Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?

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Post by Blue Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:16 am

Biden banking on southern conservatives to get him the nominee.

He needs a surge in Virginia and Texas, currently Bernie leads the polls. If Bernie wins those states, it will be bloodbath when late in the day California results come in. Cali has the highest # of delegates, and Bernie could take all of the delegates.

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Post by Young Kaz Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:24 am

Blue wrote:Biden banking on southern conservatives to get him the nominee.

He needs a surge in Virginia and Texas, currently Bernie leads the polls. If Bernie wins those states, it will be bloodbath when late in the day California results come in. Cali has the highest # of delegates, and Bernie could take all of the delegates.


No chance Bernie takes all the cali delegates.

Also I think Texas is into play.

Either way a 1/2 Sanders/Biden rally up to that point is good enough to get us to a contested convention. He isn going to be handed the nomination by any super delegate.

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Post by Blue Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:36 am

I think Texas is in play, I expect a bounce for Biden. We will see.

Currently only Bernie is polling above the 15% threshold in Cali.
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Post by Young Kaz Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:37 am

Blue wrote:I think Texas is in play, I expect a bounce for Biden. We will see.

Currently only Bernie is polling above the 15% threshold in Cali.


If it goes to a contested convention and they give it to Biden would you vote for him?

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Post by Blue Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:57 am

Young Kaz wrote:
Blue wrote:I think Texas is in play, I expect a bounce for Biden. We will see.

Currently only Bernie is polling above the 15% threshold in Cali.


If it goes to a contested convention and they give it to Biden would you vote for him?


If Biden has the popular votes and delegates, then yes. If Bernie leads those and doesn't get the nominee I will definitely not and I would have a hard time voting for another Democrat ever again.

Because at that point you have rejected democracy in favor parties elite to over rule the people choice.

Also Biden at this point is the nominee for states that will go for republicans, is he going to win any dem state?
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Post by Young Kaz Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:02 am

Blue wrote:
Young Kaz wrote:
Blue wrote:I think Texas is in play, I expect a bounce for Biden. We will see.

Currently only Bernie is polling above the 15% threshold in Cali.


If it goes to a contested convention and they give it to Biden would you vote for him?


If Biden has the popular votes and delegates, then yes. If Bernie leads those and doesn't get the nominee I will definitely not and I would have a hard time voting for another Democrat ever again.

Because at that point you have rejected democracy in favor parties elite to over rule the people choice.

Also Biden at this point is the nominee for states that will go for republicans, is he going to win any dem state?


I think the general consensus is Democratic states like California are going to go Democratic regardless of who the nominee is. People want to see other states come into play...but South Carolina wont be one. I live right next to it...its a conservative stronghold.

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Post by Young Kaz Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:20 am

Tom Steyer is out.

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Post by BarrileteCosmico Sun Mar 01, 2020 3:52 am

Looks like the decisive victory Biden needed to reset his campaign. Warren and Klobuchar probably won't make it past Super Tuesday and who knows what will happen with Pete. Biden could end up gathering all the moderate support.

Seems like we are back to the start: Biden vs Bernie
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Post by Pedram Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:08 am

Young Kaz wrote:
Blue wrote:I think Texas is in play, I expect a bounce for Biden. We will see.

Currently only Bernie is polling above the 15% threshold in Cali.


If it goes to a contested convention and they give it to Biden would you vote for him?


Contested convention would be a disaster for Democrats, it would almost certainly upset one wing of the party depending on who gets chosen and depress turnout against Trump, expect major backlash from progressives if Bernie has the plurality but superdelegates pick someone else on the second ballot.
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Post by Young Kaz Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:41 am

Pedram wrote:
Young Kaz wrote:
Blue wrote:I think Texas is in play, I expect a bounce for Biden. We will see.

Currently only Bernie is polling above the 15% threshold in Cali.


If it goes to a contested convention and they give it to Biden would you vote for him?


Contested convention would be a disaster for Democrats, it would almost certainly upset one wing of the party depending on who gets chosen and depress turnout against Trump, expect major backlash from progressives if Bernie has the plurality but superdelegates pick someone else on the second ballot.


One wing of the party is going to be upset either way.

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Post by BarrileteCosmico Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:29 pm

Blue wrote:
Young Kaz wrote:
Blue wrote:I think Texas is in play, I expect a bounce for Biden. We will see.

Currently only Bernie is polling above the 15% threshold in Cali.


If it goes to a contested convention and they give it to Biden would you vote for him?


If Biden has the popular votes and delegates, then yes. If Bernie leads those and doesn't get the nominee I will definitely not and I would have a hard time voting for another Democrat ever again.

Because at that point you have rejected democracy in favor parties elite to over rule the people choice.

Also Biden at this point is the nominee for states that will go for republicans, is he going to win any dem state?


How would you feel if come the convention Bernie has the most delegates but the progressive wing (Bernie + Warren) has less total delegates than the moderate wing (everyone else)? Would you be amenable to the argument that the Democrat voters would have rejected a progressive candidate?
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Post by Mamad Sun Mar 01, 2020 1:52 pm

I don't think the democrat leaders are stupid enough to destroy their own party. If they force Bernie out of nomination despite the majority's choice they better prepare themselves for riot. and say goodbye to presidency for next 20 years.

also it may create a 3rd party.
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Post by Young Kaz Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:14 pm

Mamad wrote:I don't think the democrat leaders are stupid enough to destroy their own party. If they force Bernie out of nomination despite the majority's choice they better prepare themselves for riot. and say goodbye to presidency for next 20 years.

also it may create a 3rd party.


riot?

