Euro Crisis Returns

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Post by Yuri Yukuv Tue Mar 19, 2013 7:43 am

Ze Germans have conquered Europe without a bullet and its time for them to collect their spoils of war. Now we are seeing depositors of under 100,000 Euros being levied a fee between 6 and 8 percent under the pretext of going after Russian black money. More and more the southern european man is being emasculated and made to feel impotent by Frau Merkel.

Euro Crisis Returns  Merkel

Cypriot subjects are not happy with the Flag of the German Empire



Hands off cyprus

Euro Crisis Returns  20130318_CYP3

In the rest of southern Europe the already imposed bailout terms have killed local economies and they are in deep recession, the deposit levy in Cyprus will cause more and more deposits to be taken out of their banking systems and into "more stable" ones like Germnay and Scandanavia.

#1 The Italian economy is in the midst of a horrifying "credit crunch" that is causing thousands of companies to go bankrupt...

Confindustria, the business federation, said 29pc of Italian firms cannot meet "operational expenses" and are starved of liquidity. A "third phase of the credit crunch" is underway that matches the shocks in 2008-2009 and again in 2011.

In a research report the group said the economy was caught in a "vicious circle" where banks are too frightened to lend, driving more companies over the edge. A thousand are going bankrupt every day.

#2 During the 4th quarter of 2012, the unemployment rate in Greece was 26.4 percent. That was 2.6 percent higher than the third quarter of 2012, and it was 5.7 percent higher than the fourth quarter of 2011.

#3 During the 4th quarter of 2012, the youth unemployment rate in Greece was 57.8 percent.

#4 The unemployment rate in Spain has reached 26 percent.

#5 In Spain there are 107 unemployed workers for every available job.

#6 The unemployment rate in Italy is now 11.7 percent. That is the highest that it has been since Italy joined the euro.

#7 The youth unemployment rate in Italy has risen to a new all-time record high of 38.7 percent.

#8 Unemployment in the eurozone as a whole has reached a new all-time high of 11.9 percent.

#9 Italy's economy is starting to shrink at a frightening pace...

Data from Italy's national statistics institute ISTAT showed that the country's economy shrank by 0.9pc in the fourth quarter of last year and gross domestic product was down a revised 2.8pc year-on-year.

#10 The Greek economy is contracting even faster than the Italian economy is...

Greece also sank further into recession during the fourth quarter of 2012, with figures on Monday showing the economy contracted by 5.7pc year-on-year.

#11 Overall, the Greek economy has contracted by more than 20 percent since 2008.

#12 Manufacturing activity is declining just about everywhere in Europe except for Germany...

Research group Markit said its index of activity in UK manufacturing – where 50 is the cut off between growth and decline – sank from 50.5 in January to 47.9 in February. It left Britain on the brink of a third recession in five years after the economy shrank by 0.3 per cent in the final quarter of 2012.

Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit, said: ‘This represents a major setback to hopes that the UK economy can return to growth in the first quarter and avoid a triple-dip recession.’

The eurozone manufacturing index also read 47.9. Germany scored 50.3 but Spain hit 46.8, Italy 45.8 and France 43.9.

#13 The percentage of bad loans in Italian banks has risen to 12.2 percent. Back in 2007, that number was sitting at just 4.5 percent.

#14 Bank deposits experienced significant declines all over Europe during the month of January.

#15 Private bond default rates are soaring all over southern Europe...

S&P said the default rate for Italian non-investment grade bonds jumped to 9.5pc last year from 5.7pc in 2012 as local banks shut off funding. It was even worse in Spain, doubling to 14.3pc.

The default rate in France rocketed from 0.8pc to 8.7pc, the latest in a blizzard of bad news from the country as the delayed effects of tax rises, fiscal tightening, and the strong euro do their worst.

#16 Lars Feld, a key economic adviser to German Chancellor Angela Merkel, recently said the following...

"The sustainability of Italian public finances is in jeopardy. The euro crisis will therefore return shortly with a vengeance."

#17 Things have gotten so bad in Greece that the Greek government plans to sell off 28 state-owned buildings - including the main police headquarters in Athens.


Meanwhile in Germany Audi keeps on sending excess cars to be destroyed 70 Miles north of Munich so their prices wouldnt decline

Euro Crisis Returns  20130317_audi
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Post by zizzle Tue Mar 19, 2013 1:49 pm

if we thought 2008-2009 was bad we havnt seen anything yet. Europe is in deep shit, the US is still in recession, and worrying signs are starting to appear in china. The new bubble will soon burst (could take up to a few years) and it wont look pretty for any of us.

