The Coronavirus Thread - Part 3

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Post by iftikhar Wed Apr 08, 2020 10:00 am

Any of our regular posters gone missing recently? How is @Vibe?

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Post by Art Morte Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:21 pm

Belgium is becoming one of the hardest-hit corona countries. If we exclude the midgets of San Marino and Andorra, Belgium have the third most deaths per population after Italy and Spain right now.

Apparently a quarter of deaths in Sweden have been in care homes.
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Post by sportsczy Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:48 pm

@Babun wrote:My bro's report who works  in a hospital in Hamburg:
Additional ICU capacity was freed by postponing non immediate operations etc.
As of now, half of the hospital is empty because the expected coronavirus wave of sick people isn't there. Lots of them, including him, stay for the most part at home through Kurzarbeit, for there isn't much to do.
According to statistics, Hamburg is one of the most hard hit region per capita in Germany Very Happy
Either the measures work extremly well or the Wuhan virus is overestimated.

Both methinks.  Other than NYC, where the virus actually showed up in December according to reports, the rest of the US is mostly doing OK.  NYC deaths are rising but new cases are starting to even out.  They're also saying that regular pneumonia are being categorized as Covid19 by mistake (antibiotics work here). In any case, all the models have been revised downward.

Let's hope things are shifting towards the final phase of a lockdown.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Wed Apr 08, 2020 1:50 pm

@iftikhar wrote:Any of our regular posters gone missing recently? How is @Vibe?

He's been posting in other threads, seems fine so far
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Post by Art Morte Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:00 pm

@sportsczy wrote:
@Babun wrote:My bro's report who works  in a hospital in Hamburg:
Additional ICU capacity was freed by postponing non immediate operations etc.
As of now, half of the hospital is empty because the expected coronavirus wave of sick people isn't there. Lots of them, including him, stay for the most part at home through Kurzarbeit, for there isn't much to do.
According to statistics, Hamburg is one of the most hard hit region per capita in Germany Very Happy
Either the measures work extremly well or the Wuhan virus is overestimated.

Both methinks.  Other than NYC, where the virus actually showed up in December according to reports, the rest of the US is mostly doing OK.  NYC deaths are rising but new cases are starting to even out.  They're also saying that regular pneumonia are being categorized as Covid19 by mistake (antibiotics work here). In any case, all the models have been revised downward.

Let's hope things are shifting towards the final phase of a lockdown.


It spreads so easily that I'm sceptical about this talk that's starting to come out of several countries now, that maybe lockdown measures can be eased soon.You don't need many cases at all in a community for the numbers to shoot right back up.
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Post by CBarca Wed Apr 08, 2020 2:04 pm

I find it generally annoying when people try to say deaths are overcounted or undercounted. The fact of the matter is that both are happening...it's impossible to say what direction it's in.
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Post by Zagadka Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:30 pm

Czech will lift some parts of the lockdown starting Monday. They have 25% population of Poland yet identical # of cases...but their new case per day has been flat for nearly a week.

Hearing Austria and Denmark have similar plans too.

Hope it's start of the chain...

no more being surveilled by drones on the sky or bickering it for a walk outside...I just want to have a coffee at a cafe again.

I mean, it's all fine to say that once lockdown is lifted, numbers will shoot back up....but you can't keep people caged all the time either. The economic devastation, depression, suicide, mental illness, domestic abuse cases (huge talking point on FRA 24 now)....

The point of the quarantine was to manage the spread, contain the situation....not to make it last until a vaccine or virus' complete eradication.

We've been in lockdown for almost a month in a city of 650,000 ....yet total of 234 cases and 4 deaths in the city over the past month. Makes you wonder sometimes if these draculan measures are justified.
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Post by Jay29 Wed Apr 08, 2020 3:46 pm

They were justified, insofar as few countries had the means to identify where the virus was and who had it. By the time they got around to finding that stuff out, the virus had already spread everywhere. At that point, they could have left the situation alone or locked things down.

Taking a more nuanced approach would have required countries to be proactive and prepare well in-advance of the virus spreading among communities, but you can count the number of countries who did that on one hand.

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Post by BarrileteCosmico Wed Apr 08, 2020 4:00 pm

https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/

Interesting article on the other approach, not sure we will ever be able to say which was better even after this is all set and done
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Post by sportsczy Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:13 pm

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/

Interesting article on the other approach, not sure we will ever be able to say which was better even after this is all set and done

The non-political scientific studies...  who base their stats on infected cruise ships and health care workers since they're all exposed and they all get tested (true data)...  estimate an average mortality rate around 0.5% to date.

The issue of bad data isn't discussed enough.

I think the public health people that are leading this lockdown took things way too far.  That's my personal opinion and has been from the beginning.  

