Economic consequences of COVID-19

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Post by Vibe Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:21 pm

What can we expect when this is over?

Any global event of such kind will surely lead to a recession, as history taught us. What can we, normal working class people anticipate waiting for us in the future?
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Post by Nishankly Mon Apr 06, 2020 5:26 pm

Well I am hoping it doesn't kill my international career, I have worked in India, Paris and Singapore being below the age of 25 and now I am looking at France's greatest rescission as I graduate this April, it might send me back home doing a domestic job after so much investment.

Class of 2020 has been fucked beyond word.
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Post by Vibe Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:06 pm

I was up for my dream, hell, anyone's dream job before this. I hope the opportunity is still there after.

Highest paid job in Serbia, flight control, starting salary 3000 euros, potentially going to 5k.

It may not sound like much to you people, but in Serbia you live like a king with that kind of money. 95% of people here make 300-400 euros a month.
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Post by sportsczy Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:08 pm

A global recession is already here and a severe one. Let's hope it doesn't become a depression.

2-3 year down cycle, unfortunately.
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Post by Vibe Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:10 pm

Impressive resume Nish, especially being so young.

I have only been a nurse in my life, aside from a private businesss I started when I was 26 I think.
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Post by futbol Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:17 pm

Nurses make 5k in Serbia? How come?

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Post by Warrior Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:18 pm

@Nish: come to Canada it's the best place in the world for an indian lad

@Vibe: good luck for that dream job... wtf the average salary is 400 euros a month Shocked cost of life must be very cheap
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Post by Warrior Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:22 pm

As truck driver (what you european lads call a lorry driver i think) no need to worry about recessions, thank god. Transport remains active all the time.

For me it's the best job in the world

It helps that i make Serbia's average monthly income in 3 days Laughing
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Post by Vibe Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:25 pm

It is not actually, the cost of life in Germany for instance is cheaper aside from housing.

I've done well for myself though, despite all this. I have my own apartment, a summerhouse, bought the Audi A6 that I always wanted and I lack nothing in life.

The only thing I lack is probably nice vacations and some saved up cash. But I don't care about it that much... It will come. I always maintained a positive mentality about things in life and somehow, things work out.
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Post by Vibe Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:29 pm

@Warrior wrote:

It helps that i make Serbia's average monthly income in 3 days Laughing


Being born in Canada is living life on easy mode FFS
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Post by Warrior Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:31 pm

Absolutely

It leads me to laziness
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Post by Warrior Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:37 pm

You built a pretty decent life for yourself, probably your positive attitude was a huge help. I'm more of the cynical-passive type.

Must be said however, to own same things as you would cost me more than 1 million $
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Post by Vibe Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:43 pm

@Warrior wrote:Absolutely

It leads me to laziness


That is the main thing about it, living such a life in Serbia, and now looking back on it, I've lived such a beautiful and eventful life. Thinking about it makes me feel instantly nostalgic. There's a certain romance to it.

However I've somehow managed to to absolutely nothing in life Laughing I've lived 100% hedonistic, and everyone always wondered WTF is it about me.

I'm an anomaly, a glitch in the Matrix.
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Post by futbol Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:48 pm

I can't imagine Corona itself causing a recession. At the end of the day the flu has still caused 20k deaths in 17/18 season in Germany despite there being herd immunity + vaccine available while Corona has just only passed the 1k mark (average age of the dead: 82) in about 3 months.

The main problem I identify is that not everyone should get sick at the same time to not overload the health service capacities. But other than that it's basically just another flu.

Certain businesses like restaurants or anything else that requires gathering of people will be in trouble but there is no need to shut down everything completely. The barber can still operate with an appointment system where only 1 customer is allowed in while the barber is wearing a mask and gloves. Most office chair farters can do their jobs from home office. Cinemas were always becoming obsolete with more and more streaming networks and everyone having 100 inch home entertainment systems at home these days (15+ Euros for 90 minutes of Hollywood trash with cheap Nachos and some kiddies giggling throughout infront of you, GTFO). Travel agencies for example are in trouble for sure. But all in all it shouldn't be too bad and you can work around it most of the time. Especially big companies won't be that affected. Stock markets have already gone up almost 20 % from its lowest point. Today another 5 % bump (needless to say I invested heavily and am already reaping the rewards).

