The Coronavirus Thread - Part 1

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Post by Babun on Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:08 pm

A "leaked" document from US of A suggest 96 million Americans will get sick and 480000 will die. They expect less than 30% of the population to get sick (330 millions in total) with a mortality rate of 0.5%.
All virologs in Germany and even Merkel herself expect at least 60% infection in the population until herd immunity is reached. The lowest estimate of the Covid-19 fatality is 1% as of now. Let's apply the numbers to the US of A population of 330m:
330 * 0.6 * 0.01 = 1.96 million deaths
Who in their right mind calculates a plan with the best case scenario in mind?
Worst case ( 70% infection with upper bound of 3.4%):
330 * 0.7 * 0.034 = 7.854 million deaths
if everything gets out of control like in Wuhan. Unfortunately, in case of US of A, the later is a real possiblity due to their unprepared health system.

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Post by Nishankly on Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:11 pm

@Babun wrote:A "leaked" document from US of A suggest 96 million Americans will get sick and 480000 will die. They expect less than 30% of the population to get sick (330 millions in total) with a mortality rate of 0.5%.
All virologs in Germany and even Merkel herself expect at least 60% infection in the population until herd immunity is reached. The lowest estimate of the Covid-19 fatality is 1% as of now. Let's apply the numbers to the US of A population of 330m:
330 * 0.6 * 0.01 = 1.96 million deaths
Who in their right mind calculates a plan with the best case scenario in mind? Very Happy
Worst case ( 70% infection with upper bound of 3.4%):
330 * 0.7 * 0.034 = 7.854 million deaths
if everything gets out of control like in Wuhan. Unfortunately, in case of US of A, the later is a real possiblity due to their unprepared health system.


I think you are overestimating and this is coming from me who has never put the virus down. This isn't the swine flu where it an epidemic for most causes. This is a pandemic and countries are fighting against it within 2 weeks of a breakout unlike before.

Lets not forget Italy had 3.8 million cases for Swine flu and France has about 2 million.
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Post by sportsczy on Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:16 pm

Thing with the US is that, if there's a true crisis, people come together, differences are set aside, institutions begin to cooperate with each other... and it becomes a focused efficient machine.

It's not that the health system can't handle something like this. It's the government that's isn't capable of administering (because there's politicization) right now. Once politics goes out the window, things will suddenly change.

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Post by Babun on Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:38 pm

France, Germany and Italy are capable of cooperating as well. They still expect 60% total infection at least. Their aim is to stretch the timeline as much as possible to find a cure inbetween and to relieve pressure from the health system. US of A won't magicaly be better off than us, if anything, the start of the pandemy was missed due to Trumpolitics. Chances are high the health system will be overwhelmed before the politics goes out of the window.

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Post by sportsczy on Tue Mar 10, 2020 10:46 pm

Resources babs... resources.  The US has a lot of research resources, military resources, etc. that can be repurposed for this.  Other countries just can't match the potential resources the US could aim at a true crisis.  It's exponential in terms of order of magnitude compared to other countries.  Combine that with technology and intellectual capital... That's the difference.

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Post by BarrileteCosmico on Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:06 am

Wonder if there's a way to quantify the effect coronavirus has on global warming:
-People are driving less
-Chinese factories are producing much less
-Flight demand is way down
-There are already major air-quality improvements in several cities

Surely this is a plus in the fight against global warming?

Silver linings

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Post by Freeza on Wed Mar 11, 2020 2:16 am

Contagion getting its due as a great movie is also a silver lining

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Post by CBarca on Wed Mar 11, 2020 3:34 am

@Freeza wrote:Contagion getting its due as a great movie is also a silver lining


I took a class while I was in the UK on tropical diseases and we watched it. Thought it wasn't so bad. Decent film. Should probably watch again

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Post by Jay29 on Wed Mar 11, 2020 7:15 am

City vs Arsenal postponed tonight due to Arsenal players and staff coming into contact with Olympiacos owener Evangelos Marinakis, who recently declared he had Covid-19.

Arsenal say none of their staff have displayed any symptoms but will be following government guidelines and self-isolating.

What's concerning about this decision is that Arsenal intend to return to training on Friday, as it will be 14 days since the Olympiacos game. However, they've played Portsmouth and West Ham since then, so they clearly haven't been isolating for the whole period (which they wouldn't have done, because they only found out recently Marinakis had the virus). This means the infection might have spread during those games, as well.

While it looks like the Arsenal staff are going to be fine, I can see this kick-starting more postponements and possibly suspension of football in the UK.

