Germany Election

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Post by Hapless_Hans Wed Nov 29, 2017 5:37 pm

@CBarca wrote:
@Hapless_Hans wrote:Good.


Is this sarcastic or genuine?

Explain yourself

(because I'm curious, not because I have an opinion on the matter)


Not sarcastic. Will write more at some point.

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Post by RealGunner Sun Mar 04, 2018 9:41 am

Five months of political deadlock end in Germany as Social Democrats agree to join Angela Merkel's coalition
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Post by Hapless_Hans Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:01 am

Kill me now please
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Post by RealGunner Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:04 am

She is good for Germany though.

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Post by Hapless_Hans Sun Mar 04, 2018 10:14 am

Go wash out your mouth with soap please
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Post by futbol Sun Mar 04, 2018 12:37 pm

What alternative, specially for a leftist like you? AfD according to all polls is sitting around 15 - 16 %.

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Post by Robespierre Mon Mar 05, 2018 2:00 pm

SPD is officially the CDU's crutch
Gradual attrition of this party that is leading towards 20+years of CDU supremacy imo ( as it was until 69 )


>>>>>> Italian elections though
We Italian leftists are much worse and that's enough Laughing
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Post by zigra Mon Mar 05, 2018 4:56 pm

@futbol wrote:What alternative, specially for a leftist like you? AfD according to all polls is sitting around 15 - 16 %.

Actually it's 13-16.

But the current polls don't matter anyway.
The SPD would have had to radically change their team and the CDU might have used the situation to get rid of Merkel for new elections. In the end the result could've been similar or completely different, impossible to tell.
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Post by VivaStPauli Wed Mar 07, 2018 2:00 pm

SPD making themselves obsolete, this is so hard to watch...

Merkel is better than Kohl, or the AfD, but she's still a CDU chancellor, and as such needs to go.
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Post by Sri Sat Oct 13, 2018 10:37 am

Bavaria goes to poll. CSU expected to get completely routed, and faces a very likely scenario of a coalition with the greens - a 'nightmare' according to CSU leaders.
Greens have been growing strongly, and trying to show that dirndls, Heimat, etc are not proprietary to CSU. I read recently that they are actually attracting a lot of attention from (a) conservative Catholics who believe in humanity and kindness, repulsed by AfD's rhetoric picked up by the CSU, and (b) nature loving Bavarians who want to see the beautiful Bavarian countryside preserved. Greens claim that these are core votebanks of CSU switching towards Greens.
SPD is pretty much dead anyway.
What is scary is the numbers AfD is polling. They've at least said they will not form any coalitions, so they would not be governing. But they are quite likely to be the biggest opposition block.

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Post by Hapless_Hans Sat Oct 13, 2018 11:08 am

I know that with the Greens these days anything is possible, and black-green as a coalition is basically accepted now, but I still can't for the life of me imagine that they could do this with the CSU .

That would be absolutely outrageous given the 100% anti-immigrant, shamelessly racist agenda the CSU focused on following AfD's success.

Despite knowing that the Greens are ready to participate in anything these days, wars, coal mining, the car industry's agenda, what have you, I refuse to believe a CSU-Grüne coalition would be actually possible, in Bavaria, this time around.
Let's not forget there's still some difference between CDU and CSU. Let's not forget the stunt Seehofer pulled with regards to immigration policy only a few months ago.
CSU's best bet is some kind of threesome with Freie Wähler and FDP if mathematically possible.

Funnily, it might be that after this election, for the first time in half a century !!, there could be a majority AGAINST the CSU possible, if SPD, Grüne, FDP, and Freie Wähler would have the guts to pull together.
If I were them, I'd do it just for shits and giggles, no matter whether actual compromises can be reached regarding a successful coalition government.
I'd do it, even if that government only last 2 weeks, just so that the fat, feisty, boorish, entitled, corrupt, pork filled CSU ministers would have to move out of their offices, and give up their car and driver, for those 2 weeks. That would be worth it, even if that fragile construct would collapse immediately after. That would be historic.

Of course, none of those clowns would have the sense to do it, least of all the hapless, hopeless losers and amateurs that constitute the SPD.

Still, good to see Söder is actually as unliked even by the Bavarian electorate as he is immediately unlikeable to everyone with eyes and ears.

About the AfD, it's actually quite simple. CSU used to have 50%, and everyone who spent an hour in Bavaria (I spent my childhoood and adolescence there) knows that a considerable amount of people there are ignorant, backward, xenophobes and racists with strong authoritarian leanings. So among those 50% CSU voters, you knew a part were far right people who might easily have voted for more extremist parties hadn't the CSU covered the right fringe themselves. This part has now decided to vote AfD, so the percentages, 35+15, simply add up, despite the CSU doing their best to be as anti-immigrant as possible without blowing up the Berlin coalition.

