The Coronavirus Thread - Part 3

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Post by CBarca Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:42 pm

I think there are a lot of good faith arguments to be had about reopening the economy and when it should happen.

I just can't stand the people, and the high number of them, who are going to crawl out of the woodwork talking about how bad this lockdown was and "the cure can't be worse than the disease" etc when everyone knows that multiple Lombardy's in the US would have been devastating. Devastating to the economy, to the morale, to our governmental leadership and trust in the government, devastating to the expertise of the medical field (how many doctors/nurses could have been lost). Devastating to our trust in the healthcare system to keep us alive and healthy. And much more.

And nobody is minimizing the terrible effects that have transpired because of the economy shutting down. But I don't think there was any option.

I don't like comparing # of deaths due to cancer etc either. Those are bad faith arguments. Those deaths are spread out over time and geographically in a way that doesn't overwhelm the medical system. The disease that is COVID-19 is scary. But the scary part isn't how to handle it, or its death rate (many other diseases and indeed cancer are many times more widespread per year & worse odds), it's how quickly it spreads and what it can do to the healthcare system. So I don't like people bringing in numbers that lack the proper context to be compared.

Now if individuals want to talk about models moving forward, testing capacity, PPE availability as we move forward in the US vs the economic cost of current stay-at-home policies, now that we stand where we do...those are all good discussions to have, and indeed will very shortly become the prominent discussion

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Post by FennecFox7 Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:50 pm

@sportsczy wrote:@rincon... 40% of New Yorkers who rent apartments failed to pay their rent on April 1.  There is a 90-day moratorium on evictions.  However, come 90 days, you will owe 4 months rent... it's not forgiven AND your credit still gets destroyed.

I feat that far more than 43k people will be in dire straits with many many many downstream mental health issues.  Not to mention the economy is destroyed and unemployment spiraling out of control.

That's what Trump was worried about...  0.5% of 350 million people is 1.75 million deaths, which is what Fauci told him would be a possible outcome.  That is horrible of course and political death in an election year.  But let's put that in perspective:
- over 650k die of heart disease in the US  every year
- over 600k people die of cancer
- respiratory diseases got about 200k
- Alzheimer's gets 120k
- Diabetes 80k+
etc.

What I'm getting at is that this lockdown has to stop immediately... and I mean come May 1.  I'm willing to take the risk of dying (and I'm a prime candidate).  You can't sacrifice society like this.

At the very least, you need to implement segmentation and protect the high-risk people while allowing the others to function.


10000% this. You guys severely underestimate the economic consequences from this. I’m paying my school purely through bartending for example and I lost my job. I have money saved up and I’m working a gig right now, so I’m okay.. but lots of people won’t be

We have to rough the storm. And this is coming from someone who is about to be in the medical field. It is what it is.
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Post by sportsczy Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:00 am

Imo, I think that we'll see, in retrospect, that a lot of decisions were made more due to potential political consequences.

There have been extensive studies of poverty, hopelessness and their correlation with suicide rates.  The results have been very clear.  In the long run, i believe the impact on human life of this virus will be much larger in this context.  But this is something that won't come to light for several years and, thus, is not a consideration for leaders who are running for office in the short term.

And the numbers I shared in terms of deaths were by year...  not cumulative.  That many people died in a calendar year due to those illnesses in the United States.  Why aren't we pulling products and environmental practices that clearly cause cancer?  Why are we not removing foods that very very directly lead to higher risks of diabetes and coronary issues?  

It's just my opinion... but i feel that there's been a lot of sensationalism mixed into an obviously serious issue.  So the response feels disproportionate to me.
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Post by CBarca Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:26 am

Again, your numbers lack context.

Cancer doesn't spread to 3 other people when you get it.

I think we can all agree that cancer is both a more dangerous disease than COVID, way more challenging, and overall is the ultimate monster of a disease that humans still have many more decades before even coming to the pretense of solving it.

But Lombardy and Wuhan didn't happen from cancer. And without shutting things down, there is no reason (besides the stochastic nature of an infectious disease and luck) that that doesn't happen in most major metropolitan centers in the United States. Maybe not quite to the same extent because of the average age of Italy...but I can't imagine much better.

Using the deaths of cancer in a calendar year ignores the thing about COVID that people are actually worried about. It's no better than citing the # of deaths due to flu.
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Post by CBarca Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:29 am

@FennecFox7 wrote:

10000% this. You guys severely underestimate the economic consequences from this. I’m paying my school purely through bartending for example and I lost my job. I have money saved up and I’m working a gig right now, so I’m okay.. but lots of people won’t be

We have to rough the storm. And this is coming from someone who is about to be in the medical field. It is what it is.


