Who will be the Democrats' presidential candidate against Trump?

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Post by CBarca on Tue Feb 04, 2020 8:51 pm

@rincon wrote:A good way to prevent these issues is to vote like a civilised country. Walk into a voting center, close yourself in a private booth, and make your vote. Simple, secret, effective. This whole thing with the caucuses and having to make public votes and argue with your neighbors is insane.


Yeah and it's like this for much of the country. The fact that it's a caucus style for Iowa, which is always first (which is also stupid), makes it doubly worse.

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Post by Hapless_Hans on Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:24 pm

Jesus fucking Christ what a shit show


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Post by Freeza on Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:26 pm

They really manufactured a whole mess like this to keep the media away from reporting on Biden's failure.

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Post by Young Kaz on Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:31 pm

Pete Buttigieg voters are Biden voters.
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Post by McLewis on Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:45 pm

Yeah it looks like Biden voters bolted for Buttigieg's camp. Interesting, but not surprising.
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Post by Freeza on Tue Feb 04, 2020 10:58 pm

@McLewis wrote:Yeah it looks like Biden voters bolted for Buttigieg's camp. Interesting, but not surprising.


Understandable. Both terrible picks, but at least one is still coherent.

Biden will continue to bleed votes and is the only candidate I think Trump can beat

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Post by rincon on Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:08 pm

Why is Pete a prick? I don't know that much about him.

What I have heard of him seems sensible enough.
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Post by Blue on Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:09 pm

<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Check out MSNBC try to make sense of how Bernie wins both the first and second rounds of voting yet is somehow supposedly trailing in delegates 🤔<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BernieWon?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BernieWon</a> <a href="https://t.co/WLk8sv56x7">pic.twitter.com/WLk8sv56x7</a></p>— Eric Blanc (@_ericblanc) <a href="https://twitter.com/_ericblanc/status/1224822469044752385?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">February 4, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

The faq is this

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Post by Freeza on Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:12 pm

@Blue wrote:

The faq is this

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Post by Freeza on Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:17 pm

Some kind of electoral college again it seems. Good to see big pieces of land getting their due.

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Post by BarrileteCosmico on Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:21 pm

@Freeza wrote:
@McLewis wrote:Yeah it looks like Biden voters bolted for Buttigieg's camp. Interesting, but not surprising.


Understandable. Both terrible picks, but at least one is still coherent.

Biden will continue to bleed votes and is the only candidate I think Trump can beat

lol you're really out of touch with the US if you think Trump will only win against Biden

Trump is the mega favorite for the election regardless of who he is up against

3% unemployment, low inflation, real wages rising for the first time in forever, a loyal base that will stand by him regardless of whatever he does and will definitely turn in to vote

meanwhile the dems can't put together a decent candidate between 21 picks

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Post by BarrileteCosmico on Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:27 pm

@rincon wrote:Why is Pete a prick? I don't know that much about him.

What I have heard of him seems sensible enough.
he talks a good game, but he's a checklist candidate (has done everything a future presidential should do with the clear goal of running for president one day: joining the military, attending an ivy league, working a high roller job in consulting/finance/etc, being the mayor of a small city, etc). This causes him to come off as fake to many people, and even as a 'psycho' to others.

But yeah when he talks it's hard to disagree with him on anything. Very coherent and doesn't have much of a file to track him down on.

The main thing people criticize him for is his consultant past and taking money from billionaires, which has been a lot of past presidents.

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Post by Young Kaz on Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:29 pm

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:
@Freeza wrote:
@McLewis wrote:Yeah it looks like Biden voters bolted for Buttigieg's camp. Interesting, but not surprising.


Understandable. Both terrible picks, but at least one is still coherent.

Biden will continue to bleed votes and is the only candidate I think Trump can beat

lol you're really out of touch with the US if you think Trump will only win against Biden

Trump is the mega favorite for the election regardless of who he is up against

3% unemployment, low inflation, real wages rising for the first time in forever, a loyal base that will stand by him regardless of whatever he does and will definitely turn in to vote

meanwhile the dems can't put together a decent candidate between 21 picks


Careful now. You arent insinuating that Europeans dont know more about our country than we do are you?

You'll be called an elitist and closet republican like I was soon. Laughing
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Post by Freeza on Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:40 pm

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:
@Freeza wrote:
@McLewis wrote:Yeah it looks like Biden voters bolted for Buttigieg's camp. Interesting, but not surprising.


