The Coronavirus Thread - Part 1

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Post by Hapless_Hans on Thu Mar 12, 2020 5:49 pm

@Robespierre wrote:Drosten has talked about peak around June-August ....Referred to Germany or to the Europe ?


not sure, I assume Germany. In any case Germany lags behind Italy in the curve

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Post by Babun on Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:41 pm

@Robespierre wrote:Drosten has talked about peak around June-August ....Referred to Germany or to the Europe ?

The info is outdated (Drosten meant the world). Back then, Drosten assumed the Wuhan virus spread would weaken during summer for us to make preparations for the fall/winter 2020/2021. As you saw in the link above, the virus can survive up to 3 days outside and has got a R0=3 every seven days.
There are two strategies right now discussed among the German virlogists:

1. Prolonged war (Drosten)
2. Blitzkrieg (Kekule)

1. Drosten regards the infection of the majourity of the population as inevitable right now. His proposition is to lock out the risk group of 65 upwards until enough people are immunized  (60-70% of the population). Then, the acquired herd immunity would lessen the RO factor of the Wuhan virus. It will be like a common cold. For the health care system to cope, he wants the gouvernment to reduce social life to a point so the 60% are stretched within 2-3 years. Due to lack of immunity, he expects the RO to fall in summer from 3 to 2.5 which doesn't make much of a difference.

2. Kekule says one can achieve a total lockdown for 1-2 months in all of the pandemic regions to eradicate the virus before it gets a foothold as a seasonal sickness. His point is China and Hongkong show with a total lockdown with no people on the streets, one can reduce the RO of the virus below 1 which would mean it will disappear due to no hosts available anymore. He also puts emphasis on mutation rates in viruses. The mutation rate doesn't depend on time but by the amount of infections. Novel coronavirus is able to infect millions of people more than influenza, for there is no immunity in the population. The amount of infected would equal 10-20 seasons of influenza which brings the danger of dangerous mutations and manifistation as a seasonal sickness like flu.

Robespierre and Sportsczy, what are the strategies proposed in Italy, France or USA?


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Post by Unique on Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:44 pm

I think we now know how mankind will end. It will be a disease that ends us.

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Post by Freeza on Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:47 pm

@Unique wrote:I think we now know how mankind will end. It will be a disease that ends us.


Greed is a disease alright

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Post by Jay29 on Thu Mar 12, 2020 6:48 pm

The UK's response:

- Staying at home for seven days if you have, however mild, a new continuous cough or higher temperature
- Advise all those over-70s not to go on cruises
- Advise against international school trips

That's it for now.

Government here has decided against more extreme measures right now as they believe they can still control the transmission and keep cases low enough for the NHS to manage.

The UK's chief medical officer: "If you move too early, people get fatigued. This is a long haul. The virus seems to have its maximum transmission period around the time the first symptoms show and for two or three days after, then it declines, so by seven days, the majority are not infectious and fine to go into society. The evidence would appear to [show] some people with mild symptoms can spread this to a lot of people."

Also said there's no evidence yet for closing schools or postponing major sporting events.

Johnson said they had been "guided by science" and believes the danger of mass gatherings isn't spreading the disease, but the strain it can place on public services.

This all seems... underwhelming, I guess? I understand the impact lockdowns and such can have on society and the economy but at the same time allowing big events to continue seems counterproductive.

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Post by Nishankly on Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:03 pm

For France only a couple of departments are in Stage 3. Ligue 1 is being play behind closed door.

Macron is speaking in 1 hour, that will us an idea what the future lies here.
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Post by Myesyats on Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:19 pm

@Unique wrote:I think we now know how mankind will end. It will be a disease that ends us.
Nah coronavirus could kill 50 million people and it'd still be sooo far from the end of humanity

Black death reduced the population by 100 million when total population was 470mil

At 7 billion what should happen for mankind to end?
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Post by Freeza on Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:25 pm

@Myesyats wrote:
@Unique wrote:I think we now know how mankind will end. It will be a disease that ends us.
Nah coronavirus could kill 50 million people and it'd still be sooo far from the end of humanity

Black death reduced the population by 100 million when total population was 470mil

At 7 billion what should happen for mankind to end?