For example, in the worst case scenario, NYC deaths are estimated at 16k.  It's being revised downward to 10k.  The virus has been here since December.  This is a city of 8.6 million people crammed on top of each other.  Not to mention, it's still impossible to get a test and people are scared to anyhow since the testing centers are corona contaminated. Why take the risk if you don't have it potentially?


Last edited by sportsczy on Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:18 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Post by The Demon of Carthage Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:15 pm

Just when things started to look a little bit better for France in the weekend in terms of number of deaths, everything soared again during the week.

1417 dead yesterday (10 328 overall). Expect the number to hit 11000 today.

In Tunisia, things looked great at the beginning with the government deciding to go directly to level-3 confinement before there was even a dead person in the country. The usage of chloroquine + azithromycin was also used from the beginning and it helped the affected a lot to reduce their viral charge.

So far, Tunisia has 623 confirmed cases with 25 recovered and 23 dead, mainly thanks to those two decisions.

Yesterday though, the health minister had a press conference and literally cried because he noticed there was a portion of the population that didn't respect the confinement and he said that everything the government has made to make Tunisia cope well with the coronavirus will all crumble because of that portion that didn't want to stay home.

I really can't blame those who have day jobs and have to go out every day to have money to feed themselves, but I do blame those who are financially stable and yet didn't want to stay home.
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Post by The Demon of Carthage Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:25 pm

Here's what the Tunisian government uses to patrol the streets and catch those who don't respect the confinement:

The Coronavirus Thread - Part 3 - Page 2 _111602953_tunisia_afp

I wish there was also a gun attached to it to shoot those who have no legitimate excuse to be outside.
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Post by rincon Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:29 pm

@sportsczy wrote:
@BarrileteCosmico wrote:https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/

Interesting article on the other approach, not sure we will ever be able to say which was better even after this is all set and done

The non-political scientific studies...  who base their stats on infected cruise ships and health care workers since they're all exposed and they all get tested (true data)...  estimate an average mortality rate around 0.5% to date.

The issue of bad data isn't discussed enough.

I think the public health people that are leading this lockdown took things way too far.  That's my personal opinion and has been from the beginning.  

For example, in the worst case scenario, NYC deaths are estimated at 16k.  It's being revised downward to 10k.  The virus has been here since December.  This is a city of 8.6 million people crammed on top of each other.  Not to mention, it's still impossible to get a test and people are scared to anyhow since the testing centers are corona contaminated.  Why take the risk if you don't have it potentially?

0.5% of 8.6 million is 43000 people dying. Furthermore that figure would increase massively if everyone infected would not be able to get adequate treatment because the hospitals are full.

The fact that the lockdowns are working should not make us conclude that they weren't necessary in the first place.

If medical supplies aren't enough in New York (or Lombardy, Madrid, etc.) with the current measures taken, then it would be much worse without them. If infections aren't slowed down we head to a completely avoidable worse case scenario.
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Post by Myesyats Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:39 pm

@The Demon of Carthage wrote:Here's what the Tunisian government uses to patrol the streets and catch those who don't respect the confinement:

The Coronavirus Thread - Part 3 - Page 2 _111602953_tunisia_afp

I wish there was also a gun attached to it to shoot those who have no legitimate excuse to be outside.

Isnt that a little bit too much? Citizens should be advised to stay at home but severe punishment for just standing outside and totalitarian invigilation shouldnt have a place in the free world.

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Post by The Demon of Carthage Wed Apr 08, 2020 5:45 pm

But that's the problem, they are not punishing them at all. If they catch you outside, they just ask you to show to the camera your confinement form and tell them the reason why you're outside.

If you have no legitimate excuse, they just ask you to go home immediately.

Most Tunisians actually wish this government were less lenient with their approach during the virus outbreak, but ever since the revolution ended, the government has become really, really, really soft with its citizens.

This is a great approach under normal circumstances, but during a virus outbreak, the government has to be very strict for the benefit of everybody.
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Post by Nishankly Wed Apr 08, 2020 6:22 pm

My dad is being sent from the Indian Army to Kuwait to set up a Covid testing lab for 3 months leading a 15 man team.

It's similar to what we sent for Maldives.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.thehindu.com/news/national/army-team-in-maldives-to-set-up-virus-testing-lab/article31084662.ece/amp/

The briefing is tomorrow, let's see what happens.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:15 pm

https://www.axios.com/exclusive-navarro-deaths-coronavirus-memos-january-da3f08fb-dce1-4f69-89b5-ea048f8382a9.html

damn these memos were pretty spot on
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Post by CBarca Wed Apr 08, 2020 7:42 pm

@rincon wrote:
@sportsczy wrote:
@BarrileteCosmico wrote:https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/

Interesting article on the other approach, not sure we will ever be able to say which was better even after this is all set and done

The non-political scientific studies...  who base their stats on infected cruise ships and health care workers since they're all exposed and they all get tested (true data)...  estimate an average mortality rate around 0.5% to date.