I think people are well aware that individuals lost their jobs. Also, saying that you're about to be in the medical field didn't all of a sudden make your opinion on this more credible. That's like me mentioning the people my brother is watching die to make my opinion more credible.
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Post by Nishankly Thu Apr 09, 2020 6:46 am

@Nishankly wrote:My dad is being sent from the Indian Army to Kuwait to set up a Covid testing lab for 3 months leading a 15 man team.

It's similar to what we sent for Maldives.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thehindu.com/news/national/army-team-in-maldives-to-set-up-virus-testing-lab/article31084662.ece/amp/

The briefing is tomorrow, let's see what happens.


He's going for 14 days to lead a testing center to help Kuwait with Indian immigrants and handling capacity.

News from Kuwait is that one of the Indian labor camps has been infected due to private companies continuing to force them to work even during shutdown. Most of the Indians in Kuwait are unskilled laborers living in hopeless conditions. The labor camp has been effectively shutoff from society and they've been calling out to help for the Indian government to evacuate them.

Great now my Dad's fighting Covid on the forefront in a country that treats Indians as second rate, Mom is living in a Army base where Covid testing and quarantine is done, Sister is alone in the city highest infected number of cases of India, I am in the country with the 5th highest cases. Life is good, no worries lmao
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Post by Zagadka Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:18 am

It's beyond doubt now that Fauci's Gates sponsored doomsday models were completely off. Yet he still is pushing for national quarantine, even for places like Nebraska (I have a friend living there) who are barely impacted? Like even now?

BC's Sweden link is very interesting. The standout quote for me was: "it's not Sweden who's doing some mass, new experimenting, it's everyone else."

If death # in Sweden doesn't end up being Wuhan/Lumbardi-esque in terms of per capita at least, then some one, somewhere goofed up.

The economies must open up by start of May the latest. The POST PiS is extending quarantine today until May 3 in Poland...but I think that'll be the latest they can do it, short of putting tanks on the streets.

It was 22 degrees and sunny yesterday, and people were walking near the lake....sitting on the bench reading books alone already. Even if the Orwellian police is watching us from helicopters and drones in the sky and a guy got a ticket from the police as he was drinking COFFEE by the side of the main street. Unreal scenes.

I'll be cheering for Czech and Austria as they are slowly ending this undemocratic and tyrannical measures which was mostly created due to doomsday models.

The economical hit is real. There are wives being beaten up to death by their abusive husbands with no way out now, many people who have absolutely no means of putting bread on the table....Some industries are fucked well beyond quarantine (tourism and hospitality RIP) and jobs lost forever.....but extending this madness just extends the misery.

The irony is, many countries are RELEASING criminals from prison to avoid an outbreak there, yet they are handcoffing and heavily fining and in cases sending to prison ordinary citizens for great crimes of canoeing alone in the ocean, writing a journal on a lonely bench on the park, or drinking coffee under the sun.

Clown world.
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Post by Zagadka Thu Apr 09, 2020 7:21 am

@Jay29 wrote:They were justified, insofar as few countries had the means to identify where the virus was and who had it. By the time they got around to finding that stuff out, the virus had already spread everywhere. At that point, they could have left the situation alone or locked things down.

Taking a more nuanced approach would have required countries to be proactive and prepare well in-advance of the virus spreading among communities, but you can count the number of countries who did that on one hand.


maybe they were at the time....but they never meant to last THIS long unless you're a heartbeat of crisis like Italy/Spain.

UK needed to go a bit extra too I agree. It was madness to not only have that Liverpool-Atleti came to go ahead at a full stadium on March 11, but let 3,000 folks from MADRID!!!! fly to UK for the game.

About the bolded part: Taiwan looks the most clever guy in the room....Korea not far behind.
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Post by FennecFox7 Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:07 am

@CBarca wrote:
@FennecFox7 wrote:

10000% this. You guys severely underestimate the economic consequences from this. I’m paying my school purely through bartending for example and I lost my job. I have money saved up and I’m working a gig right now, so I’m okay.. but lots of people won’t be

We have to rough the storm. And this is coming from someone who is about to be in the medical field. It is what it is.


I think people are well aware that individuals lost their jobs. Also, saying that you're about to be in the medical field didn't all of a sudden make your opinion on this more credible. That's like me mentioning the people my brother is watching die to make my opinion more credible.


That little jibe was unnecessary.