No breathable air or land

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Post by Jay29 on Thu Mar 12, 2020 7:43 pm

Meanwhile, in Taiwan:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689

Only one reported death from the virus.

They've been the most thorough and proactive nation and seem to be benefiting.

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Post by Nishankly on Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:16 pm

@Nishankly wrote:For France only a couple of departments are in Stage 3. Ligue 1 is being play behind closed door.

Macron is speaking in 1 hour, that will us an idea what the future lies here.


All Daycare centers, Schools and Universities closed starting Monday.

I'm going to stuck in Uni forever now.
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Post by Unique on Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:16 pm

@Myesyats wrote:
@Unique wrote:I think we now know how mankind will end. It will be a disease that ends us.
Nah coronavirus could kill 50 million people and it'd still be sooo far from the end of humanity

Black death reduced the population by 100 million when total population was 470mil

At 7 billion what should happen for mankind to end?
I'm not talking about Corona virus I'm talking about if a real bad one comes along. We have seen with this we are pretty shit at dealing with a outbreak.

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Post by Nishankly on Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:16 pm



rofl
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Post by The Demon of Carthage on Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:19 pm

Savage Laughing

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Post by Robespierre on Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:41 pm

Shopping at the supermarket is  a crucial step in this dystopian story that   we will have the duty to narrate in our diaries a day
around 1 hour ago I've  faced something new for the first time, which will become a habitual vision over time: I was literally the only one without a mask to the face inside the supermarkets.
And I went in two different markets (  the pocket coffees were finished in that first one , I would advise Italian Prime Minister G.Conte not to call press conferences  at night, it could be a good start)
The masks I've said. The salesgirls ok, normal, but it was same for each customer there, women, men, boys, girls, children etc
I did not have it ,   I still feel reluctant towards this initiation rite. Anyway had  an Inter scarf ( it covers up when I drive scooter )so at least I've  found a way to cover my mouth.
You know, people will look you  bad at you otherwise.
A contour that I believed it belonged  to a remote world for me , when I listened about extreme  smog in  Thailand, India, China, ... it is now part of us.
Days pass slowly, clock  marks gray hours, we are clinging to data that comfort us in vain, but the truth is that we are lost in a timeless oblivion.


Last edited by Robespierre on Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:48 pm; edited 7 times in total
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Post by Warrior on Thu Mar 12, 2020 8:42 pm

@Unique wrote:
@Myesyats wrote:
@Unique wrote:I think we now know how mankind will end. It will be a disease that ends us.
Nah coronavirus could kill 50 million people and it'd still be sooo far from the end of humanity

Black death reduced the population by 100 million when total population was 470mil

At 7 billion what should happen for mankind to end?
I'm not talking about Corona virus I'm talking about if a real bad one comes along. We have seen with this we are pretty shit at dealing with a outbreak.


We will learn from this one

Everything is being cancelled, then reported in the medias one by one, this make it seem like we are living the apocalypse. And the panic has settled for good thanks to that. In my city you cannot buy rolls of toilet paper anymore, it's out of stock Laughing zero logic behind that
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Post by rincon on Thu Mar 12, 2020 9:13 pm

@Robespierre I dont know what you do for a living but you should be a poet Proud
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Post by CBarca on Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:14 pm

@Unique wrote:Some reports saying anyone over 60 is in trouble then 65yo Tom hanks says him and his wife have it and he felt a bit tired and had the chills. hmm


It doesn't affect everyone equally. Particularly those who are 60 (it's most severe at 70+ and especially 80+).

Tom Hanks is also a global icon who is well aware that freaking the fuck out and telling the world he can barely breathe is not a good thing to do, even if that were true.

I'm not saying that's the case. I'm just saying his post is probably not what I'd look at for accurate info on the coronavirus

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Post by CBarca on Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:16 pm

I think I'm gonna head to the store tonight (late at night) and do some shopping.

