The Coronavirus Thread - Part 3

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Post by CBarca Wed May 13, 2020 3:02 am

Alright BC, sure, but have you considered that he uses common sense?

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Post by Myesyats Wed May 13, 2020 8:34 am

I'm not equating Elon with a health organization, i'm just saying look at both viewpoints and make up your own mind. It's good advice to not panic and step back a little. Because the world isn't ending.
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Post by Myesyats Wed May 13, 2020 9:23 am

Myesyats wrote:
Zagadka wrote:Yea I was watched it mate.

   TVN24 is the only proper news channel.....Polsat and TVP are basically State TV.


The ruling party wants to hold presidential elections in May by providing the ballot papers by mail which requires the voter to mail the ballot back.
some good news at last. Elections have been postponed for now (at least until august i think) and former EU council president Donald Tusk might run replacing one candidate through mutual agreement. Which gives me hope because I think he's the only one who stands a chance, due to his popularity, against current right-wing muppet president

Maybe we will have our own Donald!!!
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Post by Zagadka Wed May 13, 2020 12:52 pm

Pretty much everything except gyms and nightclubs will open here from Monday. distancing restriction of 4square meter per one person apply and 2 meters between tables.

BUT HELL YEA, better than nothing. also official slogan has changed from #StayHome to #TakeCareOfYourself.

interesting stat btw:

NO ‘EXCESS DEATHS’ IN POLAND IN 2020
Despite the danger caused by the coronavirus pandemic, less deaths have been recorded in Poland in first quarter of 2020 compared to the same time period last year.

Since January 1st, approximately 139,000 people have died in Poland. By comparison, 145,100 died in the same period in 2019, 151,300 in 2018 and 148,000 in 2017. You have to go back to 2016 (135,800) to find a lower amount of deaths.

Some say that the lower figures this year are due to less road accidents, a mild winter and reduced amounts of pollution.

https://notesfrompoland.com/2020/05/12/number-of-deaths-in-poland-lower-during-coronavirus-pandemic-than-in-previous-years/
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Post by CBarca Wed May 13, 2020 5:28 pm

Myesyats wrote:I'm not equating Elon with a health organization, i'm just saying look at both viewpoints and make up your own mind. It's good advice to not panic and step back a little. Because the world isn't ending.


Bothsidesism is a classic fallacy. https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Balance_fallacy

A classic fallacy you see in this thread a lot is appeal to common sense or appeal to intuition: https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Common_sense (see the "flawed use" section).

As always, the best thing to do is to form data-based, evidence based decisions based on those who are most knowledgeable on the subject. Don't watch MSNBC. Don't watch Fox News. Watch reliable news like PBS Newshour or listen to NPR. Perhaps even better: Get twitter and follow people who are economists, data scientists, statisticians, epidemiologists, and public health experts. Ignore twitter bots. Don't be afraid to change your opinion in the face of evidence that you are wrong. When something seems fishy, check it out on politifact or snopes. Both are sites that fact check and dispel myths and fake news.

If people would like suggestions on who to follow, I am more than happy to share. My suggestions will, of course, be primarily US based as that is my primary interest. However, it is a pandemic, so most of these experts also talk about other places too.

I think we could have way better discussions here with those few easy steps.
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Post by elitedam Wed May 13, 2020 5:37 pm

Do you have any suggestions for well-thought-out conservative viewpoints? I tried Ben Shapiro a while back and it was terrible.
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Post by CBarca Wed May 13, 2020 5:57 pm

Not particularly. But I am an advocate of avoiding looking at "liberal" or "conservative" viewpoints as a way of finding information. To me, it's a case of bothsidesism. People look at the liberal viewpoint and the conservative and try to find the truth. While that's better than ingesting just one, the issue is that you'll get misinformation from both depending on how biased the source is.

In essence, you haven't viewed two different viewpoints of the same topic, you've viewed two misinformed viewpoints of the same topic, and that's not helpful.

So the best course of action is to try and find organizations that are dedicated to the pure art of fact checking or information sources that are as close to down the middle as you can get (like NPR/PBS which are publically/governmentally funded as well as places like AP News or Reuters that just report the facts).

