Re: The Coronavirus Thread - Part 3

[Jay29]

I'm just baffled why mask wearing hasn't been mentioned at all. How can they actively encourage people to return to work and go outside more without encouraging mask use as well? If they're worried about transmission on public transport, this is an easy thing to introduce, isn't it?

Going outside more I get because transmission outside is less likely as it is indoors, but I really fear some parks are going to be packed out by people "exercising".

Testing and PPE are still problems. Now they're going for 200,000 tests a day despite barely keeping up 70,000 a day. This is a vital part of the strategy they still haven't sorted out.

[Zagadka]

Can those who are blaming ordinary people please explain...what's the end goal? Do we stay locked in forever?

Because there is every change there there'll never be a vaccine or cure. we still don't have one for HIV, hell even the flu shot isn't always effective. So what's the end point? Stay locked inside forever? Wear masks for indefinite amount of time? At some point people won't even have money to buy food if this drags on for months and months more.

we're looking at the greatest economic catastrophe in nearly 90 years.

And contrary to what @RG says, it's the poor that are suffering most, and not the rich elite. The rich elite don't have to worry about where their next rent money, slide of bread, drinking water or toilet paper money is gonna come from. It's not them losing their jobs and livelihood, it's your average joes.

In a way it's a class warfare. Those who advocate for longer, full-scale lockdowns must have enough savings or be well off or be able to online-work for ever and not to be impacted by it...for people in the lower class it's not the case. The bluecollar worker can't work from home. They are the ones that will be ruined economically.

Unfortunately, the climate around this talk has become that if you oppose mass lock downs, you want people to die. It's not the case. I also don't understand blaming people for getting some air at the park after months of being caged in like animals. Us humans are social animals, and if Coronavirus will take the "Social" part away from our life (no, then the future is extremely bleak and it's not because of the virus.)

At what stage is it acceptable to go to the park, get some sun, and kick a ball around with your mates.? The way the doom mongers already predicting 2nd and 3rd waves coming with certainty...then we may as well pack life in and give up.

Or we find a way to live with the virus the same way people did 100 years ago under much worst conditions , and then 60 years ago under https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hong_Kong_flu.

[El Gunner]

^^they want to trust their governments and doctors who havent shown the slightest bit of competence in controlling this overblown fiasco.

Lockdowns wont work anymore, the people are too smart for that nonsense, hence people having gone out even when lockdown was still strict, and hence governments lifting lockdown restrictions now because they see they cant control THE PEOPLE that way.

[El Gunner]

And contrary to what @RG says, it's the poor that are suffering most, and not the rich elite.

RG said that??? wowwww
i think he might also be in camp "Sports/Arq/rincon/CZelda" when it comes to how they view the world

[Jay29]

Can those who are blaming ordinary people please explain...what's the end goal? Do we stay locked in forever?

Because there is every change there there'll never be a vaccine or cure. we still don't have one for HIV, hell even the flu shot isn't always effective. So what's the end point? Stay locked inside forever? Wear masks for indefinite amount of time? At some point people won't even have money to buy food if this drags on for months and months more.

The end goal is nations being fully equipped to control the spread of the virus and to handle exponential rises in cases. That means having the testing capabilities, the technology to trace contacts, sufficient PPE for frontline medical workers, the facilities to treat a large number of patients and, if at all possible, some kind of treatment to reduce the severity of cases.

Once you have those, you can ease up on restrictions, because now nations will have other means of reducing the R0 and won't be so concerned about healthcare collapsing under the strain of too many infections. The lockdowns were never the solution to anything. They were there so the world could play catch-up.

Unfortunately, the climate around this talk has become that if you oppose mass lock downs, you want people to die. It's not the case. I also don't understand blaming people for getting some air at the park after months of being caged in like animals. Us humans are social animals, and if Coronavirus will take the "Social" part away from our life (no, then the future is extremely bleak and it's not because of the virus.)

At what stage is it acceptable to go to the park, get some sun, and kick a ball around with your mates.? The way the doom mongers already predicting 2nd and 3rd waves coming with certainty...then we may as well pack life in and give up.