My point is that people need money to pay the bills. Maybe you could pay everyone’s bills so they dont have to worry?
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Post by Art Morte Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:14 am

Those who are for opening up countries already and think the measures have been over the top... do you think it's fine to have Lombardy situations all over the world or what's your middle ground solution?
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Post by Zagadka Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:24 am

@Art Morte wrote:Those who are for opening up countries already and think the measures have been over the top... do you think it's fine to have Lombardy situations all over the world or what's your middle ground solution?


Art....we will see if Sweden or Belarus will go full Lombardy. So far nowhere has gone Lombardy.

Japan also never closed as aggressively as most of the West, but despite fake numbers, it's nowhere near Lombardy.

I think we'd all accept middle ground....maybe not as liberal and whatever as Sweden, but not as 1984 surveillance state as the rest.

Any countries that took this middle-ground measure? Japan maybe?

Also Netherlands and Belgium took totally different approaches, Netherlands closed to Sweden and Belgium closer to rest....and their numbers aren't too different the last time I checked.
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Post by rincon Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:42 am

@Zagadka wrote:
@Art Morte wrote:Those who are for opening up countries already and think the measures have been over the top... do you think it's fine to have Lombardy situations all over the world or what's your middle ground solution?


Art....we will see if Sweden or Belarus will go full Lombardy. So far nowhere has gone Lombardy.


Then you simply haven't looked.

New York has twice the amount of deaths per day at peak than Lombardy.

Spain, Belgium, France and the UK where going (or even already went) exactly that way before strict measures were applied.
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Post by Art Morte Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:54 am

@Zagadka wrote:
@Art Morte wrote:Those who are for opening up countries already and think the measures have been over the top... do you think it's fine to have Lombardy situations all over the world or what's your middle ground solution?


Art....we will see if Sweden or Belarus will go full Lombardy. So far nowhere has gone Lombardy.

Japan also never closed as aggressively as most of the West, but despite fake numbers, it's nowhere near Lombardy.

I think we'd all accept middle ground....maybe not as liberal and whatever as Sweden, but not as 1984 surveillance state as the rest.

Any countries that took this middle-ground measure? Japan maybe?

Also Netherlands and Belgium took totally different approaches, Netherlands closed to Sweden and Belgium closer to rest....and their numbers aren't too different the last time I checked.


Sweden and Japan have had a more relaxed approach. Sweden have the 8th most covid deaths by population at the moment and Tokyo just entered a four-week state of emergency. It's too early to say whether either of those countries will eventually be covid success stories or not - they might well be - but I wouldn't look at them as shining examples just yet.

I think Belgium and Netherlands were both fucked no matter what, there's just so much traffic and population density over there.

Anyway, the virus spreads so efficiently that it's really hard to find that middle ground where the healthcare system is still able to cope and there aren't too many deaths but the economy is able to keep on running to sufficient standard. Extremely hard to find that balance. Personally I think it's too difficult (until we have loads more quick testing like South Korea and are able to quickly extinguish the flames) and therefore I'm in favour of these lockdown measures.
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Post by Zagadka Thu Apr 09, 2020 10:58 am

@rincon wrote:
@Zagadka wrote:
@Art Morte wrote:Those who are for opening up countries already and think the measures have been over the top... do you think it's fine to have Lombardy situations all over the world or what's your middle ground solution?


Art....we will see if Sweden or Belarus will go full Lombardy. So far nowhere has gone Lombardy.


Then you simply haven't looked.

New York has twice the amount of deaths per day at peak than Lombardy.

Spain, Belgium, France and the UK where going (or even already went) exactly that way before strict measures were applied.


New York's population density makes it a unique case and not to mention the absolutely filthy subway system that stainds the whole population. It's interesting that none of the other mega areas of US like L.A. , Chicago or Miami, DFW have come anywhere near as close to NY numbers.

Florida is especially interesting to keep an eye on. Elderly population and and state-wide lockdown went ahead a lot later than other states and after march break.
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Post by Jay29 Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:03 am

maybe they were at the time....but they never meant to last THIS long unless you're a heartbeat of crisis like Italy/Spain.

UK needed to go a bit extra too I agree. It was madness to not only have that Liverpool-Atleti came to go ahead at a full stadium on March 11, but let 3,000 folks from MADRID!!!! fly to UK for the game.

About the bolded part: Taiwan looks the most clever guy in the room....Korea not far behind.

Yeah, that was nuts. Especially as City vs Arsenal was due to be played on the same night but was postponed when Arteta tested positive. Hard to believe all that was only a month ago. It feels a lot longer than that.