The issue of bad data isn't discussed enough.

I think the public health people that are leading this lockdown took things way too far.  That's my personal opinion and has been from the beginning.  

For example, in the worst case scenario, NYC deaths are estimated at 16k.  It's being revised downward to 10k.  The virus has been here since December.  This is a city of 8.6 million people crammed on top of each other.  Not to mention, it's still impossible to get a test and people are scared to anyhow since the testing centers are corona contaminated.  Why take the risk if you don't have it potentially?

0.5% of 8.6 million is 43000 people dying. Furthermore that figure would increase massively if everyone infected would not be able to get adequate treatment because the hospitals are full.

The fact that the lockdowns are working should not make us conclude that they weren't necessary in the first place.

If medical supplies aren't enough in New York (or Lombardy, Madrid, etc.) with the current measures taken, then it would be much worse without them. If infections aren't slowed down we head to a completely avoidable worse case scenario.


Be prepared for a lot of this.

There are a LOT of bad faith actors on both sides. I mentioned earlier my annoyance with the "undercounting" vs "overcounting" issue.

It's literally a flag to show whether you're willing to use bad data to support whatever position you already made up your mind to support.

The only logical conclusion to underreporting or overreporting of deaths is that both are occurring and that as of right now it's really difficult to tell which is happening more. That might be something we can start to estimate in a couple months to a year from now.

You can tell someone is being purposefully pessimistic if they say deaths are ABSOLUTELY being undercounted. Someone is being purposefully critical of government responses if they say deaths are CERTAINLY being overcounted. Come on.

As more data comes out we're going to see a LOT of "I told you so", a LOT of criticism of government responses and policies despite the fact that everyone is and has been working with high uncertainty, unclean data, and a virus we STILL don't know a lot about. A lot of people are going to claim that this was an overreaction.

What I don't understand is that we saw what happened in Lombardy. Why is the idea of shutting New York down an "overreaction"? How is New York any different? Especially when we've seen New York struggle the way they have.

As more data comes to light, I might actually be more pissed off by the politicization of the issue than anything that's happened so far.
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Post by Babun Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:37 pm

@rincon wrote:
@sportsczy wrote:
@BarrileteCosmico wrote:https://www.nationalreview.com/2020/04/coronavirus-response-sweden-avoids-isolation-economic-ruin/

Interesting article on the other approach, not sure we will ever be able to say which was better even after this is all set and done

The non-political scientific studies...  who base their stats on infected cruise ships and health care workers since they're all exposed and they all get tested (true data)...  estimate an average mortality rate around 0.5% to date.

The issue of bad data isn't discussed enough.

I think the public health people that are leading this lockdown took things way too far.  That's my personal opinion and has been from the beginning.  

For example, in the worst case scenario, NYC deaths are estimated at 16k.  It's being revised downward to 10k.  The virus has been here since December.  This is a city of 8.6 million people crammed on top of each other.  Not to mention, it's still impossible to get a test and people are scared to anyhow since the testing centers are corona contaminated.  Why take the risk if you don't have it potentially?

0.5% of 8.6 million is 43000 people dying. Furthermore that figure would increase massively if everyone infected would not be able to get adequate treatment because the hospitals are full.

The fact that the lockdowns are working should not make us conclude that they weren't necessary in the first place.

If medical supplies aren't enough in New York (or Lombardy, Madrid, etc.) with the current measures taken, then it would be much worse without them. If infections aren't slowed down we head to a completely avoidable worse case scenario.

Not all of the people will get sick, more like 60-70% with deaths ranging  between 25800 and 30100 from the Wuhan virus alone. I agree with everything else though and will add 3 more points:
1. When all of the ICUs are occupied normal patients with cases like strokes, hearth strokes, accidents, appendicitis etc. will just die on the spot without getting a treatment or the doc has to decide: Covid-19 patient or other to occupy the unit, also known as triage.
It means AT LEAST 25800 - 30100 would die from the Wuhan virus alone. A lot more fatal outcomes would add up from the otherwise treatable cases. I'm pretty sure everyone here had at least one member of the family who suffered one of the listed conditions and got treated in time, think about it.
2. Netherlands, UK and Sweden decided to go with the immunization strategy. Netherlands and UK made a U-turn almost immediatly, Sweden is on the way there. All the other countries locked down, no one wants lockdowns, not a single person is interested in them. If all of the gouvernments follow that path there has to be some reasoning behind it.
3. We still don't know much about the sickness. Wise men say "better safe than sorry".