It's wholly dependent on where you live and how severe the restrictions imposed are. In the UK, everyone could go out if they wanted to. The only restrictions in place were a) you could only be by yourself or with members of your household and b) you had to keep a distance from others. There was very little stopping you from going to a park for fresh air and exercise. I've been doing it since this all started. So for us at least, nobody has been "caged in like animals".

However, this has to be carefully managed because some people will become complacent or reckless without clear instruction. Once a government starts throwing around a phrase like "unlimited exercise", you will have some people thinking it's okay to meet up with your mates, have bigger gatherings, etc. Problem is, that single group can infect hundreds of others unknowingly. Worst case scenario is that results in an exponential rise in cases and we're back in lockdown again.

This only becomes acceptable when the means to test all of those individuals and to trace their contacts are available. If you have those, you can put just those people into isolation and prevent the virus from spreading too much.

I don't know about others but I've never advocated for lockdowns lasting forever. All I want is readiness and knowledge so we can minimise fatalities as much as possible... which we could have had if governments took action in December and not March. That they waited so long to do anything put everyone in this impossible scenario where they can either die in three weeks of the virus or die in three months of starvation.

[Firenze]

[RealGunner]

And contrary to what @RG says, it's the poor that are suffering most, and not the rich elite.

RG said that??? wowwww
i think he might also be in camp "Sports/Arq/rincon/CZelda" when it comes to how they view the world

That seems grossly out of context

[Robespierre]

Essentially locked forever is a perspective for noone , it 's not happened even in Italy that is the greatest hotbed in Europe.
There is phase-2 now, a sort of intermediate phases who permits to go out. not need of "justified objective reasons" now. but you must continue to act responsibly, it means  you must keep a safe distance and you must wear mask.Sadly it will be this till to when you 'll not get virus or therapy.
Basically every country must carry out as first thing a rigorous lockdown .
In Italy it was fundamental so as to not   clogg ( saturate) the sanitary system
.Having made it, you can star from the assumption that you're forced to live the contagion, and so you can open again some activities because your calculations say you that there is not risk to saturate your hospital wards
I mean Milan built  a temporary healthcare - spending 21 mln - in only 10 days  because saturation looked like impending.(!) . As Sweden 's considered a model it is beyond me . Especially if we try comparison between states so diffferent for population , density etc  Conversely Sweden and Norway have populations, densities etc that make them comparable and at same time they'vfe opposite policies that allow an effective comparison. And I'd prefer being Norwegian.

[sportsczy]

Robes... i don't think there's one policy fits all.

To me, you look at demographics and health statistics on a region by region basis. My sense from having travelled to Sweden is that they're a very healthy population. Socially, they're not very demonstrative and you don't have people hugging & kissing each other all the time. Also, the cities are big but don't feel saturated.

Now, let's take NYC. No way you can implement the herd policy here. 8 million people would get sick within 30 days lol. Not possible.

That's been my whole problem with this. There was no need to shut down the entire US imo. International borders? sure. Big cities? again, yes. But you could have kept a nice percentage of the country open, while protecting the vulnerable populations there, and take tougher measures everywhere else.

The whole thing was thought out like shit.

[Nishankly]

Robes...  i don't think there's one policy fits all.

To me, you look at demographics and health statistics on a region by region basis.  My sense from having travelled to Sweden is that they're a very healthy population.  Socially, they're not very demonstrative and you don't have people hugging & kissing each other all the time.  Also, the cities are big but don't feel saturated.

Now, let's take NYC.  No way you can implement the herd policy here.  8 million people would get sick within 30 days lol.  Not possible.

That's been my whole problem with this.  There was no need to shut down the entire US imo.  International borders?  sure.  Big cities?  again, yes.  But you could have kept a nice percentage of the country open, while protecting the vulnerable populations there, and take tougher measures everywhere else.

The whole thing was thought out like shit.

Depends on the number of International airports within the country and the travel history of infected patients who have already arrived into the country.

As far as I can see, every single state of the US has infected patients? and when you dig deeper you see most of the states have 100s of cases in every district?

In India within 2 days, we had about 25 cases that traveled to various major cities of the country after landing in international airports, using trains, cabs, buses in multiple cities. We went into lockdown on the 24th of March with 100 cases, we're at 65,000 now dragging it slowly and slowly unlike the spikes in other countries.