Now if it's because you want to just take a peak at what conservatives are thinking as opposed to looking at a conservative news site as a legitimate way of ingesting any sort of information, I would suggest anything on Fox News, especially Hannity and Tucker Carlson. That's what the majority of conservatives are watching. I don't think they're "well thought out", but it's what most conservatives watch.

For well thought out, you could try David Brooks of the NY Times. Or perhaps some of the founders of The Lincoln Project. However, know that those are conservatives who despise Trump.

Others could certainly comment on this too. I'm not an expert on conservative news sources or editorials.

I should also say with my previous post that you need to be careful because experts still have biases and beliefs. So you need to read those individuals carefully. However, generally, experts are much better than the general population and also the media at large about forming opinions that are evidence-based.
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Post by McLewis Wed May 13, 2020 6:00 pm

elitedam wrote:Do you have any suggestions for well-thought-out conservative viewpoints? I tried Ben Shapiro a while back and it was terrible.


So I'm progressive, but I do like to get the other side's perspective without it being Infowars or Breitbart level's of crazy. That and echo chambers are boring.

A few of these sources are conservative leaning, but palatable for me:

The Washington Times
Townhall.com
The Wall Street Journal

Shapiro comes from the Daily Caller and that one is largely ok, but does have some questionable writers.

Townhall.com is perhaps the best of the right-wing sources that I've come across. It's clearly right-wing, but it's coherent enough where it's still noticeably conservative without being Trump-flavored conservative.

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Post by BarrileteCosmico Wed May 13, 2020 7:07 pm

elitedam wrote:Do you have any suggestions for well-thought-out conservative viewpoints? I tried Ben Shapiro a while back and it was terrible.
I would check out National Review and the WSJ Opinion section (from a US perspective).
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Post by Hapless_Hans Wed May 13, 2020 7:29 pm

CBarca wrote:
Myesyats wrote:I'm not equating Elon with a health organization, i'm just saying look at both viewpoints and make up your own mind. It's good advice to not panic and step back a little. Because the world isn't ending.


Bothsidesism is a classic fallacy. https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Balance_fallacy

A classic fallacy you see in this thread a lot is appeal to common sense or appeal to intuition: https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Common_sense (see the "flawed use" section).

As always, the best thing to do is to form data-based, evidence based decisions based on those who are most knowledgeable on the subject. Don't watch MSNBC. Don't watch Fox News. Watch reliable news like PBS Newshour or listen to NPR. Perhaps even better: Get twitter and follow people who are economists, data scientists, statisticians, epidemiologists, and public health experts. Ignore twitter bots. Don't be afraid to change your opinion in the face of evidence that you are wrong. When something seems fishy, check it out on politifact or snopes. Both are sites that fact check and dispel myths and fake news.

If people would like suggestions on who to follow, I am more than happy to share. My suggestions will, of course, be primarily US based as that is my primary interest. However, it is a pandemic, so most of these experts also talk about other places too.

I think we could have way better discussions here with those few easy steps.




Not necessarily meaning this Corona-related, yet I really do believe that the obsession of CNN and the news media with "balance" and presenting "two sides", mirroring the idiocy of the two party system, and the quintessentially, tragically wrong conception of objectivity that grows out of this, have made the horrifying pulverization of reality, the bizarrely skewed nonsense that's going on, in current US political pratice possible, or even caused it to a good part.

As Michelle Wolf put it to CNN, "you guys love breaking news, and you did it - you broke it... good work"
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Post by El Gunner Wed May 13, 2020 8:44 pm

CBarca wrote:
Myesyats wrote:I'm not equating Elon with a health organization, i'm just saying look at both viewpoints and make up your own mind. It's good advice to not panic and step back a little. Because the world isn't ending.


Bothsidesism is a classic fallacy. https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Balance_fallacy

A classic fallacy you see in this thread a lot is appeal to common sense or appeal to intuition: https://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Common_sense (see the "flawed use" section).

As always, the best thing to do is to form data-based, evidence based decisions based on those who are most knowledgeable on the subject. Don't watch MSNBC. Don't watch Fox News. Watch reliable news like PBS Newshour or listen to NPR. Perhaps even better: Get twitter and follow people who are economists, data scientists, statisticians, epidemiologists, and public health experts. Ignore twitter bots. Don't be afraid to change your opinion in the face of evidence that you are wrong. When something seems fishy, check it out on politifact or snopes. Both are sites that fact check and dispel myths and fake news.

