English Premier League '16-'17 Discussion - Part 4

Hapless_Hans wrote:Klopp overdid the dyeing job there. Very unnatural yellowish blonde

Pretty cringy stuff, on the whole. That mythic, historic victory over Hull

Hapless_Hans wrote:relevations

4 - Steven Defour has been involved in four of Burnley's five goals in the Premier League this season (scoring one, assisting three). Key.

— OptaJoe (@OptaJoe) September 26, 2016

Firenze wrote:fergie was right again unreal player, can't wait for liverpool to sign him next season

Don't call me James wrote:

Hapless_Hans wrote:relevations

Nishankly wrote:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CtZHJVVWEAEWZbK.jpg

Nishankly wrote:Obviously he'll get found out soon enough but lmfao

My latest blog post, which the stat-minded should enjoy!

The Stats That Suggest Klopp’s Liverpool Is Taking Shape

The Liverpool Echo had an article at the weekend which claimed to have ‘the proof Liverpool fans are right to be excited by start of season‘. It spoke of the Reds scoring four-or-more goals in the first two home games for the first time in the top flight since 1922, and scoring the most goals the club has managed in the opening eight games since 1895, and there were some impressive individual player stats from the Hull City rout thrown in too.

This is all well and good, but finishing can blow both hot and cold so for an amateur football analyst like myself a little deeper digging into the underlying numbers is required, and the good news is that the findings are both positive and, based on Klopp’s managerial history, entirely expected.

When the German first took over at Anfield, I wrote this free piece for The Tomkins Times about how consistently impressive Dortmund’s shots on target ratios were under Jürgen Klopp: https://tomkinstimes.com/2015/10/jurgen-klopp-can-balance-defence-and-attack/. Rather than regurgitate the article in full here, I will re-post the table of shots on target ratios and the key paragraph here.



This season, Liverpool average 7.2 shots on target per league game, and their shots on target ratio is a very impressive 69.4%. One other point from the above article is definitely worth mentioning here: the Champions in the Premier League for the previous seven seasons averaged 66% on this front (though Leicester went onto win the title with only 56%, putting a slight dent in this), so Klopp’s team have started 2016/17 very well indeed.

Now it would be folly to assume at this point that this level of performance will definitely continue for the whole campaign; as much as we’d like them to, the Reds won’t hit double figures for shots on target for every single home game this season, as they have so far. As an aside, Liverpool’s last two home games are in a group of just eighteen league games from the previous 310 (from August 2008 onwards) where the Reds have had eleven-or-more shots on target.

What we can say though is that Liverpool’s performance for this early part of the 2016/17 season has basically matched that of the best Premier League team statistically (in terms of shots on target at least) from the last eight seasons.

It’s only fair to point out that at this early stage of the campaign there are other teams with better shots on target ratios than Liverpool; Southampton have posted 70.8%, and Everton a remarkable 76.5%. Tottenham aside, Everton have yet to face anyone that likely to finish in the top half though, whilst Southampton have travelled to Arsenal and Manchester United (plus West Ham) in fairness, but have had three likely bottom half sides at home. I think it’s safe to say that Liverpool have had the hardest run so far.

It’s also interesting to draw some parallels with the manager’s career at Dortmund. Last season, Klopp’s Liverpool posted a shots on target ratio of 60%, which was a very creditable effort when taking over mid-season (and the average level posted by the Premier League’s fourth placed teams), and which matches his side’s efforts in 2009/10. BVB’s ratio then leaped to 71.2% the following season, and they won the league.

Are we seeing a similar pattern begin to emerge at Liverpool? I keep saying it’s too early to be sure, but the Reds’ start to 2016/17 certainly suggests it’s a possibility at least. Either way, the shots on target numbers imply to me that Klopp’s Liverpool appear to be taking shape in the same way that his illustrious Dortmund side did.

After the thirty-six league games they’ve played under the management of Jürgen Klopp, Liverpool’s shots on target ratio is 62%, which is the average that the team finishing third posts, and is one that has only been bettered by twenty-two of the 160 team seasons from the last eight years in the Premier League. If the Reds can continue to average seven shots on target per game and a ratio of 69%, then rest assured this will be a very special season indeed, even if no more 120 year old scoring records are broken along the way.

Nishankly wrote:Swansea head coach Francesco Guidolin on whether defeat (vs Liverpool) could end his tenure: "It could happen. Maybe."

Did anyone vote for this guy to go first

RealGunner wrote:Damn, feel sorry for Guidolin.

Firenze wrote:seeing Delle Alli's name mentioned in that Golden Boy thread got me thinking, not sure how I evaluate him, think he is slightly over hyped tbh. Hasn't looked very good when he's played this season and started to cool towards the end of last season.

What do you think his ceiling is?