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Post by sportsczy Mon Apr 06, 2020 6:54 pm

r u being serious futbol... of course corona created a recession because borders closed and the global supply chain broke. Loss of income, unemployment and general lack of confidence in the economies around the world has caused (and will continue to cause) people to spend less = recession.

Literally all the money being spent right now by governments is a sunk cost since it's not about stimulating economies but saving companies/people from going insolvent... they'll need to spend that and then some to stimulate the economy once economies are actually running.

This is a disaster of epic proportions. There is no "going back to normal" after this. Consumer spending and demand is in the dumps.
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Post by El Gunner Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:37 pm

^^ i never knew sports was such a exaggerated poster Laughing

but if this is the fall of capitalism, i'm all for it. Even if it means the human species dying out
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Post by sportsczy Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:47 pm

It's not the fall of capitalism...  it's an economic shock.  An unusual one because it's non-financial.   So for example, the .com bubble and the financial crisis were economic downturns caused by a segment of the economy's bubble bursting.  In this case, it's an external event that caused the entire economy to stop working.  

The impact is... will people just go back to 100% doing what they used or will this shock cause them to become less optimistic and more conservative with their spending?  I think we can comfortably say the later.  To what extent...  we don't know.  But a recession is already here and the depth of the recession will depend on how quickly consumer confidence can be built back up.  Typically, it takes 2-3 years.

The big issue in the US is that companies have laid off 10 million workers in 2 weeks...  likely going to be 30 million by the end of May.  Are all those people going to automatically get re-hired?  I'm not sure unless the government pays for their wages... which they can't do indefinitely.  

The shock is just too big.

And it's not like governments are reacting so admirably that you are confident in their abilities either.
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Post by Warrior Mon Apr 06, 2020 7:50 pm

@sportsczy wrote:
The impact is... will people just go back to 100% doing what they used or will this shock cause them to become less optimistic and more conservative with their spending?  I think we can comfortably say the later.


I would say the former tbh
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Post by Vibe Mon Apr 06, 2020 8:10 pm

Initially the later, but eventually the former.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Mon Apr 06, 2020 9:58 pm

@futbol wrote:I can't imagine Corona itself causing a recession. At the end of the day the flu has still caused 20k deaths in 17/18 season in Germany despite there being herd immunity + vaccine available while Corona has just only passed the 1k mark (average age of the dead: 82) in about 3 months.

The main problem I identify is that not everyone should get sick at the same time to not overload the health service capacities. But other than that it's basically just another flu.
Amazing that we're still reading things like this in April

I will say that Germany is getting off this relatively unscathed as compared to most other Western countries, but still no excuse for the "just another flu" and "no high impact" perspective that have caused so many bad decisions.
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Post by futbol Tue Apr 07, 2020 11:11 am

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:
@futbol wrote:I can't imagine Corona itself causing a recession. At the end of the day the flu has still caused 20k deaths in 17/18 season in Germany despite there being herd immunity + vaccine available while Corona has just only passed the 1k mark (average age of the dead: 82) in about 3 months.

The main problem I identify is that not everyone should get sick at the same time to not overload the health service capacities. But other than that it's basically just another flu.
Amazing that we're still reading things like this in April

I will say that Germany is getting off this relatively unscathed as compared to most other Western countries, but still no excuse for the "just another flu" and "no high impact" perspective that have caused so many bad decisions.