Wolves are travelling to Olympiacos on Thursday and while Marinakis won't be in attendance, there may be other officials there he came into contact with. The game is already being played without away fans.

At this rate, I struggle to see how the Euros and Olympics can go ahead, either. The Euros being pan-European would be a nightmare with all those fans travelling around.

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Post by Vibe on Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:24 am

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:Wonder if there's a way to quantify the effect coronavirus has on global warming:
-People are driving less
-Chinese factories are producing much less
-Flight demand is way down
-There are already major air-quality improvements in several cities

Surely this is a plus in the fight against global warming?

Silver linings


I read somewhere that thanks to this, if Coronavirus doesn't get more lethal, it will save more lives than it will take.
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Post by Vibe on Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:30 am

@rincon wrote:Been sick for a week. Its turned to difficulty breathing, chest pain, sore throat, headache, was in Italy in february.

Called the local hospital in Brussels. Put me through to a doctor, in a very quick dismissive way asked me where in italy I had come from, said Rome, she replied "rome is not a dangerous zone"... Ok. Told me to call my GP, told her I dont have one since I have never been sick in belgium, "find one near you"

Called and left a voicemail to a GP, no reply.

What a response by the Belgian health system. No one has told me, a person arriving from Italy exhibiting symptoms, to stay home and avoid contact with others.

If I was less mindful I wouldn't care and just continue my life as normal, infecting everyone around in the case that it is coronavirus


WTF

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Post by iftikhar on Wed Mar 11, 2020 8:33 am

Can anyone tell why China seemed to have contained the virus within the Wuhan region but it seem to be spreading in European countries???
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Post by Warrior on Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:01 am

Rincon said he has minor symptoms, so it seemed to me like a good ol flu, but on a second read, this is somewhat concerning. All of a sudden having struggles to breathe at 29 years old is not normal. If this keeps going for about a week then disappears it was probably coronavirus ?

Belgium health system are idiots to dismiss his case because "Rome is not dangerous"
At first the problem was only the Wuhan region. Then if you visited China, it was sketchy. Then if you visited Iran or Egypt, it was also sketchy. And now the north of Italy but also South Korea, then California. Quite a tunnel vision to not take care of someone who manifest symptoms of the virus everyone is panicking about and he just wants to get checked.
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Post by Jay29 on Wed Mar 11, 2020 9:23 am

@iftikhar wrote:Can anyone tell why China seemed to have contained the virus within the Wuhan region but it seem to be spreading in European countries???

China locked down Wuhan quickly to slow the virus' spread, but before then people travelled to Europe.

Europe were slow to respond and, unlike Taiwan or Singapore, weren't as stringent in their testing. In the UK at least, I can say that most people saw it as a distant thing only affecting Asia and didn't consider the possibility of it spreading further than that

Most governments didn't start acting until the virus was in their country and had spread. Even now, some countries aren't taking it seriously enough.

We've got 135 Brits coming home from a cruise ship that had an outbreak, but instead of being quarantined, they're being told to self-isolate. The thing with self-isolation is that it's not enforceable; people can and will come into contact with others, even if only accidentally.

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Post by Babun on Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:08 am

@sportsczy wrote:Resources babs... resources.  The US has a lot of research resources, military resources, etc. that can be repurposed for this.  Other countries just can't match the potential resources the US could aim at a true crisis.  It's exponential in terms of order of magnitude compared to other countries.  Combine that with technology and intellectual capital...  That's the difference.

One can throw shitloads of money and people at the problem, the vaccine will still take at least 1 year and half to develop if there will be one. In the long term, one can organize shitloads of face masks, respiratory equipment etc. that will not be the problem within 2-3 months. The problem will be to organize and find enough medical personnel to care for the unbelievable amount of sick people. There isn't enough in the USA per capita. I assume a lot of retired medical workers will be called upon again, they are in the risk group but whatever. Germany plans the same. The second problem would be idiots with guns and criminals. The USA would have to mobilize its army within the civil districts to maintain order. I expect lots of crime, plundering, disorder and disobedience with quarantaine orders. So summary: medical staff and guns will make it harder for the US of A.

@Update:
The disease attacks the throat. If the immune system is compromised it will spread to the bronchia and then to the lungs. From that point on it is a race against time, the virus is destroying the lungs while the body is trying to build immunity. Sometimes, bacteria knows as pneumococcus which usualy reside in the upper throat area uses the opportunity to cause pneumania but that one is treatable with antibiotics. In either case, there will be lasting damage to the lungs.