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Post by Blue Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:14 pm

BarrileteCosmico wrote:
Blue wrote:
Young Kaz wrote:

If it goes to a contested convention and they give it to Biden would you vote for him?


If Biden has the popular votes and delegates, then yes. If Bernie leads those and doesn't get the nominee I will definitely not and I would have a hard time voting for another Democrat ever again.

Because at that point you have rejected democracy in favor parties elite to over rule the people choice.

Also Biden at this point is the nominee for states that will go for republicans, is he going to win any dem state?


How would you feel if come the convention Bernie has the most delegates but the progressive wing (Bernie + Warren) has less total delegates than the moderate wing (everyone else)? Would you be amenable to the argument that the Democrat voters would have rejected a progressive candidate?



It doesn't work like that there is no lanes though. Check this out, research done by Morning Consult. Biden, Buttigeig, and Warren second choice are Sanders.


https://morningconsult.com/2020-democratic-primary/

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Post by rincon Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:25 pm

BarrileteCosmico wrote:
Blue wrote:
Young Kaz wrote:

If it goes to a contested convention and they give it to Biden would you vote for him?


If Biden has the popular votes and delegates, then yes. If Bernie leads those and doesn't get the nominee I will definitely not and I would have a hard time voting for another Democrat ever again.

Because at that point you have rejected democracy in favor parties elite to over rule the people choice.

Also Biden at this point is the nominee for states that will go for republicans, is he going to win any dem state?


How would you feel if come the convention Bernie has the most delegates but the progressive wing (Bernie + Warren) has less total delegates than the moderate wing (everyone else)? Would you be amenable to the argument that the Democrat voters would have rejected a progressive candidate?

Dividing it into progressive vs moderate seems overly simplistic. The candidates aren't that similar to each other within those categories. I don't see why a Buttigieg voter couldn't prefer Warren or Sanders over Biden, or any permutation of this.
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Post by CBarca Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:42 pm

People are going overboard with the "destroying the party" thing.

A contested convention would be an absolute mess, but even if the Democratic party screws over Bernie, they would survive just fine.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Sun Mar 01, 2020 2:56 pm

rincon wrote:
BarrileteCosmico wrote:
Blue wrote:
Young Kaz wrote:

If it goes to a contested convention and they give it to Biden would you vote for him?


If Biden has the popular votes and delegates, then yes. If Bernie leads those and doesn't get the nominee I will definitely not and I would have a hard time voting for another Democrat ever again.

Because at that point you have rejected democracy in favor parties elite to over rule the people choice.

Also Biden at this point is the nominee for states that will go for republicans, is he going to win any dem state?


How would you feel if come the convention Bernie has the most delegates but the progressive wing (Bernie + Warren) has less total delegates than the moderate wing (everyone else)? Would you be amenable to the argument that the Democrat voters would have rejected a progressive candidate?

Dividing it into progressive vs moderate seems overly simplistic. The candidates aren't that similar to each other within those categories. I don't see why a Buttigieg voter couldn't prefer Warren or Sanders over Biden, or any permutation of this.


I mostly bring it up because I've seen this argument pop up in a few news outlets, but yeah I agree that things are not that simple in practice

Hopefully at some point they implement ranked choice voting throughout and they can get rid of this super delegate nonsense
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Sun Mar 01, 2020 10:13 pm

Pedram wrote:
Spoiler:


Been doing a little more reading on this and came across this good article on it:

https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2020/2/25/21152538/bernie-sanders-electability-president-moderates-data

The TLDR is that these polls that say that Bernie would beat Trump by just as much as Biden or more are actually predicting that swing voters would not show for him but that youth voters would. These assumptions are suspect, as youth vote would need to jump 30% from 2016, something that we have not seen in the primaries so far. Turnout in general is still not at 2008 levels.
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Post by Young Kaz Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:35 pm

Pete Buttigieg drops out before super tuesday.

Looks like he wants a job under Biden.

Super tuesday just got very interesting. Need Amy to leave now.

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Post by BarrileteCosmico Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:43 pm

Best for Biden if Amy and Warren stay and split the Bernie vote in their home state
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Post by Young Kaz Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:54 pm

BarrileteCosmico wrote:Best for Biden if Amy and Warren stay and split the Bernie vote in their home state


hmm hmm

Good point.

I think Bernie is beating Warren in MA though.

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Post by Pedram Sun Mar 01, 2020 11:58 pm

Wow did not expect Buttigieg to drop out right before Super Tuesday, Biden definitely offered him something big, Secretary of State maybe?
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Post by Young Kaz Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:05 am

Buttigieg speaking tonight at 8:30.

If he endorses Biden tonight... Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked Shocked

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Post by Pedram Mon Mar 02, 2020 12:21 am

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Post by Blue Mon Mar 02, 2020 1:14 am

What the heck does Biden stand for? I mean he has a long record supporting conservative POV tough on crimes, advocating to cut Social Security and Medicare, voted for the Iraq war.

Voting for him is the equivalent of voting for a polished republican.
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Post by Young Kaz Mon Mar 02, 2020 2:36 am

Blue wrote:What the heck does Biden stand for? I mean he has a long record supporting conservative POV tough on crimes, advocating to cut Social Security and Medicare, voted for the Iraq war.

Voting for him is the equivalent of voting for a polished republican.


If that is true then why is Biden always a democrat, yet Sanders is only a democrat when its time to run for president?

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