Might as well head out and get some stuff while my chances of catching the virus are extremely low

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Post by Nishankly on Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:22 pm

My University said everything will be remote and us International students can head home if it feels safer. I don't know what to do, if I go back I will lose the possibility of extending my global profile (3 countries worked in by now) that I have worked years to achieve and if I stay I will probably struggle to find a job since the markets are done and companies aren't working the same way anymore (So I sit and waste nearly 9-10 months doing nothing but searching for a job) and I stand in the middle of the outbreak.
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Post by Babun on Thu Mar 12, 2020 11:33 pm

@Robespierre
Sadly, we're getting there, too. Stay strong!

Interesting paper on Wuhan virus spread:
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/03/study-covid-19-may-spread-several-different-ways

They didn't know Wuhan virus can survive up to 3 days outside when they were conducting their research.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico on Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:29 am

Companies in the US are leading the way, rather than the government. I know of a lot of companies that are implementing WFH policies until the end of march, hopefully mine follows through (right now I have to go back to the office on Monday)

Unfortunately this has a bad effect on part timers and the gig economy. A friend is a dental hygienist and her hours got slashed by over half as her dentist is located next to a lot of (now depopulated) offices.

Here in MA there are still not enough tests. People go in asking for them and they get told they can't have it.

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Post by Robespierre on Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:37 am

Rincon and Babun Proud

do you remember what I've reported  about Macron  just yesterday Macron ? He gave an insane message to the nation ,  the  coronavirus 'd not have changed French habits, concerts , parties, everything  must go on

Exactly today , he makes a total volt-face
He announces that France 'll close school and universities for two weeks and he says a grave messagge . This


As Italian  ,when I look at abroad  I feel as Jim Carrey in the Truman Show, when he's finally realized what it's going to happen in the world around him.

Abroad seems Italy in two weeks :
the initial denial of the virus , the comparison with the flu, the various nuances of "starting over", the controversy  about the tampons, you understand it's serious so closing school and universities for 2 weeks , you understand it's not enough and you'll close also cities, you understand it's not enough and you 'll close also bar and pubs...
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Post by Nishankly on Fri Mar 13, 2020 12:55 am

My family is panicking, saying I won't be able to come back at all once the virus spreads lol


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Post by CBarca on Fri Mar 13, 2020 4:57 am

Ohio, Maryland, New Mexico, Washington, Kentucky, Georgia and Michigan have all canceled school K-12. We had discussion today with admin about potentially moving classes online...but this is crazy.

I feel like I need to get ready for the call as soon as tomorrow. Maybe Monday. But who knows. I've just figured that there was as good or better chance of it not happening than it actually happening.

I'm happy we're taking action but it seems surreal and for it to massively change my day to day life like this is something I've had the good fortune to avoid until now. Looks like we're all in this together lads.

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Post by Warrior on Fri Mar 13, 2020 5:44 am

Maybe someone could create a more positive thread about the global quarantine ?

Like what to do to pass the time
Some unexpected positive effects
Good news that will eventually come out

Because this thread is quite depressive, yet very important. But i don't want to follow the stats & numbers, but still willing to talk about "life under coronavirus", it helps me get through it

The whole reaction affects my morale not my fears, i feel childish for it, sports is more important in my life than i thought
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Post by Kaladin on Fri Mar 13, 2020 9:00 am

Update on Doha:

-Confirmed cases is 200+ still, no deaths
-Closed cinemas, parks, public places, etc
-40% of employers are urging their employees to work from home
-Travel ban on many many countries, the rumors says there will be a country wide lockdown by next week.
-Ministry has recommended people pray at home and not at mosques, they've advised many mosques to close down and regular cleaning between prayer hours, additionally, you cannot stay at a mosque more than 15 mins.

As for me, i've already paid for a wedding hall for June, and unfortunately it falls under the category of the second point above. Not sure what im gonna do, if i can recoup the deposit i've made, previously i was thinking this will blow over in a month or 2, but it seems that isn't the case.

Just now also, the ministry says they might put a travel ban on US+UK+Egypt due to uncertainty with regards to their public health situation @Jay @RG

I really hope this shit is over soon, can't have come at a more inconvenient time

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