Summary: as long as confined in the throat, Covid-19 is like a common cold. Most people develop immunity at that point, the sickness is pushed back then eradicated.

Young people get complications in two types of situations:
1. Their immune system overreacts and causes excessive damage to the throat which accelerates Covid-19s spread to the lungs. They need help but they can be saved because they usualy develop immunity faster.
2. People who inhale Covid-19 droplets deep into the lungs. The infection then starts in the lungs instead of the throat. Most of the time, the lungs are destroyed faster than the patient can build immunity. Most known cases of this type happened to medical workers who were in a very close proximity to the patients. One has to literaly sneeze near the other people to cause the direct infection in the lungs. Elevators are dangerous places for that reason.

Source: My brother was briefed today by his superior. He works in a hospital in Hamburg.

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Post by Hapless_Hans on Wed Mar 11, 2020 10:56 am

@M99 wrote:@rincon really sorry to hear what you're going through. Maybe you can try again and lie? Say you were in the Lombardy region or hell even Wuhan if thats whats needed.
@RealGunner wrote:Yea M99 is right. Maybe you can twist some parts of your stories saying there were a lot of people from Lombardy in rome when you were returnign

honestly it's shocking to me that we even have to come up with these ideas.
He was in Italy, and these are the exact symptoms that ring the alarm bells (not saying it is of course). How can a response from any contacted doctor be anything other than, 'thanks for calling, don't panic, but go there and there and do that and that', to get a test and minimize the risk of potentially infecting others until the test is done.
WTF.
Again, get well soon @rincon and your response has been absolutely correct

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Post by Hapless_Hans on Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:04 am

@Warrior wrote:Rincon said he has minor symptoms, so it seemed to me like a good ol flu, but on a second read, this is somewhat concerning. All of a sudden having struggles to breathe at 29 years old is not normal. If this keeps going for about a week then disappears it was probably coronavirus ?

Belgium health system are idiots to dismiss his case because "Rome is not dangerous"
At first the problem was only the Wuhan region. Then if you visited China, it was sketchy. Then if you visited Iran or Egypt, it was also sketchy. And now the north of Italy but also South Korea, then California. Quite a tunnel vision to not take care of someone who manifest symptoms of the virus everyone is panicking about and he just wants to get checked.


as it's been said, 4 out of 5 people with Covid have no, next to no, or only 'minor symptoms' (or put differently, the majority of those with the virus don't exhibit Covid, not sure what's the proper way of describing it)
@rincon , as a young and healthy person in all likelihood fall into those 80 percent if infected, and the symptoms he described to us are exactly that, minor symptoms (though trouble breathing is not really minor?).

So in any case, he needs to get tested because it's not about us younger people but about the people we can infect who might have worse chances to not be affected badly.
And it's absolutely reckless that the Belgian health system isn't strongly and eagerly assisting him in getting tested.

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Post by BarrileteCosmico on Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:07 am

@Babun wrote:@Update:
The disease attacks the throat. If the immune system is compromised it will spread to the bronchia and then to the lungs. From that point on it is a race against time, the virus is destroying the lungs while the body is trying to build immunity. Sometimes, bacteria knows as pneumococcus which usualy reside in the upper throat area uses the opportunity to cause pneumania but that one is treatable with antibiotics. In either case, there will be lasting damage to the lungs.

Summary: as long as confined in the throat, Covid-19 is like a common cold. Most people develop immunity at that point, the sickness is pushed back then eradicated.

Young people get complications in two types of situations:
1. Their immune system overreacts and causes excessive damage to the throat which accelerates Covid-19s spread to the lungs. They need help but they can be saved because they usualy develop immunity faster.
2. People who inhale Covid-19 droplets deep into the lungs. The infection then starts in the lungs instead of the throat. Most of the time, the lungs are destroyed faster than the patient can build immunity. Most known cases of this type happened to medical workers who were  in a very close proximity to the patients. One has to literaly sneeze near the other people to cause the direct infection in the lungs. Elevators are dangerous places for that reason.

Source: My brother was briefed today by his superior. He works in a hospital in Hamburg.


Curious if you know what the recommended treatment is? Just typical flu treatment (ie pop a few ibuprophens every few hours and hope your body fights it out)?

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Post by Myesyats on Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:14 am

"Poland closes all schools, universities, museums, cinemas and other cultural facilities." Also most govt facilites and mass events

I'm glad they're acting quick even even with 'only' 25 cases confirmed.

