US Presidential Race

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Post by Myesyats Sat 29 Oct 2016 - 16:45

Pedram wrote:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/29/clinton-47-trump-45-in-post-abc-tracking-poll/

It's happening guys, and this poll was conducted before the FBI reopening investigation. would be hilarious if Hillary fails to beat him, Trump is literally the weakest candidate GOP could ever put.

Yesssss. Hillary means war with Russia and Europe would be the battle field again for sure. Save us Trump!

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Post by CBarca Sat 29 Oct 2016 - 18:07

Russia doesn't have the ability to fight a war with anyone right now. Look at how they're doing Laughing

Besides, war with major powers like US vs Russia is not going to happen in this day and age. There is nothing to gain from either side (but especially Russia). The most that will happen are little proxy skirmishes out in the middle east.

Pedram wrote:https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2016/10/29/clinton-47-trump-45-in-post-abc-tracking-poll/

It's happening guys, and this poll was conducted before the FBI reopening investigation. would be hilarious if Hillary fails to beat him, Trump is literally the weakest candidate GOP could ever put.


I would suggest following http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/?ex_cid=rrpromo instead. Nate Silver has been spot on for many elections now and it's an aggregation of all of the latest polls instead of one single tracking poll. He has Hillary at 80% and Trump at 20%, and it's been bullish on Trump for the entirety of the contest.

It's not over, and it's wrong to assume that Hillary at 80% is a sure thing, but it's not close even with the FBI "reopening" their investigation, which sounds like it's mostly a non-issue.
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Post by rwo power Sat 29 Oct 2016 - 21:18

Obviously this year's election is actually a reverse popularity contest - it will not be the most popular candidate, but rather the least unpopular one who'll get elected, I'd say. ^^
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Post by Vibe Sat 29 Oct 2016 - 22:24

Media are all biased towards Clinton, aren't they?
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Post by McLewis Sat 29 Oct 2016 - 22:26

Except for Fox News and Breitbart, of course.
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Post by RealGunner Sat 29 Oct 2016 - 22:27

CNN leans towards Trump as well from what I have seen.

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Post by CBarca Sat 29 Oct 2016 - 22:34

Idk about the LA Times coverage but they've had a tracking poll that has been somewhat an outlier in favor of Trump running for pretty much the whole election (relative to the mean)
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Post by Myesyats Sun 30 Oct 2016 - 8:24

RealGunner wrote:CNN leans towards Trump as well from what I have seen.


I doubt that. hmm
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Post by Vibe Sun 30 Oct 2016 - 11:57

Well I've been looking at some of those independent polls and they mostly show a very slender lead for Clinton at best, while most favor Trump.

It's a shame we live in a world where you seek the truth by figuring out who is lying the least.
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Post by Hapless_Hans Sun 30 Oct 2016 - 12:56

FiveThirtyEight have an excellent record of analysing polls and predicting outcomes.
They say it's about 80-20 right now (not votes, but chances to win).

Depending on cycles (post convention bumps etc), these chances have been slowly oscillating between 50% and 90% probability of a win for Hillary.
This is based on avalable polling, factoring in past reliability of polling and weighting them according to a few other criteria.

It's a very well-tuned algorithm that then runs through something like 10000 iterations an virtual election to come up with that forecast percentage number, but if anything, I think in this election, with the fact that Trump is a candidate whose sheer outrageousness exceeds traditional notions of candidates, those polls might be overestimating his chances simply by treating him as an option like any other, when he's arguably not.
Noone is actually going to show up to vote for him, but a core of blowhards, eventually.
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Post by Kaladin Sun 30 Oct 2016 - 13:56

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Post by McLewis Sun 30 Oct 2016 - 17:19

RealGunner wrote:CNN leans towards Trump as well from what I have seen.



Meh Trump and the rest of the alt-right keeps calling them the Clinton News Network Laughing
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Post by CBarca Sun 30 Oct 2016 - 17:51

Vibe wrote:Well I've been looking at some of those independent polls and they mostly show a very slender lead for Clinton at best, while most favor Trump.

It's a shame we live in a world where you seek the truth by figuring out who is lying the least.


As Hans and I pointed out, FiveThirtyEight (ran by Nate Silver) has a very good record with elections and is an aggregation of polls, and has Hillary at 80% (again, as I said, they've also admitted theirs gives a little more credit to Trump than others like Huffpost pollster). FiveThirtyEight does lean liberal don't get me wrong, but it doesn't matter because their reputation rests upon being a site which conducts high quality statistical analysis and gets elections and the electoral college right. Not on their political commentary--which, for the most part, is based around their numbers anyway.