Understandable. Both terrible picks, but at least one is still coherent.

Biden will continue to bleed votes and is the only candidate I think Trump can beat

lol you're really out of touch with the US if you think Trump will only win against Biden

Trump is the mega favorite for the election regardless of who he is up against

3% unemployment, low inflation, real wages rising for the first time in forever, a loyal base that will stand by him regardless of whatever he does and will definitely turn in to vote

meanwhile the dems can't put together a decent candidate between 21 picks


Mega favourite how? All polls point to any democrat except Pete being a favourite against him. So where ever that huge that huge favourite status comes from I’d like to see it.

Some polls I found here. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/

Most in the recent times have picked most democrats to win handily.

Also Betty. I never called you an elitist. But now that you said it, you kind of are. And let’s not act like Europeans don’t know American politics. US politics are global politics and it’s very American to assume you’re a national entity.


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Post by Freeza on Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:45 pm

Also what the hell is with this caucus system and them flipping a coin to decide ties Laughing

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Post by BarrileteCosmico on Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:48 pm

@Freeza wrote:
Spoiler:
@BarrileteCosmico wrote:
@Freeza wrote:
@McLewis wrote:Yeah it looks like Biden voters bolted for Buttigieg's camp. Interesting, but not surprising.


Understandable. Both terrible picks, but at least one is still coherent.

Biden will continue to bleed votes and is the only candidate I think Trump can beat

lol you're really out of touch with the US if you think Trump will only win against Biden

Trump is the mega favorite for the election regardless of who he is up against

3% unemployment, low inflation, real wages rising for the first time in forever, a loyal base that will stand by him regardless of whatever he does and will definitely turn in to vote

meanwhile the dems can't put together a decent candidate between 21 picks

Mega favourite how? All polls point to any democrat except Pete being a favourite against him. So where ever that huge that huge favourite status comes from I’d like to see it.

Some polls I found here. https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/general_election/

Most in the recent times have picked most democrats to win handily.

Also Betty. I never called you an elitist. But now that you said it, you kind of are. And let’s not act like Europeans don’t know American politics. US politics are global politics and it’s very American to assume you’re a national entity.



Polls are not really good to judge Trump, as we saw in 2016. HRC won the popular vote and still lost. And many people still have "Trump-shame" or are not polled by traditional polling agencies and as a result don't show up there. A 3 point gap on the RCP average tells me nothing. If it were 10 points then sure, but as far as I can tell from living here, nothing has changed. No one that voted for him regrets it and they would do it again. If anything, I see them more radicalized than before.

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Post by Freeza on Tue Feb 04, 2020 11:54 pm

Poll were not wrong last time. They were pretty much spot on. National polls are always about popular votes.
She won by 2.1% and polls had her at around 3%, which is within the margin of error. It’s a false narrative that the polls were wrong.

It’s hard to poll an electoral college and how those votes are distributed.

How the polls did affect Hillary negatively was that while the numbers were correct she just didn’t focus in getting the votes in right states in reality.

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Post by Blue on Wed Feb 05, 2020 2:10 am

Actually if there was something Hilary can blame for her loss is James Comey, when he announced that he was reopening an investigation into Hilary Clinton emails days prior to election day. I actually think that was the swinging point, FBI director is an authority figure that is seen above Partisan politics. I don't think the polls reflected that shock wave.

Hilary and her supporters blames Sanders, Russia, sexism, god knows what else. But hardly ever do i hear Comey comes up, he is seen as a liberal hero and getting very rich post his role at the FBI.

I think Trump is very beatable, he is arguably the most disliked political figure in American politics. But i do think he will win his relection, because the DNC have done everything to make that possible. Spending large course of his presidency discussing Russiagate, then spending months about impeachment trials that no one gives damn. Now we are the primary, the time they present their candidates who will take down Trump. They make a mess out of it with their error with the App. The Iowa primary is seen as huge polls and endorsement boost to the winner, but the story will be how incompetent they are and further dividing their base.

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Post by Myesyats on Wed Feb 05, 2020 8:31 am

@Young Kaz wrote:
Careful now. You arent insinuating that Europeans dont know more about our country than we do are you?

