 270 electors in that case.
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Post by Myesyats Wed Nov 04, 2020 7:44 pm

I hope they call Michigan soon.

Fingers crossed for Georgia too, that'd be dope
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Post by CBarca Wed Nov 04, 2020 8:07 pm

If Biden wins without the senate, increasingly very likely, it will be a really complicated win for Dems.

Some might say hollow, and with the margins being as razor thin as they are, maybe that's arguable (wait until all the ballots are counted, anyway...) not just from the governing/senate perspective, but from the repudiation of Trump perspective.

A lot of liberals around me feel a bit sickened with the presumptive win.

However, we should take the wins where they come. Even if it wasn't how I wanted, I'll be really happy to live in a world where we don't have a clown as the world's most powerful person. Our institutions seem as though they may bend but will not break.

But perhaps I should wait for more results before hitting down the post-mortem.
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