The way I see it, everyone needs to get to the same level of readiness as Taiwan and S. Korea but because there's this global traffic jam of important materials and chemicals it's going to take longer to get there. This is going to add a few weeks to any lockdown.

In the UK we've got a Cobra meeting soon to review the current measures and the expectation is it'll be extended. We officially locked-down on March 23rd, so halfway through our third week with the peak still to come... yet our media are now talking about exit strategies and asking when it's all going to end (they were asking about testing, but they've grown bored of that now). These are important things to work out but right now it's premature because we don't have enough information to make these decisions.

Meanwhile, testing and PPE here are still rubbish. Personally, I'm uncomfortable with the idea of shortening our lockdown while that's still the case. But I'm realistic enough to expect that by mid-May, when the UK is hopefully over its peak and seeing a reduction in cases and deaths, there'll be a strong appetite for things to return "normal". Countries will reach a breaking point.

I'm just looking around at other countries for an idea of how long this will last. China were locked down for about 9 weeks before they eased measures. Italy are in the middle of their 5th week and have only recently started seeing their numbers trend downwards so you'd imagine a few more weeks for them. These are a couple of a the worst hit nations so maybe for nations that aren't as densely populated and were proactive they won't need to lock down for as long.

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Post by rincon Thu Apr 09, 2020 11:14 am

@Zagadka wrote:
@rincon wrote:
@Zagadka wrote:


Art....we will see if Sweden or Belarus will go full Lombardy. So far nowhere has gone Lombardy.


Then you simply haven't looked.

New York has twice the amount of deaths per day at peak than Lombardy.

Spain, Belgium, France and the UK where going (or even already went) exactly that way before strict measures were applied.


New York's population density makes it a unique case and not to mention the absolutely filthy subway system that stainds the whole population.

That doesn't mean it doesn't exist right?

Also it isn't true that it is a unique case.

The population density of new york (159 people/km2) is two and a half times less than that of Lombardy (420 people/km2), three times less than Flanders (483 people/km2), etc. Even looking just at New York City which is probably the densest city in the US and Europe, it's comparable to the cities in these regions at 10000 people/km2 vs Milan's 7200 people/km2.

So New York got approximately 1000 deaths in a day with a reduced spread, why in the world would you want to increase that number when it is avoidable?  other cities in the US won't (or shouldn't) be as affected because the epidemic is at a less advanced stage at the time they implemented the lockdown. With NY it was too late, the rest used that as a warning sign and acted sooner. If Spain, France, UK, Belgium, etc. had acted more quickly when Italy entered into a crisis , tens of thousands of life could have been saved. Thankfully most countries have acted by now to stop this.
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Post by Art Morte Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:05 pm

@Jay29 wrote:
Meanwhile, testing and PPE here are still rubbish.


I, for one, am astonished how terrible the PPE situation seems to be globally. Finland became the latest country to order hundreds of thousands masks from China... that did not pass our tests upon arrival and cannot be used in hospitals. (Seriously, if any manufacturing moves away from China as a result of this pandemic, that's great). I saw a headline from the UK that three nurses who photoed themselves using bin bags for protection earlier have all now tested positive for covid. The shambles in the US where states are competing against each other AND the federal government for PPE shipments. This all just seems incredible to me that something relatively basic as protection equipment seems to globally run out in a couple of weeks. The lack of PPE has become a disgrace in so many countries it's just awful.
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Post by Babun Thu Apr 09, 2020 12:43 pm

@Art Morte wrote:
@Jay29 wrote:
Meanwhile, testing and PPE here are still rubbish.  


I, for one, am astonished how terrible the PPE situation seems to be globally. Finland became the latest country to order hundreds of thousands masks from China... that did not pass our tests upon arrival and cannot be used in hospitals. (Seriously, if any manufacturing moves away from China as a result of this pandemic, that's great). I saw a headline from the UK that three nurses who photoed themselves using bin bags for protection earlier have all now tested positive for covid. The shambles in the US where states are competing against each other AND the federal government for PPE shipments. This all just seems incredible to me that something relatively basic as protection equipment seems to globally run out in a couple of weeks. The lack of PPE has become a disgrace in so many countries it's just awful.

