Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
Biden banking on southern conservatives to get him the nominee.
He needs a surge in Virginia and Texas, currently Bernie leads the polls. If Bernie wins those states, it will be bloodbath when late in the day California results come in. Cali has the highest # of delegates, and Bernie could take all of the delegates.
He needs a surge in Virginia and Texas, currently Bernie leads the polls. If Bernie wins those states, it will be bloodbath when late in the day California results come in. Cali has the highest # of delegates, and Bernie could take all of the delegates.
Blue- First Team
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
Blue wrote:Biden banking on southern conservatives to get him the nominee.
He needs a surge in Virginia and Texas, currently Bernie leads the polls. If Bernie wins those states, it will be bloodbath when late in the day California results come in. Cali has the highest # of delegates, and Bernie could take all of the delegates.
No chance Bernie takes all the cali delegates.
Also I think Texas is into play.
Either way a 1/2 Sanders/Biden rally up to that point is good enough to get us to a contested convention. He isn going to be handed the nomination by any super delegate.
Young Kaz- First Team
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
I think Texas is in play, I expect a bounce for Biden. We will see.
Currently only Bernie is polling above the 15% threshold in Cali.
Currently only Bernie is polling above the 15% threshold in Cali.
Blue- First Team
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
Blue wrote:I think Texas is in play, I expect a bounce for Biden. We will see.
Currently only Bernie is polling above the 15% threshold in Cali.
If it goes to a contested convention and they give it to Biden would you vote for him?
Young Kaz- First Team
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
Young Kaz wrote:Blue wrote:I think Texas is in play, I expect a bounce for Biden. We will see.
Currently only Bernie is polling above the 15% threshold in Cali.
If it goes to a contested convention and they give it to Biden would you vote for him?
If Biden has the popular votes and delegates, then yes. If Bernie leads those and doesn't get the nominee I will definitely not and I would have a hard time voting for another Democrat ever again.
Because at that point you have rejected democracy in favor parties elite to over rule the people choice.
Also Biden at this point is the nominee for states that will go for republicans, is he going to win any dem state?
Blue- First Team
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
Blue wrote:Young Kaz wrote:Blue wrote:I think Texas is in play, I expect a bounce for Biden. We will see.
Currently only Bernie is polling above the 15% threshold in Cali.
If it goes to a contested convention and they give it to Biden would you vote for him?
If Biden has the popular votes and delegates, then yes. If Bernie leads those and doesn't get the nominee I will definitely not and I would have a hard time voting for another Democrat ever again.
Because at that point you have rejected democracy in favor parties elite to over rule the people choice.
Also Biden at this point is the nominee for states that will go for republicans, is he going to win any dem state?
I think the general consensus is Democratic states like California are going to go Democratic regardless of who the nominee is. People want to see other states come into play...but South Carolina wont be one. I live right next to it...its a conservative stronghold.
Young Kaz- First Team
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
Tom Steyer is out.
Young Kaz- First Team
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
Looks like the decisive victory Biden needed to reset his campaign. Warren and Klobuchar probably won't make it past Super Tuesday and who knows what will happen with Pete. Biden could end up gathering all the moderate support.
Seems like we are back to the start: Biden vs Bernie
Seems like we are back to the start: Biden vs Bernie
BarrileteCosmico- Admin
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
Young Kaz wrote:Blue wrote:I think Texas is in play, I expect a bounce for Biden. We will see.
Currently only Bernie is polling above the 15% threshold in Cali.
If it goes to a contested convention and they give it to Biden would you vote for him?
Contested convention would be a disaster for Democrats, it would almost certainly upset one wing of the party depending on who gets chosen and depress turnout against Trump, expect major backlash from progressives if Bernie has the plurality but superdelegates pick someone else on the second ballot.
Pedram- Fan Favorite
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
Pedram wrote:Young Kaz wrote:Blue wrote:I think Texas is in play, I expect a bounce for Biden. We will see.
Currently only Bernie is polling above the 15% threshold in Cali.
If it goes to a contested convention and they give it to Biden would you vote for him?