Hell, my own friend escaped the lockdown from France, travelled from Lille to Paris by bus, waited at CDG for 5 hours, then got onto the flight to Delhi, landed in Delhi and waited at Delhi airport for 7 hours, then got on a domestic flight to Kolkata 2000 kilometres away, then got out of the airport, then took the bus home to his family and then started self home based quarantine.

He wasn't even infected. Infected people have done the same but they've used long distance trains where you have about 8 people sleeping in a locked air conditioned compartment within a distance of 1 metre of each other, within the country after landing at an international airport. Now this trains stops at about 25 cities along its journey with people hopping on and people hopping off.

The lockdown is essentially to stop the spread of the viruses once it has escaped the tracking of the government, the virus broke out in January, these countries waited till March to impose the lockdown. It was done once everyone realized that the virus has reached places where it shouldn't have. These governments have waited enough to "cage" us, well most of them in Europe did wait about 1-1.5 weeks more than Italy (who also waited till it hit about 5000 cases and became evident that it had gone out of control after tracking infected patients)

The solution was government based quarantine from day 1 which I hope all countries will do from next time. An independent large facility to house any imported cases and treat them there rather than sending them into home quarantine which doesn't work.

[Warrior]

Unlockdown delayed to may 25th here. Rest of the province is one week before, so may 18th.

Doesn't help that my city has half of the cases in whole Canada the curve has barely flattened yet

My grandma's covid test came back negative, surprisingly, since there are 65 active cases where she lives. Overall you can tell most people are the "fuck all that" mindset... Personally i'd sacrifice the whole month of june and make sure the virus vanish, instead of a second wave in august or something. The grand prix has been cancelled, it's my favorite event by damn far, in my mind the beginning of summer is already screwed.

[CBarca]

Much of rural America has been relatively unaffected while states and counties that want to are choosing to reopen.

The strategy has been fine in the US re: shutdowns. The only issue has been the lack of testing/PPE/other federal government failings.

Biggest fallacy people are falling into is the idea the economy wouldn't be tanking right now if we never shut down.

[CBarca]

I feel bad for people that have lost their jobs. Not only are they unemployed, but they have a legitimate grievance and a reason to be angry, even if their anger isn't necessarily justified.

I've never known how many weak willed, entitled people walked around me. Their anger makes those unemployed I was just talking about look bad.

People legit rabid because they have to wear a mask in a Costco. People seeing blood because they can't get an overpriced beer at their favorite overpriced bar.

Go outside. Read a book. Learn something online. Go start a garden. Try a new hairstyle. Adapt, improvise, overcome. This is so easy.

[sportsczy]

A lot of the companies that have operations in rural areas closed down and laid off employees for no good reason.  None.  

It's a travesty.  Elon Musk said it best here on May 7th: "It's almost as if some people wanted panic. It's crazy":

[Myesyats]

I kind of agree. The panic that media incites is probs worse than the virus itself.

Obviously it's not easy for people who have actually lost family members, touchy subject.

[Babun]

90% of people around me act as if the Wuhan virus time is over. They don't keep the proper distance anymore, wear their mask half way etc.
The criterion for the unlockdown is less than 50/100000 newly infected averaged over 7 days. Four locations have already surpassed the limit but there is no re-lockdown, Merkel doesn't have the authority over the issue anymore. The federal states decide everything.
I think the unlockdown was politicaly anavoidable. Let's just brace for the 2nd, 3rd and n-th wave and hope for the best, for a prolonged total lockdown isn't sustainable

[Nishankly]

Much of rural America has been relatively unaffected while states and counties that want to are choosing to reopen.

The strategy has been fine in the US re: shutdowns. The only issue has been the lack of testing/PPE/other federal government failings.

Biggest fallacy people are falling into is the idea the economy wouldn't be tanking right now if we never shut down.

Not the same in India, its split 50-50% between tier 1,2 cities and rural areas mostly because curfew was broken by religious groups and then they traveled back to their villages.

[CBarca]

Elon is not a credible source of information and neither is Joe Rogan.

Elon spreads misinformation on coronavirus like it's going out of style. You should listen/read what experts have to say. Not a eccentric megabillionaire with an agenda.