80-20 give Trump a chance and he has a chance. Those aren't good odds but they aren't Leicester odds. I don't see any real reason why you should convince yourself that Trump is actually ahead or just barely behind though.
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Post by DeletedUser#1 Mon 31 Oct 2016 - 15:54

As I promised 6 months ago, I'll make a quick comeback fro the election time, and living in New York for the past 2 months, I've been in the thick of things.

I still stand by my support of a Trump win (I have been predicting it since July 2015), and I believe Michigan going RED will be the clincher.

A few things

- RG, come on....CNN is literally Hillary' PR channel. Just watch this video and notice how many times the air goes "off accidentally" when someone is saying something anti-favourable about her. Those are not accidents. Hell, the fired Doctor Drew in August when he questioned Hillary' health (A week before her passing out on 9/11). Having said that, all mainstream media is cancer, and it was up to me, i'd send them all to the gulags.




- I also want to keep the world free of WWIII. As a person of Middleeastern descent, I am very well aware of what's going on there...and it's horrible to see Syria (which was the most liberal and touristy place because of its freedoms) being shredded because Qatar and Saudi Arabia wanted to get a gas pipeline through the Europe. Christians and minorities were protected under Assad, you could go have a beer at a bar, no hijab necessary. I hope he wins back his country. Hillary proposed "No Fly Zone" which in a leaked pedestal email she admits will "kill a lot of syrians" https://theintercept.com/2016/10/10/in-secret-goldman-sachs-speech-hillary-clinton-admitted-no-fly-zone-would-kill-a-lot-of-syrians/ ...means shooting down Russian and Syrian planes which as a general of US military said, means war with Russia. THE FSA is a direct creation of CIA to bring down Assad. many of the "rebels" fighting in Syria aren't even Syrian.
US Presidential Race - Page 21 CvOODHqWYAA2swg . Putin said it best describing the formation of ISIS. (Rebels are directly coordinating with Al-Qaeda btw and Al-Nusra and even Kerry admitted it.




Very good video from a Syrian girl I follow on twitter, and she always posts photos from Damescus and at heart of things. Explains the situation and the threat of WW , and everything. She's hot too !




She's brought back the cold war single-handedly to the point that Mikhail Gorbachev said all of the good work him and Ronald Reagan did to prevent a nuclear war, is being shredded and world is now closer to it than any time before.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/russia-us-tensions-nuclear-war-dangerous-threshold-soviet-leader-mikhail-gorbachev-cold-war-a7356941.html

btw, this is a recent interview with Assad (2 weeks old). He speaks perfect English, better than both Hillary and Trump...not surprised as he's a very educated man, a doctor, and speaks French too. Listen to him and he opens it up. Role of Israel, the Shia-Sunni proxy war ,and SAUDI ARABIA behind all.




If Hillary' emails are found on the laptop of Weiner, and actually released, then all of what you'd probably accuse me of "Conspiracy theory" will be proven.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CwCLIMcVYAA79cS.jpg:medium

One of my biggest reasons for embracing Trump is that he has clearly indicated he's against the current US foreign policy of regime change, and nation building, and horrible wars. Only people from Mid-East can get it....That's why even republican Neo-cons like Bill Kristol, Romney, McCain, Bush hate him and you can be 100% sure they'll be either voting Hillary or McMullin on the election night.


I'm glad that this election cycle has taught us very interesting things

- America isn't the "beacon" of democracy as we all thought it was. From rigging the primaries for Bernie, to Kerry shutting off Assange by threatening Ecuador, limiting freedom of press.....to the dishonest media.

- We've learned about the Clinton crime family. Hillary admits in a 2014 email that Saudi and Qatar fund ISIS, yet a year later....she takes 1 million dollars as a birthday gift of Qatar to Bill. and many more examples of that, and now FBI are probing a criminal investigation into Clinton Foundation which could be the biggest ponzi-scheme of all time, to her rigging the Palestinian elections in 2006, crimes in Honduras, Haiti, too much to list. Just have a look yourself.