If people would like suggestions on who to follow, I am more than happy to share. My suggestions will, of course, be primarily US based as that is my primary interest. However, it is a pandemic, so most of these experts also talk about other places too.

I think we could have way better discussions here with those few easy steps.


THE PEOPLE

When the people start a raucous
They want to tear down a fortress
Swordless, only with the ills of difference
Sauté, cooking stew underneath them
Seethed and unteethed
Who is going to set this pattern alight
What will the ashes bring
The saddest things, damnest things
Settle here
When the people start a raucous
You are bound to find a carcass
Nature's will determined
But these days
There seems to be an added dimension
Tension per communication
"Why are you not tuning into my station?"
Where we speak of the real issues
Behind the subjects causing them
Let's go ahead and bash and slam
Identity politics has my mind
Stacked up on artillery units
Ready to lay waste to what you say
A life in your day
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Post by Babun Wed May 13, 2020 9:47 pm

A very interesting study not originating from China estimates that 2.3 million people in Spain have got antibodies vs the Wuhan virus.
Source:
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/study-5-of-spanish-population-has-had-coronavirus/1839965

The total official number for the Wuhan virus deaths in Spain is 27104 at the moment. Not counting the overmortality which isn't present in both statistics we get:
IFR = 27104/2300000 * 100% = 1.17%

It means the estimate for the IFR is at least 1.17%. Wuhan virus isn't a flu at all and very dangerous. One of every hundred infected died.
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Post by Warrior Wed May 13, 2020 11:04 pm

Some persons STILL think covid is a mere flu Laughing Laughing how deluded :facepalm:

Must go to the grocery store now and it's unclear whether it's mandatory to wear a mask. I'll bring a scarf to roll around my face just in case.

Funny that in the beginning it was supposedly pointless to wear masks, now it became the symbol of the fight between the "pro-lockdown" and "pro-normality" extremists
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Post by McLewis Wed May 13, 2020 11:55 pm

I see people calling it "the flu" constantly here. They are usually opponents of my state's governor, which makes them Trump supporters.

They are no better than anti-vaxxers and are every bit as dangerous.

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Post by elitedam Thu May 14, 2020 4:31 am

Thanks for the information, guys.

Cbarca,

I don't mean getting information or the news from them. I meant more like getting their takes on the news, the opinion pieces.
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Post by sportsczy Thu May 14, 2020 5:13 am

McLewis wrote:I see people calling it "the flu" constantly here. They are usually opponents of my state's governor, which makes them Trump supporters.

They are no better than anti-vaxxers and are every bit as dangerous.

Well, coronavirus and the flu are both viral infections that lead to respiratory illness.  Same symptoms.  The big difference today is that we have treatments and vaccines for the flu... so we're able to control both contagion and the actual impact of the illness.  C19 is not caused by influenza though so, technically, it's not the flu.

The Spanish Flu is an example of the flu and it was similarly deadly as C19 could be.

Second...  most ongoing studies and data are showing that people under the age of 60 with no pre-existing conditions face a similar death rate as the flu from C19...  namely 0.1-0.2%.  So the case is building that you can allow people that are not in the "risk" categories to go on with their lives, if they choose to do so, and protect the rest.  I assume that most people have elder relatives and people in their lives that have some of the dangerous pre-existing conditions... so they may choose not to.  However, it's not the government's job or authority (in the US at least) to make such decisions for people unless there's a proven imminent threat.  They cannot prove such a threat anymore as the data is going in the opposite direction.  In fact, given the economic impact of C19 on the country, there's more of an existential threat there many people would argue.  We don't have a social system that provides a safety net...  you're on the street.  And please don't mention the moratorium on rent/leases.  Unless you do the same for landlords with loans on their real estate (all of them), then it's unsustainable.  You would need to have a bank bailout package ready because they would go insolvent if they don't collect interest payments on real estate.  It's not a path worth considering as it's unfeasible.