Last edited by Babun on Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:39 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sportsczy Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:39 pm

@rincon... 40% of New Yorkers who rent apartments failed to pay their rent on April 1.  There is a 90-day moratorium on evictions.  However, come 90 days, you will owe 4 months rent... it's not forgiven AND your credit still gets destroyed.

I feat that far more than 43k people will be in dire straits with many many many downstream mental health issues.  Not to mention the economy is destroyed and unemployment spiraling out of control.

That's what Trump was worried about...  0.5% of 350 million people is 1.75 million deaths, which is what Fauci told him would be a possible outcome.  That is horrible of course and political death in an election year.  But let's put that in perspective:
- over 650k die of heart disease in the US  every year
- over 600k people die of cancer
- respiratory diseases got about 200k
- Alzheimer's gets 120k
- Diabetes 80k+
etc.

What I'm getting at is that this lockdown has to stop immediately... and I mean come May 1.  I'm willing to take the risk of dying (and I'm a prime candidate).  You can't sacrifice society like this.

At the very least, you need to implement segmentation and protect the high-risk people while allowing the others to function.
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Post by rincon Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:44 pm

Thats a problem of the US government handling of the financial stimulus needed at this time.

Choosing to sacrifice millions of people to make up for incompetent economic policy during a crisis is crazy. You say you cant sacrifice society when referring to rent payments when you are literally proposing sacrificing society in the most literal way.

I sure prefer being broke over dying, and definitely would blame the government if those were the only options.


Last edited by rincon on Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:45 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Post by sportsczy Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:45 pm

Not criticizing the actions until now.... but going forward.  Mask, ventilator, etc. production is close to matching need if not outpacing it.  Hospital bed capacity is catching up quickly too with the military involved.

There has to be a point where you re-assess your course of action and see if it's still appropriate.

My fear was what Babun said... healthcare becoming overwhelmed. It that's sufficiently mitigated, you have to open up.
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Post by RealGunner Wed Apr 08, 2020 8:48 pm



Wimbledon better prepared than most world governments lol
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Post by Art Morte Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:21 pm

So the whole thing was an insurance scam by Wimbledon? Who knew!
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Wed Apr 08, 2020 9:21 pm

@sportsczy wrote:@rincon... 40% of New Yorkers who rent apartments failed to pay their rent on April 1.  There is a 90-day moratorium on evictions.  However, come 90 days, you will owe 4 months rent... it's not forgiven AND your credit still gets destroyed.

I feat that far more than 43k people will be in dire straits with many many many downstream mental health issues.  Not to mention the economy is destroyed and unemployment spiraling out of control.

That's what Trump was worried about...  0.5% of 350 million people is 1.75 million deaths, which is what Fauci told him would be a possible outcome.  That is horrible of course and political death in an election year.  But let's put that in perspective:
- over 650k die of heart disease in the US  every year
- over 600k people die of cancer
- respiratory diseases got about 200k
- Alzheimer's gets 120k
- Diabetes 80k+
etc.

What I'm getting at is that this lockdown has to stop immediately... and I mean come May 1.  I'm willing to take the risk of dying (and I'm a prime candidate).  You can't sacrifice society like this.

At the very least, you need to implement segmentation and protect the high-risk people while allowing the others to function.


BTW on a normal month 20% of people don't pay rent, so this is just twice as bad as normal. That 40% is worse than it sounds.

Also I'm sure there will be some government relief to address that.

If Trump was really worried about this he should've acted faster and sooner so it never got to this point.
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Post by CBarca Wed Apr 08, 2020 11:42 pm

I think there are a lot of good faith arguments to be had about reopening the economy and when it should happen.

I just can't stand the people, and the high number of them, who are going to crawl out of the woodwork talking about how bad this lockdown was and "the cure can't be worse than the disease" etc when everyone knows that multiple Lombardy's in the US would have been devastating. Devastating to the economy, to the morale, to our governmental leadership and trust in the government, devastating to the expertise of the medical field (how many doctors/nurses could have been lost). Devastating to our trust in the healthcare system to keep us alive and healthy. And much more.

And nobody is minimizing the terrible effects that have transpired because of the economy shutting down. But I don't think there was any option.

I don't like comparing # of deaths due to cancer etc either. Those are bad faith arguments. Those deaths are spread out over time and geographically in a way that doesn't overwhelm the medical system. The disease that is COVID-19 is scary. But the scary part isn't how to handle it, or its death rate (many other diseases and indeed cancer are many times more widespread per year & worse odds), it's how quickly it spreads and what it can do to the healthcare system. So I don't like people bringing in numbers that lack the proper context to be compared.

Now if individuals want to talk about models moving forward, testing capacity, PPE availability as we move forward in the US vs the economic cost of current stay-at-home policies, now that we stand where we do...those are all good discussions to have, and indeed will very shortly become the prominent discussion
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