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Post by Babun on Wed Mar 11, 2020 11:22 am

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:
@Babun wrote:@Update:
The disease attacks the throat. If the immune system is compromised it will spread to the bronchia and then to the lungs. From that point on it is a race against time, the virus is destroying the lungs while the body is trying to build immunity. Sometimes, bacteria knows as pneumococcus which usualy reside in the upper throat area uses the opportunity to cause pneumania but that one is treatable with antibiotics. In either case, there will be lasting damage to the lungs.

Summary: as long as confined in the throat, Covid-19 is like a common cold. Most people develop immunity at that point, the sickness is pushed back then eradicated.

Young people get complications in two types of situations:
1. Their immune system overreacts and causes excessive damage to the throat which accelerates Covid-19s spread to the lungs. They need help but they can be saved because they usualy develop immunity faster.
2. People who inhale Covid-19 droplets deep into the lungs. The infection then starts in the lungs instead of the throat. Most of the time, the lungs are destroyed faster than the patient can build immunity. Most known cases of this type happened to medical workers who were  in a very close proximity to the patients. One has to literaly sneeze near the other people to cause the direct infection in the lungs. Elevators are dangerous places for that reason.

Source: My brother was briefed today by his superior. He works in a hospital in Hamburg.


Curious if you know what the recommended treatment is? Just typical flu treatment (ie pop a few ibuprophens every few hours and hope your body fights it out)?

Just sit home and relax Very Happy ( yeah, the flu treatment works here, too). As soon as you get fever AND respiratory problems => reached bronchia one has to seek a doctor.
Technical advice to the medics was to lay the patient belly down. Apparently, the Italian colleagues gained some time by doing that. Also, patients who are cured from the pneumania, still have the virus in their lungs for up to two weeks. One week long at max, they still can infect other people so they have to be kept in quarantaine.

Seriously, the evidence is piling up the virus is manmade. There is no freaking difference to SARS when directly inhaled into the lungs. Covid-19 looks like a modified SARS with the focus on widespread transmission. Unlike SARS, Covid-19 doesn't have to be inhaled into the lungs, the nose is the starting point -> throat -> bronchia -> lungs, makes it 100-1000 more infectious. No wonder, the sickness has been under the rader in China and Italy for so long: the symptoms ressemble flu with a pneumonia as complication. The only difference was antibiotics didn't work, they were baffled but thought just some multiresistent strain of pneumococcus.

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Post by Robespierre on Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:25 pm

First Bundesliga player.

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Post by rincon on Wed Mar 11, 2020 12:27 pm

Lets not feed conspirscy theories. There is absolutely no evidence that the virus is manmade.
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Post by Zagadka on Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:09 pm

Hope you're fine and feeling better @Rincon

In other news, starting tomorrow all schools, universities, museums and cinemas are closed in Poland for minimum of 2 weeks.

That's after 25 cases in the country since last week. Aggressive measures, but hopefully will work.
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Post by Myesyats on Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:36 pm

@Zagadka wrote:Hope you're fine and feeling better @Rincon

In other news, starting tomorrow all schools, universities, museums and cinemas are closed in Poland for minimum of 2 weeks.

That's after 25 cases in the country since last week. Aggressive measures, but hopefully will work.

Yep, the health minister is right. We cant make the same mistakes as Italy. We dont nearly get as much tourists but extreme measures are needed quickly.

27 cases confirmed btw

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Post by Babun on Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:43 pm

@rincon wrote:Lets not feed conspirscy theories. There is absolutely no evidence that the virus is manmade.

Covid-19 alias Wuhan Virus = SARS with different mutations (lung infection):
1. Develop a receptor to infect the throat cells
2. Develop a receptor to infect bronchia cells as well
3. Still possess the ACE2 receptor to dock onto lung cells without any impairment from the mutations in 1. and 2. From then on it is the SARS train. Absolutely no difference in damage or symptoms when Covid-19 reaches the lungs.
4. Develop the ability to not show any symptoms while still being highly contagious
5. Infect pets like dogs and cats

Virae are highly specialized organisms, they have got special protein receptors to dock and invade cells. Virae naturaly mutate but getting this many mutations at the same time adapted for transmission in human hosts while still maintaining all of the original properties is highly unlikely for a novel virus. Usualy, it has to adapt to the new host like SARS tried to do 20 something years ago when it jumped from animal to human host.

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Post by iftikhar on Wed Mar 11, 2020 1:49 pm

@rincon, it will sound funny, but I'm not joking

Walk into your nearest hospital and Yell "I have Corona Virus".

Seriously mate, it's obvious that most of the governments/countries aren't taking it seriously.
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