Contested convention would be a disaster for Democrats, it would almost certainly upset one wing of the party depending on who gets chosen and depress turnout against Trump, expect major backlash from progressives if Bernie has the plurality but superdelegates pick someone else on the second ballot.
One wing of the party is going to be upset either way.
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
Blue wrote:Young Kaz wrote:Blue wrote:I think Texas is in play, I expect a bounce for Biden. We will see.
Currently only Bernie is polling above the 15% threshold in Cali.
If it goes to a contested convention and they give it to Biden would you vote for him?
If Biden has the popular votes and delegates, then yes. If Bernie leads those and doesn't get the nominee I will definitely not and I would have a hard time voting for another Democrat ever again.
Because at that point you have rejected democracy in favor parties elite to over rule the people choice.
Also Biden at this point is the nominee for states that will go for republicans, is he going to win any dem state?
How would you feel if come the convention Bernie has the most delegates but the progressive wing (Bernie + Warren) has less total delegates than the moderate wing (everyone else)? Would you be amenable to the argument that the Democrat voters would have rejected a progressive candidate?
BarrileteCosmico- Admin
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
I don't think the democrat leaders are stupid enough to destroy their own party. If they force Bernie out of nomination despite the majority's choice they better prepare themselves for riot. and say goodbye to presidency for next 20 years.
also it may create a 3rd party.
also it may create a 3rd party.
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
Mamad wrote:I don't think the democrat leaders are stupid enough to destroy their own party. If they force Bernie out of nomination despite the majority's choice they better prepare themselves for riot. and say goodbye to presidency for next 20 years.
also it may create a 3rd party.
riot?
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
BarrileteCosmico wrote:Blue wrote:Young Kaz wrote:
If it goes to a contested convention and they give it to Biden would you vote for him?
If Biden has the popular votes and delegates, then yes. If Bernie leads those and doesn't get the nominee I will definitely not and I would have a hard time voting for another Democrat ever again.
Because at that point you have rejected democracy in favor parties elite to over rule the people choice.
Also Biden at this point is the nominee for states that will go for republicans, is he going to win any dem state?
How would you feel if come the convention Bernie has the most delegates but the progressive wing (Bernie + Warren) has less total delegates than the moderate wing (everyone else)? Would you be amenable to the argument that the Democrat voters would have rejected a progressive candidate?
It doesn't work like that there is no lanes though. Check this out, research done by Morning Consult. Biden, Buttigeig, and Warren second choice are Sanders.
https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/
Blue- First Team
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
BarrileteCosmico wrote:Blue wrote:Young Kaz wrote:
If it goes to a contested convention and they give it to Biden would you vote for him?
If Biden has the popular votes and delegates, then yes. If Bernie leads those and doesn't get the nominee I will definitely not and I would have a hard time voting for another Democrat ever again.
Because at that point you have rejected democracy in favor parties elite to over rule the people choice.
Also Biden at this point is the nominee for states that will go for republicans, is he going to win any dem state?
How would you feel if come the convention Bernie has the most delegates but the progressive wing (Bernie + Warren) has less total delegates than the moderate wing (everyone else)? Would you be amenable to the argument that the Democrat voters would have rejected a progressive candidate?
Dividing it into progressive vs moderate seems overly simplistic. The candidates aren't that similar to each other within those categories. I don't see why a Buttigieg voter couldn't prefer Warren or Sanders over Biden, or any permutation of this.
rincon- World Class Contributor
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
People are going overboard with the "destroying the party" thing.
A contested convention would be an absolute mess, but even if the Democratic party screws over Bernie, they would survive just fine.
A contested convention would be an absolute mess, but even if the Democratic party screws over Bernie, they would survive just fine.
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
rincon wrote:BarrileteCosmico wrote:Blue wrote:Young Kaz wrote:
If it goes to a contested convention and they give it to Biden would you vote for him?
If Biden has the popular votes and delegates, then yes. If Bernie leads those and doesn't get the nominee I will definitely not and I would have a hard time voting for another Democrat ever again.