[sportsczy]

Experts are useless in the case of driving public policy.  They contradict each other all the time.  CDC has changed its tune about 5 times at least.  WHO.... likely 10.  

Nobody has more of an agenda than a scientist who commits to a model and conclusions.  They will defend their theory until death.

You don't let health administrators drive public policy.  They can warn you and give you their theories... but you better figure out how that applies in real circumstances + talk to every credible scientist in the world.

[El Gunner]

im sure CZelda is a keen disciple of Dr. Fauci?

Elon seems very timid and indifferent in the way he is answering questions in that interview. But yea, Elon used to be cool, but in the last two years he has shown the world what a massive dick he really is

[rincon]

Experts are useless in the case of driving public policy.

Ridiculous sentiment. An expert (in whatever field is relevant to the matter) is exactly who should be listened to when making decisions. Who else should drive public policy but the people that dedicate their lives to this? ignorant third parties?

Also as the others say, listening to Elon is pointless

[McLewis]

Experts are useless in the case of driving public policy.  They contradict each other all the time.  CDC has changed its tune about 5 times at least.  WHO.... likely 10.  

Nobody has more of an agenda than a scientist who commits to a model and conclusions.  They will defend their theory until death.

You don't let health administrators drive public policy.  They can warn you and give you their theories... but you better figure out how that applies in real circumstances + talk to every credible scientist in the world.

Who should drive public policy during a global pandemic?

[Zagadka]

Elon is not a credible source of information and neither is Joe Rogan.

Elon spreads misinformation on coronavirus like it's going out of style. You should listen/read what experts have to say. Not a eccentric megabillionaire with an agenda.

Experts at WHO who said virus won't transmit from people to people in mid-January, or when they said masks will actually put you in more harm in early march?

Or experts who's over-pessimistic models have proven to be EXTREMELY off? New York was supported to be a human catastrophe with mass shortage of ventilators and lack of hospital beds...I don't understand this fascination with the experts as if they are faultless GODs. But they've given soooo much contracting info in this saga, they've badly hurt their own credibility.

Similar to people who idolize the "Intelligence Community" as GODs, whereas their false info has led to the most disastrous foreign policy decisions.

Nassim Taleb put it best: ""the higher you go, the more incompetent institutions are. The most incompetent people are in places such as the WHO and the US Centres for Disease Control; the most competent people are in small villages."

[Jay29]

UK gov has now advised the use of face coverings in public spaces.

Good decision, in the end.

They've put out a 60-page doc of what the plans are and it seems June 1st is the magic date for a lot of sectors.

[sportsczy]

Experts are useless in the case of driving public policy.  They contradict each other all the time.  CDC has changed its tune about 5 times at least.  WHO.... likely 10.  

Nobody has more of an agenda than a scientist who commits to a model and conclusions.  They will defend their theory until death.

You don't let health administrators drive public policy.  They can warn you and give you their theories... but you better figure out how that applies in real circumstances + talk to every credible scientist in the world.

Who should drive public policy during a global pandemic?

Not just one group. The impact involves everything... so economists, labor experts, trade experts, public policy experts, etc AND public health officials. You need to weigh everything and then decide. You can't just look at one data set.

This was just some half-baked, panicked, politically-driven shit show.

[CBarca]

Our model of the atom has been extremely off for centuries, throughout the entire course of human history until relatively recently, and we're still figuring out information about it. Physicists and atomic theorists have BADLY damaged their credibility.

Our model of disease, germs, and bacteria was off for millennia until relatively recently in human history. We're still learning a lot about bacteria, and only know a small fraction of all the available bacteria. Our doctors and microbiologists have BADLY damaged their credibility.

Our model of global warming was nonexistent (despite it happening in front of our own eyes) for many years. Our scientists, climatologists, and meteorologists have BADLY damaged their credibility.

All of these idiots have damaged their credibility by pushing forward models that have been proven to be wrong. We shouldn't listen to them.

You guys either don't understand how science works, or you're being willfully ignorant.

The ultimate tragedy of public health policy is that if it works, people think you overreacted. That, and we're apparently too far away from Wuhan, NY and Bergamo for people to remember what happened.

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