But it is just another flu, except it's a new one that the human immune system is not used to and with no herd immunity/vaccine available yet. The danger of overcrowded hospitals is real right now so I'm not saying "let's just go on as usual and do nothing". But let's also not go overboard. Around 80k people die every month in Germany due to cardiovascula and respiratory illness or cancer. 1.8k average age 82 year olds dying due to Corona is nothing.

If the media bombarded us with daily news about influenza or hospital germ death tolls I wonder if people would ever go out again without masks and gloves. We are talking about 600k hospital germ infections per year in Germany, people who simply catch deadly germs in hospitals. 40k gun violence deaths in the US etc. Corona itself is nothing compared to all of that so the economy cannot collapse due to Corona, it only can if the measure go completely overboard.

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Post by BarrileteCosmico Tue Apr 07, 2020 12:21 pm

It's far more contagious than the flu and it's far deadlier than the flu. The fact that you're seeing so few deaths is a testament to Germany's ability to manage the praoctive and prevention techniques that have been recommended, but to say "it's just another flu" completely ignores this. Italy/Spain/US have/will have 1.8k deaths in 2 days, not an entire month.

You also have the wrong outlook about economic impact. Corona kills both supply (no one is working in any factories right now, anywhere) and demand (can't exactly go shopping this moment). Several industries have been hit very hard (oil, air travel, hotels, restaurants, etc) and it remains to be seen whether they can recover from this and whether laid off people will be able to get back to to work.
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Post by futbol_bill Tue Apr 07, 2020 1:14 pm

Not to mention the total loss of tourism. Small businesses have a huge task to survive. Some governments are trying to support them, but at end of day, they will have been without income for 2 or 3 months, yet still have expenses from that time frame and no way to recuperate that income. Larger businesses have same issues but likely they can absorb it. Government jobs are secure, but with governments going ridiculously into debt, that security will be severely tested in coming years. Then there is the likelihood of a snail paced recovery, which means reduced income from what they had before and many jobs not recovered.

Whether you recognize it or not, this recession is real and will be a slow and painful recovery. I never thought I would say this, but my Junior is very naive!
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Post by zigra Tue Apr 07, 2020 2:29 pm

@futbol wrote:But it is just another flu, except it's a new one that the human immune system is not used to and with no herd immunity/vaccine available yet. The danger of overcrowded hospitals is real right now so I'm not saying "let's just go on as usual and do nothing". But let's also not go overboard. Around 80k people die every month in Germany due to cardiovascula and respiratory illness or cancer. 1.8k average age 82 year olds dying due to Corona is nothing.

The total number of people who die (of ANY cause) in Germany is roughly 80k a month.

@futbol wrote:If the media bombarded us with daily news about influenza or hospital germ death tolls I wonder if people would ever go out again without masks and gloves. We are talking about 600k hospital germ infections per year in Germany, people who simply catch deadly germs in hospitals.

Yes we're talking about 600k hospital germ infections but it's not like they all die because of it. That number is 20k.
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Post by sportsczy Tue Apr 07, 2020 3:37 pm

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:It's far more contagious than the flu and it's far deadlier than the flu. The fact that you're seeing so few deaths is a testament to Germany's ability to manage the praoctive and prevention techniques that have been recommended, but to say "it's just another flu" completely ignores this. Italy/Spain/US have/will have 1.8k deaths in 2 days, not an entire month.

You also have the wrong outlook about economic impact. Corona kills both supply (no one is working in any factories right now, anywhere) and demand (can't exactly go shopping this moment). Several industries have been hit very hard (oil, air travel, hotels, restaurants, etc) and it remains to be seen whether they can recover from this and whether laid off people will be able to get back to to work.

I also think that Germany does a better job of keeping count.  In the US, because you're not going to get tested unless you have issues from covid19 requiring medical care, they approximate that only 1 out of 10 people with this infection are being diagnosed and counted.  Also, people who weren't tested for covid19 but dying of pneumonia...  are not being counted as covid19 deaths but pneumonia deaths.

I think there's a very large statistical accuracy problem going on top of everything else.
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