http://www.mostdamagingwikileaks.com

- We've learned the left is only tolerant, as long as you agree with them, but if you go against their narrative, they'll drop you. Peter Thiel can no longer be gay because he supports Trump, Kaitlin Jenner is no longer a hero, because she supports Trump. Hell even a homeless African-american woman trump supporters in LA isn't safe from the Hill Bullies. And thanks to Project Verita videos we now know the DNC and Clinton campaign was directly responsible for the violence at Trump rallies earlier this year, but PAYING UP people to go and start shit. (see the videos of undercover journalism - like the one Telegraph did on Alardyce-  yourself http://projectveritas.com )



Is Trump a perfect candidate ? You bet he isn't. But he's a direct creature of the media, and the PC culture. He's fighting 2 parties at the same time, and he may very well become the president of the US having been labeled a "joke" 18 months ago...this is a once in a lifetime phenomena.

I will be near the Trump Tower on election day. One of my best friends is coming to visit me from Toronto and he's anti-Trump. That's what great....2 best friends, completely opposing each other on most matters, but willing to engage in debate and listen to the other side. If anything, this election has taught us who is a "real" friend and who isn't.


Just to end it up with this, love love love love this ad....not gonna lie, I cried a bit watching and listening to it !





and here is proof of NY living Smile

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Post by Hapless_Hans Mon 31 Oct 2016 - 18:38

Sepi ffs Molenation

If Trump wins, we'll name you Honorary President of GoalLegacy Proud
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Post by Hapless_Hans Mon 31 Oct 2016 - 18:41

CBarca wrote:
As Hans and I pointed out, FiveThirtyEight (ran by Nate Silver) has a very good record with elections and is an aggregation of polls, and has Hillary at 80%


Oops didn't see you posted the very same things two posts above me.

I've been following 538 in 2008 and 2012 and reading it basically means you know how the election ends lol, down to the percentage point.
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Post by RealGunner Mon 31 Oct 2016 - 22:28

Sepi :bow: :bow:

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Post by CBarca Mon 31 Oct 2016 - 23:20

Sepi with further proof that the fringe left and the fringe right are actually quite close

Not sure if communist Sepi or Trump loving Sepi is better
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Post by Pedram Mon 31 Oct 2016 - 23:47

If you wrote this election as the script for the next season of House of Cards it would get rejected for being too unrealistic.
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Post by Hapless_Hans Tue 1 Nov 2016 - 14:02

CBarca wrote:Sepi with further proof that the fringe left and the fringe right are actually quite close

Not sure if communist Sepi or Trump loving Sepi is better


I'm sorry but they are not. That's defamatory stuff to delegitimize far left opinions
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Post by RealGunner Tue 1 Nov 2016 - 18:55

Recent email scandal and wikileaks are hurting Clinton. Trump has closed the gap according to the latest forecast.

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Post by Lex Tue 1 Nov 2016 - 19:21

I'm away for a few days and, suddenly, everyone's backing Trump Laughing
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Post by DuringTheWar Tue 1 Nov 2016 - 19:30

Hapless_Hans wrote:
CBarca wrote:Sepi with further proof that the fringe left and the fringe right are actually quite close

Not sure if communist Sepi or Trump loving Sepi is better


I'm sorry but they are not. That's defamatory stuff to delegitimize far left opinions


Fringe left = Marxism

Marxist-motivated murders in the 20th century >100,000,000

Being a Marxist means attaching yourself to a belief system with an awful historical record.

Now now, I know REAL Marxism has never been tried, and things would have went swimmingly IF ONLY YOU (or Viva) had been in charge of things. But it's better to look at the record of what malevolent Marxist utopians actually do, not their delusions of righteousness and grande delusions of being able to architect a perfect egalitarian system.
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Post by RealGunner Tue 1 Nov 2016 - 19:31

Honestly if Trump was becoming the president of some small country then most would just consider it as banter.

But it's too risky for a powerhouse like USA. Having someone like Trump have control of Nuclear weapons is just insane. Substitute him with Obama and we would be currently witnessing a war between USA and Iran.

For the safety of everyone, Hillary is the wisest choice.
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Post by Lex Tue 1 Nov 2016 - 19:35

Hillary would go to war with Iran under a false pretense. It's what she does best
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Post by Tomwin Lannister Tue 1 Nov 2016 - 19:36

From what I read these days isn't it more likely Hillary would be worse for American - Russian relations AKA the biggest potential conflict at this moment in time?

Neither of these plebs should be allowed within a 10 mile radius of the white house but I think a lot of people are going to end up voting against Trump in fear of having a war mongering retard as their leader and end up with exactly that.
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