German gouvernment created a direct air corridor in collaboration with lufthansa to directly deliver the masks from Shanghai, China. TÜV experts (they take probs and measure whether products meet the standards) were transported there to check the masks before they're loaded. 40 million masks will be imported that.
https://www.nwzonline.de/wirtschaft/berlin-corona-krise-luftbruecke-fuer-schutzausruestung_a_50,7,3772389539.html
We had the exact same problems and more you now have: hoax offers with no available products asking for partial prepayment, products disappearing during the delivery process, shitty quality masks labeled as FFP3/N95 and more. There is talk about a coordinated EU purchase for of the members. If it comes true, Italy and France could create a similar corridor, we could provide then all of the EU with enough masks.
The idea behind the measure is most likely any exit strategy will still have social distancing and masks in enclosed rooms like work place, super markets or shops in place. For the strategy to work, all EU countries need shitloads of masks. This way the virus can be deprived of hosts.
Any exit strategy without social distancing and/or masks in public is asking for more of the same.
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Post by sportsczy Thu Apr 09, 2020 1:57 pm

@Art Morte wrote:Those who are for opening up countries already and think the measures have been over the top... do you think it's fine to have Lombardy situations all over the world or what's your middle ground solution?

I was talking about the US

You isolate and protect the people that are most vulnerable. Quarantine is appropriate for them.

You have a system of keeping track of those who have already had the virus and recovered... let them go back to work and function.

There are certain places, like NYC, that are far more prone because it's very European and people walk all over the place. There are many parts of the country where everyone uses a car, interaction is minimal, etc. You can't have one policy for all in a country so large.

I also think there are certain demographic groups where the chance of death is extremely low. You give them a choice of going to go out, work... or not.
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Post by rincon Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:32 pm

@sportsczy wrote:
@Art Morte wrote:Those who are for opening up countries already and think the measures have been over the top... do you think it's fine to have Lombardy situations all over the world or what's your middle ground solution?

I was talking about the US

You isolate and protect the people that are most vulnerable.  Quarantine is appropriate for them.

You have a system of keeping track of those who have already had the virus and recovered... let them go back to work and function.

This is the ideal strategy if the US (or european countries) had been prepared. They got caught flat footed with no testing capabilities, supplies, or even ppe. IIRC Taiwan, some parts of China, and others countries in the region did it like this because they were prepared and they had the infrastructure to track everyone.

Our governments don't have that level of control over individual people. So for our situation, what else is there to do but lockdowns? there aren't even enough tests in NY to test the people that are dying, let alone to test everyone that have been around people that are sick or at risk.
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Post by rincon Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:39 pm

Just checked the number of Sweden after this talk of their partial lockdown strategy.

For all the debate, Sweden has more people dying everyday that Norway, which closed down very early, has in total.

>100 people dying per day in Sweden
3 people dying per day in Norway

It seems quite clear which country has been more successful there.
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Post by CBarca Thu Apr 09, 2020 2:54 pm

@rincon wrote:Just checked the number of Sweden after this talk of their partial lockdown strategy.

For all the debate, Sweden has more people dying everyday that Norway, which closed down very early, has in total.

>100 people dying per day in Sweden
3 people dying per day in Norway

It seems quite clear which country has been more successful there.


What is death if you adjust for population?
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Post by rincon Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:11 pm

Sweden has twice the population of Norway. Normalizing the deaths by population still gives you a 15 times lower rate for Norway.

Norway closed in hard and early when this broke out. Its paying off, they contained it. Now they announced that starting April 20th certain things will progressively open. First Kindergardens and primary schools and so on.
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Post by CBarca Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:12 pm

@rincon wrote:Sweden has twice the population of Norway. Normalizing the deaths by population still gives you a 15 times lower rate for Norway.

Norway closed in hard and early when this broke out. Its paying off, they contained it. Now they announced that starting April 20th certain things will progressively open. First Kindergardens and primary schools and so on.


Apologies, it's the morning. I have no clue why I asked that when it's 3 deaths to over 100 Laughing
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:13 pm

@rincon wrote:Just checked the number of Sweden after this talk of their partial lockdown strategy.

For all the debate, Sweden has more people dying everyday that Norway, which closed down very early, has in total.

>100 people dying per day in Sweden
3 people dying per day in Norway

It seems quite clear which country has been more successful there.


The Sweden approach will see its benefits in the re-opening phase. Clearly it's worse in terms of mortality, the question is whether the mass unemployment and small business ruin it brings is "worth" the death difference. Not sure how this will ever be determined conclusively.
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Post by sportsczy Thu Apr 09, 2020 3:52 pm

You have all these government institutions in the US whose only reason for being is to deal with crisis situations... and they're nowhere to be found whenever there actually is a crisis. Never fails to fail. I say get rid of them all and allocate the money to a disaster relief fund to use when necessary.

We're just throwing money away.
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