Stay off the market guys, or at least make sure your investments are liquid as possible
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Post by RealGunner Tue Mar 19, 2013 6:42 pm

can't wait to leave this joke of an EU.
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Post by zizzle Wed Mar 20, 2013 2:09 am

You dont see a US state local saying the same thing, except maybe in Texas but thats a different story
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Wed Mar 20, 2013 2:16 am

@RealGunner wrote:can't wait to leave this joke of an EU.
Did you wake up feeling like shooting yourself on the foot? Laughing

Austerity Proud
The troika's focus on short term payments rather than deep rooted institutional reform Proud
Germany bailing out everyone so they can pay German banks back Proud
The ECB Proud
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Post by CBarca Wed Mar 20, 2013 2:48 am

I just find this situation so funny considering what happened to Germany after WWI.

Germany's fiscal responsibility Proud
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Post by Swanhends Wed Mar 20, 2013 3:02 am

Austerity without growth is so f*cking stupid I don't even know where to start

I don't understand why seemingly everyone and their mothers are hopping on the austerity bandwagon
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Post by Yuri Yukuv Wed Mar 20, 2013 9:32 am

The Germans are setting precedent for stealing southern european families money straight from bank accounts





Moar lies and threats from germany

" SCHAEUBLE SAYS IT'S A "SERIOUS SITUATION" - Which as Juncker told us, means "you have to lie."
SCHAEUBLE SAYS GERMANY REGRETS CYPRUS DECISION - Cyprus regrets the German regret
SCHAEUBLE SAYS CYPRUS WILL GET NO MONEY IF THEY DONT ACCEPT OUR OFFERS - Unless Russia and China submit their own better "offers"
SCHAEUBLE SAYS CREDITORS HAVE TO BE INVOLVED WHEN THERE IS AN INSOLVENCY - They usually are, and usually end up with nothing or just more than nothing
SCHAEUBLE SAYS NO ONE EXCEPT CYPRUS IS TO BLAME FOR ITS CURRENT SITUATION - Likewise for its creditors
SCHAEUBLE SAYS CYPRUS GOVT THINKS WITH ITS DECISION IT CAN ATTRACT LARGE INVESTORS TO CYPRUS IN FUTURE - Russia is happy that Germany thinks it is large
SCHAEUBLE SAYS CYPRUS'S "BUSINESS MODEL" DOESN'T WORK ANY MORE, RATINGS AGENCY HAVE DOWNGRADED TO JUNK LEVEL - Italy and Spain's business models are therefore about to break next
SCHAEUBLE SAYS 2 LARGE CYPRUS BANKS ARE ESSENTIALLY INSOLVENT WITHOUT HELP - All large banks are insolvent without help
SCHAEUBLE SAYS HE THINKS CYPRUS MUST ACT QUICKLY, THERE ISN'T ENOUGH TIME TO WAIT UNTIL JUNE - And certainly not until September when the German elections are
SCHAEUBLE SAYS EURO ZONE IS MUCH MORE STABLE THAN PREVIOUSLY - sell first bullet"
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Post by Highburied Wed Mar 20, 2013 12:03 pm

Before anyone blames Germans.

They work hard while greeks and others are lazy and always crying for help.

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Post by BarrileteCosmico Wed Mar 20, 2013 12:18 pm

Greece #2 country that works the longest hours, Italy 8th: http://www.forbes.com/2008/05/21/labor-market-workforce-lead-citizen-cx_po_0521countries.html

Dat media spin Proud
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Post by Swanhends Wed Mar 20, 2013 12:28 pm

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:Greece #2 country that works the longest hours, Italy 8th: http://www.forbes.com/2008/05/21/labor-market-workforce-lead-citizen-cx_po_0521countries.html

Dat media spin Proud

Efficient Germans near the bottom hmm
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Post by RealGunner Wed Mar 20, 2013 4:57 pm

Efficiency = less hours more work hmm

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Post by RealGunner Wed Mar 20, 2013 5:02 pm

@BarrileteCosmico wrote:
@RealGunner wrote:can't wait to leave this joke of an EU.
Did you wake up feeling like shooting yourself on the foot? Laughing

Austerity Proud
The troika's focus on short term payments rather than deep rooted institutional reform Proud
Germany bailing out everyone so they can pay German banks back Proud
The ECB Proud

Would be so much better if we all could return to EEC. Free trade between the European countries and free travel for tourism. That's it.



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Post by RealGunner Wed Mar 20, 2013 5:04 pm

@Swanhends wrote:Austerity without growth is so f*cking stupid I don't even know where to start

I don't understand why seemingly everyone and their mothers are hopping on the austerity bandwagon

Whenever u tell someone that the government are " cutting the deficit " they start celebrating without realising that it means the tax will increase or the spending will cut :facepalm:
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Post by Onyx Wed Mar 20, 2013 5:08 pm

If the crisis gets worse, can the government print out more money from the money machines to make everything alright again? hmm

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Post by RealGunner Wed Mar 20, 2013 5:09 pm

Yohan Modric wrote:If the crisis gets worse, can the government print out more money from the money machines to make everything alright again? hmm

No that would lead to hyper inflation
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Post by Onyx Wed Mar 20, 2013 5:11 pm

Wouldn't that make it easier for people to survive though?