You'll be called an elitist and closet republican like I was soon. Laughing

You are japanese, not american. Eureopans are more American than you since we basically founded America
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Post by Freeza on Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:04 am

@Myesyats wrote:
@Young Kaz wrote:
Careful now. You arent insinuating that Europeans dont know more about our country than we do are you?

You'll be called an elitist and closet republican like I was soon. Laughing

You are japanese, not american. Eureopans are more American than you since we basically founded America


He’s American. And also current Japan is pretty much shaped by America just as much as any European country, if not more.

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Post by The Demon of Carthage on Wed Feb 05, 2020 9:54 am

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:meanwhile the dems can't put together a decent candidate between 21 picks

I agree with this. Then again, I may not be as knowledgeable as you guys are about the US election.

From an outsider's standpoint though, I feel the dems are fighting a losing battle, which means it doesn't matter who will come out as their final pick to face Trump, they'll get murdered.

The average citizen only cares about unemployment (which dropped to the lowest level in nearly half a century), wages (weekly wages grew faster than inflation) and inflation (The CPI rose 4.7% during Trump’s first 29 months) - that alone will convince many Americans to vote Trump again. He'll continue to get votes even though the bigger picture is a little darker than the all-sunshine-and-rainbows one Trump is promoting:

1. The federal debt held by the public has increased by $1.8 trillion since he took office.

2. The number of people without health insurance rose by 2 million to 7 million.

3. the U.S. global trade deficit has steadily increased during his presidency.

Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the dems won't beat Trump in the next election.

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Post by Freeza on Wed Feb 05, 2020 10:08 am

Do people care about being employment rate when the opposition offers free tuition, debt cancellation and free healthcare?

Also Trump being unbeatable comes from where? Every data shows he’s wildly unpopular compared to most presidents going for reelection.

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Post by rincon on Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:00 am

@Freeza wrote:Do people care about being employment rate when the opposition offers free tuition, debt cancellation and free healthcare?

Absolutely. A lot of people don't care for, or trust, the government giving "free" anything. For a lot of people employment gives them the freedom to buy their own schooling and health insurance.
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Post by Freeza on Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:32 am

@rincon wrote:
@Freeza wrote:Do people care about being employment rate when the opposition offers free tuition, debt cancellation and free healthcare?

Absolutely. A lot of people don't care for, or trust, the government giving "free" anything. For a lot of people employment gives them the freedom to buy their own schooling and health insurance.


Still find the concept of healthcare through an employer to be absolutely insane.

Also freedom to buy is such a dumb concept. Don’t doubt it being a real train of thought though. It’s just so much mor costly overall to have private schooling and private health care. Which is probably why it’s still a thing in the states. It’s extremely profitable for a small amount of people.

And the question was about employment rate. Do people vote for that number? I would never vote because of a single stat that doesn’t tell the whole story about the jobs in question. Does it change voters minds above all else? Often found politics about personal values be much more important in elections.


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Post by BarrileteCosmico on Wed Feb 05, 2020 11:51 am

@Freeza wrote:Do people care about being employment rate when the opposition offers free tuition, debt cancellation and free healthcare?

Also Trump being unbeatable comes from where? Every data shows he’s wildly unpopular compared to most presidents going for reelection.

They don't care about the unemployment rate, not really. What they care is that they are employed at a job where they feel fulfilled, are paid well and that times are "good". If you feel satisfied with your economic situation you are unlikely to vote to change the ruling party. The unemployment rate is just a proxy for this.

And yeah there are a ton of people in the US that do not want public tuition, Healthcare, etc. Ironically it's usually the people that need these the most.

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Post by Freeza on Wed Feb 05, 2020 12:27 pm

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:
@Freeza wrote:Do people care about being employment rate when the opposition offers free tuition, debt cancellation and free healthcare?

Also Trump being unbeatable comes from where? Every data shows he’s wildly unpopular compared to most presidents going for reelection.

They don't care about the unemployment rate, not really. What they care is that they are employed at a job where they feel fulfilled, are paid well and that times are "good". If you feel satisfied with your economic situation you are unlikely to vote to change the ruling party. The unemployment rate is just a proxy for this.

And yeah there are a ton of people in the US that do not want public tuition, Healthcare, etc. Ironically it's usually the people that need these the most.


Yeah I don’t doubt any of this, at all.

The last part one of the reasons. People often vote against their own self interest because of what people would call identity politics. The southern strategy more precisely.

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