It's an interesting election though. CSU's low numbers will make for fantastic Schadenfreude, and the formation of government is hard to predict and might prove tricky. Also interesting, if push came to shove, whether the CSU would be ready and willing to form a coalition with AfD.
Politically, they're nearest, of course, but it would be a considerable breach of etiquette, of political correctness. If CSU did this, it would be quite a marker just how far political discourse and practice has actually shifted to the right, and how terrible a future awaits us.
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Post by VivaStPauli Sat Oct 13, 2018 1:14 pm

Bayern-Ampel, do it now!

Also, I agree with everything Hans has said. Taking the CSU down a couple notches might be good for the country, as a whole, though as well. They've been holding their sister party, the CDU, politically hostage for decades now, leveraging their seats to make Federal policy bend to Bavaria's whims, gaining their state unfair advantages, which they then sold to their voter base as them doing successful economic policy, which they didn't, they just always had Berlin looking out for them.

Goddamn corrupt CSU fatcats, worst people ever.
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Post by Sri Sat Oct 13, 2018 3:01 pm

@Hapless_Hans wrote: Also interesting, if push came to shove, whether the CSU would be ready and willing to form a coalition with AfD.
Politically, they're nearest, of course, but it would be a considerable breach of etiquette, of political correctness. If CSU did this, it would be quite a marker just how far political discourse and practice has actually shifted to the right, and how terrible a future awaits us.


This would be the worst imaginable outcome by a LONG margin, coming only second to an AfD outright majority. But you know who has the credibility to prevent that? AfD. Not Soder. Not Seehofer. It would not happen because the goddamn AfD of all these clowns wouldn't sell out on what they stand for to make a coalition just for being in power Laughing

I find it karmic, that CSU tried to hijack the AfD rhetoric and managed to push a different chunk of their voter base into the green arms.

I like that SPD-Greens-FW tango, as far away as it is from being realistic. hmm

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Post by Sri Sat Oct 13, 2018 4:15 pm

@VivaStPauli wrote:
Goddamn corrupt CSU fatcats, worst people ever.


It's not hard to see why Katharina Schulze in contrast is so likable.

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Post by futbol Sun Oct 14, 2018 4:44 am

Germany is dead for me, I will leave to Switzerland or Canada within the next 2 or 3 years, it's already planned. Thanks for the free education though.

It's 2018 and I'm waiting 2 months to get Internet connection in the new flat in the middle of a million people metropolis. In Germany you wait months for a technician to come and do 5 minutes of work to check your telephone line. In Finland I had LTE in the *bleep* forest, in Germany I sit in the busiest underground line with no Internet connection.

When the window of my car was broken by someone the police did not bother to come, they told me to go to the next police station. That coincidentally the car was parked infront of a casino which had a camera pointed toward my car I had to find out by myself. But when I parked in second lane for literally ONE minute to speak to the locksmith (the answer was a quick "no", he could not copy the key) in the evening in an empty street with enough room for 2 trucks to fit besides my car the police actually followed me to hand me the parking ticket through the window on the next red light stop.

I had not even moved in 2 days and the bitch neighboor already tells me she took photos of the cardbox in the trash that I have not adequately shredded, in her opinion.

And have I already told you about the 2.99 Euro bill which I had paid with my bank card but because I was in the middle of a bank account change, the bill got not paid because the store where I bought from used debit method where the money isn't immediately taken from my bank account (you actually have no information about this beforehand) which then was closed a couple of days later so all of a sudden I got a 100 Euro bill from a debt collection company a couple weeks later?

Do you also know that soon 3 year old Diesel cars will be forbidden in certain areas in many cities in Germany? 3 year old cars will be forbidden to enter certain areas.

BUT: Closing the borders is the main issue in my life right now, let's fill 500 more talkshows with the topic!!!11

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Post by Sri Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:14 am

Wow you've had you share of experiences with Germany!

Quite honestly, I've been living here close to a decade but never run into anything remotely like that. Then again, I planned and booked my technician appointments a month before I moved ;-) You also have the cable internet option these days, which can be fitted without a technician appointment.

A friend of mine had a very similar experience in Köln with his car though. He claims that the window was shattered because it was a car with a Düsseldorf plate hmm

I actually have quite a few friends who prefer the life in NRW or Berlin or something compared to life in Schwabland or Bayern. I find the latter especially more conservative - you just don't feel it if you're in Munich, being a lot more international.

You're right that there are a thousand more important things to address - saving the bees for example, than still talking about the borders. Unfortunately, politics is about attention and not pragmatism.

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Post by Sri Sun Oct 14, 2018 6:17 am

PS: Good luck with Switzerland, if you think Germany is bad rofl

Actually, it doesn't matter if you're in Canada or Switzerland or Germany - the urban vs rural divide is not too dissimilar, esp when it concerns foreigners. Toronto, though, is an absolutely wonderful city (with its own dirty underbelly).

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Post by iftikhar Sun Oct 14, 2018 9:18 am

How does this Free Voters thing work???
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Post by Hapless_Hans Sun Oct 14, 2018 9:26 pm

@iftikhar wrote:How does this Free Voters thing work???

It's a political party."Free Voters" is the name of the party.
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Post by futbol Mon Oct 15, 2018 2:17 am

@Sri wrote:

Then again, I planned and booked my technician appointments a month before I moved ;-) You also have the cable internet option these days, which can be fitted without a technician appointment.