Wisconsin's supreme court did the absolute right thing by canceling the governor's order to extend the lockdown there.  It's not his/her decision.  We know enough now that people should be allowed to make choices for themselves.  The US is not a police state.
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Post by CBarca Thu May 14, 2020 5:21 am

Annnnndddd bars are absolutely packed.

What a joke.

Look, I disagree with the decision but there is absolutely NO CONCEIVABLE REASON to have fucking implemented the fucking decision IMMEDIATELY.

Give the fuckin assembly time to work with the governor on a new goddamn plan

I'm so fucking pissed. I'm not even commenting on the decision.
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Post by CBarca Thu May 14, 2020 5:22 am

Once again my state is a goddamn embarrassment. I'm tired of this shit.

It's one fucking GOP shitshow after another. WI hasn't managed to stay out of the news since Evers came in (immediately stripped of powers by legislature).
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Post by sportsczy Thu May 14, 2020 5:22 am

I applaud it... realizing full well I'm in the minority here.
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Post by CBarca Thu May 14, 2020 5:23 am

Dane county immediately reimplemented the order at least. Sue us too please.
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Post by CBarca Thu May 14, 2020 5:27 am

Yeah you're going to applaud it.

But effective immediately with absolutely no restrictions? The legislature...the embarrassment known as the GOP lead legislature even asked for a stay and the court said fuck you

There is no reason to throw the state into disarray like this. It's irresponsible. If the problem is a governor and health secretary overstepping then allow a path forward with the legislature. The GOP is gonna fuck us in the ass anyway, but at least it's controlled and unified messaging from the state government.

There are no excuses for this
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Post by sportsczy Thu May 14, 2020 5:30 am

CBarca wrote:Dane county immediately reimplemented the order at least. Sue us too please.

It will be stuck down within 24 hours.  There will be a temporary restraining order issued until they can show why they don't fall under the state supreme court's decision.

It's a political move more than anything else.

look...if you feel unsafe, stay home.  Nobody is forcing you to go outside.  Similarly, nobody should force you to stay in or businesses to stay closed.  People should take responsibility for themselves.

I'm certainly not going to go to a bar/restaurant or a sporting event once things open because i have pre-existing issues and my mom is elderly. Even now, I go for walks with my mom at 7am to avoid everyone.  But that's my decision.
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Post by elitedam Thu May 14, 2020 5:46 am

sportsczy wrote:

Second...  most ongoing studies and data are showing that people under the age of 60 with no pre-existing conditions face a similar death rate as the flu from C19...  namely 0.1-0.2%.  


You're comparing the death rate from all age groups of the flu to the death rate of people under 60 of C19.

That makes no sense.
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Post by CBarca Thu May 14, 2020 5:48 am

It's not about me, it's about public health. I'm fit as a fiddle and young. I'm not dying from COVID. My father would be at a very high risk with any exposure, however.

Regardless, we already know your position and you know mine. That's why I haven't even discussed the merits of the decision. Only criticized the way it's been done (which is disgraceful and you know it). I don't think you're even discussing with me, you're talking past me right now.
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Post by Thimmy Thu May 14, 2020 5:57 am

I like to think that I’m fit, healthy and relatively young as well, but I’ve read too many reports of people becoming very sick or even dying, due to underlying causes that they weren’t aware of - to assume that I’m undoubtedly in the safe zone. It seems to be rare for young people to die from this, but it certainly does happen.

I mean, evidently, you can be healthy enough to work out and play sports, and still carry diseases that put you at risk of being exposed to the Coronavirus. It’s a risk most young people are willing to bet on, but I don’t personally want to assume that I’m immune to this ilness that the world seems to know so little about.
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Post by Warrior Thu May 14, 2020 6:05 am

You guys read anything definitive about how the virus is a threat for some people more than others ? I have not

Majority of people have no problems with covid. For some it affects the lungs, for others it gives a heart stroke or it creates blood clots. Also a strong immune response to the infection can fuck you up. Seems quite an agressive virus if you ask me, maybe a poster with better medical knowledge can sort that out.

Experts have a wide range of observations and conclusions, because of that, it's easier to build an opinion molded on personal interests. What makes the least sense "covid is 1/10 gravity" it's just collateral damage of a tunnel vision that puts individual liberty above everything else. Many trumpists in that lot Laughing
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