Because at that point you have rejected democracy in favor parties elite to over rule the people choice.
Also Biden at this point is the nominee for states that will go for republicans, is he going to win any dem state?
How would you feel if come the convention Bernie has the most delegates but the progressive wing (Bernie + Warren) has less total delegates than the moderate wing (everyone else)? Would you be amenable to the argument that the Democrat voters would have rejected a progressive candidate?
Dividing it into progressive vs moderate seems overly simplistic. The candidates aren't that similar to each other within those categories. I don't see why a Buttigieg voter couldn't prefer Warren or Sanders over Biden, or any permutation of this.
I mostly bring it up because I've seen this argument pop up in a few news outlets, but yeah I agree that things are not that simple in practice
Hopefully at some point they implement ranked choice voting throughout and they can get rid of this super delegate nonsense
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
Pedram wrote:
- Spoiler:
BarrileteCosmico wrote:https://www.cnn.com/2020/02/26/politics/bernie-sanders-turnout-trump-2020/index.html
I found this to be a good article, CNN and clickbait title aside
I have a really hard time getting behind the "all we need is higher turnout" story, mostly for the reasons laid out in the article:
-Turnout is fairly predictable
-Independents and non-voters are split fairly down the middle, increasing turnout by itself would have a neutral effect at most
-Democratic turnout is already expected to be high, as seen in the 2018 elections, even without a Bernie nominee, due to the anti-Trump backlash
-Nominating an equally polarizing figure on the Democratic spectrum would motivate the other side just as much as Trump motivates Democrats to show up to vote
-All elections based on the vote of the young are losers (just ask Yang or Ron Paul). Is here any evidence to hope that this time they will turn out to vote?
I can totally see why the democratic party is freaking out.
Also, just based off anecdotal evidence, I've lost track of how many times I've heard "Trump vs Bernie is my worst case scenario, I might even vote for Trump or not show up to vote" in my very liberal state.
Bernie is the only candidate who's beating Trump in swing states.
Been doing a little more reading on this and came across this good article on it:
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/25/21152538/bernie-sanders-electability-president-moderates-data
The TLDR is that these polls that say that Bernie would beat Trump by just as much as Biden or more are actually predicting that swing voters would not show for him but that youth voters would. These assumptions are suspect, as youth vote would need to jump 30% from 2016, something that we have not seen in the primaries so far. Turnout in general is still not at 2008 levels.
BarrileteCosmico- Admin
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
Pete Buttigieg drops out before super tuesday.
Looks like he wants a job under Biden.
Super tuesday just got very interesting. Need Amy to leave now.
Looks like he wants a job under Biden.
Super tuesday just got very interesting. Need Amy to leave now.
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
Best for Biden if Amy and Warren stay and split the Bernie vote in their home state
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
BarrileteCosmico wrote:Best for Biden if Amy and Warren stay and split the Bernie vote in their home state
Good point.
I think Bernie is beating Warren in MA though.
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
Wow did not expect Buttigieg to drop out right before Super Tuesday, Biden definitely offered him something big, Secretary of State maybe?
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
Buttigieg speaking tonight at 8:30.
If he endorses Biden tonight...
If he endorses Biden tonight...
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
Pete Buttigieg is OUT. All of his SuperTuesday votes will go to Sleepy Joe Biden. Great timing. This is the REAL beginning of the Dems taking Bernie out of play - NO NOMINATION, AGAIN!
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) March 1, 2020
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
What the heck does Biden stand for? I mean he has a long record supporting conservative POV tough on crimes, advocating to cut Social Security and Medicare, voted for the Iraq war.
Voting for him is the equivalent of voting for a polished republican.
Voting for him is the equivalent of voting for a polished republican.
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Re: Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?
Blue wrote:What the heck does Biden stand for? I mean he has a long record supporting conservative POV tough on crimes, advocating to cut Social Security and Medicare, voted for the Iraq war.
Voting for him is the equivalent of voting for a polished republican.
If that is true then why is Biden always a democrat, yet Sanders is only a democrat when its time to run for president?
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