Yeah but I can't book an appointment with the Internet provider without having signed the rental agreement first. And signing a rental agreement in Germany is another hilarious bureaucratic act. If you are a millionair (for instance you inherited money from your rich grandparents) but you don't have income at the same time because you are a student, you won't get an apartment without someone vouching for you. So 2000 Euros income a month >>> 0 income but 5 millions on your bank account.

I asked for the logic behind this. The lessor told me that fortune on the bank account could be gone quickly.

Yeah, but income can't for some reason because people never lose jobs. Rolling Eyes

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Post by Sri Mon Oct 15, 2018 6:08 am

True dat rofl

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Post by iftikhar Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:14 am

The CSU will hold 85 seats (compared to 101 seats won in the 2013 vote), the Greens 38 seats (compared to 18), Free Voters 27 (compared to 19), the SPD 22 (compared to 42), the AfD 22 and the FDP 11.

It's obvious that even a non-CSU grand coalition wont have the majority needed.
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Post by Hapless_Hans Mon Oct 15, 2018 8:47 am

@iftikhar wrote:The CSU will hold 85 seats (compared to 101 seats won in the 2013 vote), the Greens 38 seats (compared to 18), Free Voters 27 (compared to 19), the SPD 22 (compared to 42), the AfD 22 and the FDP 11.

It's obvious that even a non-CSU grand coalition wont have the majority needed.


CSU will simply and comfortably form a coalition with the Free Voters. These are a centrist, loosely organized, locally focused group without much political agenda.
CSU will just use them to get their majorities and policywise not have to make too muany concessions. They'll get a couple of smaller ministries noone cares about, like Ministry of education and Ministry for digital stuff and media.
Maybe CSU has to give up one or two of their most corrupt and nonsensical pet projects, like their recent universally ridiculed attempt to form a space flight consortium, so the Free Voters can satisfy their common-sensical, close-to-the-voter, anti-corruption, image and policies.

That'll be it. In the main areas, things will continue as usual.

The ramifications of this election will be much more strongly felt in Berlin, in the nation-wide politics.
The absolute rock-bottom result for SPD (while always a pity case in Bavaria) might mean they actually finally hear the coin drop and will leave the Berlin 'great coalition' (it's called 'great', or 'large' coalition as the two big parties of post-war Germany, CDU/CSU and SPD, right and left, form it together).
It's possible Merkel's federal government actually breaks up.
I won't hold my breath though. Breaking up a government, no matter how dysfunctional, new elections, is for some reason considered YUCK! in German politics.

Also, Merkel will use this result to get rid of Seehofer, CSU party chief and interior minister of her government, who has been a relentless pain in the arse for her in the last year.
She's getting rid of powerful CDU/CSU men left and right. Proud
Her path is plastered with the bodies of ambitious CDU men Proud
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Post by Sri Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:43 am

@Hapless_Hans wrote:
Also, Merkel will use this result to get rid of Seehofer, CSU party chief and interior minister of her government, who has been a relentless pain in the arse for her in the last year.


This would arguably be the best thing coming out of this election tbh.

SPD are finished. I doubt they will pull out of the coalition, but seeing the term through will only make them all the more irrelevant in the long term.

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Post by Sri Mon Oct 15, 2018 9:49 am

Freie-Wähler-Chef Hubert Aiwanger hätte als Koalitionspartner der CSU in einer neuen Bayerischen Staatsregierung gerne drei Ministerien. „Drei Stück an Ministerien werden wohl realistisch sein“, sagte Aiwanger am Montag dem Radiosender Bayern 2. Dass sich die CSU nicht mit seiner Partei, sondern mit den Grünen einigt, hält er für unwahrscheinlich. „Da bin ich sehr gelassen“, erklärte der Parteichef. „Wir werden am Ende diejenigen sein, mit denen die Regierung zustande kommt.“

In die Koalitionsverhandlungen gehen die Freien Wähler mit festen Vorstellungen. So müsse die CSU „von einigen Größenwahnprojekten“ runter wie dem Raumfahrtprogramm Bavaria One. „Wir werden jetzt auch nicht kuschen“, meinte Aiwanger. Falsche Dinge werde man auch weiter korrigieren.

Zu den weiteren Koalitionsoptionen der CSU sagte Aiwanger im Deutschlandfunk: „Wenn Söder Lust hat, sich die Finger zu verbrennen, soll er mit Roten und Grünen verhandeln. Da wird er auf keinen grünen Zweig kommen. Wir brauchen auch nicht die Latte sehr hoch zu legen und uns wie eine Prinzessin zu gebärden.“

Basically reinstates what Hans wrote above. FW will be easy pickings for the CSU to basically continue the same crap with minor concessions like Bavaria One (rofl)

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Post by VivaStPauli Wed Oct 17, 2018 3:21 pm

Maybe Hans is Hubert Aiwanger?
That was incredibly spot on, I actually lol'ed a bit.
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