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Post by rwo power Wed Mar 20, 2013 6:59 pm

Yohan Modric wrote:Wouldn't that make it easier for people to survive though?
Been there, done that, got the T-Shirt...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic
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Post by Yuri Yukuv Wed Mar 20, 2013 7:38 pm

@rwo power wrote:
Yohan Modric wrote:Wouldn't that make it easier for people to survive though?
Been there, done that, got the T-Shirt...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_the_Weimar_Republic

Ben is printing $85 Billion a month, the US should have around 3% real growth in GDP 2013. EU and Germany? Most estimates ive seen are around 0%, bundesbank says 0.4%.

I am sure swanheads thinks that weimar republic analogies are overblown
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Post by Swanhends Wed Mar 20, 2013 8:33 pm

@Yuri Yukuv wrote:I am sure swanheads thinks that weimar republic analogies are overblown

For the U.S or the EU?

If you're talking about the U.S I must ask:

Are you Paul, are you Paul Ryan in disguise?


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Post by Yuri Yukuv Wed Mar 20, 2013 9:29 pm

@Swanhends wrote:
@Yuri Yukuv wrote:I am sure swanheads thinks that weimar republic analogies are overblown

For the U.S or the EU?

If you're talking about the U.S I must ask:

Are you Paul, are you Paul Ryan in disguise?



Analogies made by Germans about possible ECB money printing.

For this debate I would be a diet Paul Krugman.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Thu Mar 21, 2013 1:54 am

Would be so much better if we all could return to EEC. Free trade between the European countries and free travel for tourism. That's it.
But that's not what is happen is it? What's going to happen is that if the UK leaves the EU then it would have to renegotiate all trade agreements (and Europe would have much higher leverage) or join the EEA like Norway in which it would enjoy some benefits but have no decision making power, which the british people would loathe.

Also on the hyperinflation debate, it's impossible to have hyperinflation in a country where 3% inflation is regarded to as a catastrophe by central bankers Laughing
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Post by zizzle Thu Mar 21, 2013 2:03 am

Yohan Modric wrote:If the crisis gets worse, can the government print out more money from the money machines to make everything alright again? hmm


Well the US has been doing that for the last decade and we all know how that turned out
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Post by free_cat Thu Mar 21, 2013 10:00 am

I disagree with most said in this thread.

Firstly, I think we are all better with the European Union. I don't know if for economical reasons, because Economy, as a failed science, doesn't really know if we would be better with or without the union. However, we are pretty much better in the EU for political reasons. We used to kill each other every 30 years in Europe, now we don't do it anymore. That's worth everything it takes.

When it comes to economical reasons, people say austerity without growth is stupid. Well, one of the few economical principles that is tested is that reducing public expenditure reduces the GDP. So austerity is really a brake to growth. However, overspending doesn't really assure you that the growth will be enough to cover the deficit in the future, and a country just can go on piling debt indefinitely. It becomes bankrupt sooner or later.

In the case of Cyprus, there are different options:
1- Let the Cyprus banks fail: people lose more than 6 or 10% of their deposits.
2- Cyprus bails the banks but no one bails cyprus: Cyprus goes bankrupt and they have to close the government and services. Possibly Cyprus negotiates a debt forgiveness just like Greece and people also lose more than 6 or 10% of the deposits.
3- Cyprus bails the banks and the EU bails Cyprus at low interest. Basically European tax payers are assuming the cost and Cyprus will have to be in austerity mode for many years to repay the debt or make a debt forgiveness with EU meaning EU taxpayers pay part of it.
4- Cyprus bails the EU, no one bails Cyprus, Cyprus leaves the EU: a new coin is created and everyone in Cyprus loses around 40-60% of their purchasing power via deflation. Huge economical, commercial and administrative problems for leaving the euro.
5- The proposed bailing where Cyprus steals 50% of the bail out to the deposits (most of them from foreigners) and gets a loan for the rest of the bailout from the EU. They have to go in austerity to repay.

To sum up, no one knows what's the best option, but there's no happy place where everyone is 100% happy with the result. No magic formula.

The same happens with the economical crisis. No one knows what's the best way to tackle it or if it can be tackled.
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Post by Swanhends Thu Mar 21, 2013 11:09 am

Here's Yuri Yukuv's main man Paul on the Cyprus issue:

Pauly K wrote:Still trying to wrap my head around the Cyprus situation; what makes it so interesting (as in “may you live in interesting times”) is the role of the island as a tax, regulation, and law enforcement haven.

It’s not just about the Russian connection, but that connection is really huge. Here’s another metric: Cyprus is, according to official figures, the largest single foreign direct investor in Russia — this from an economy roughly the same size as metropolitan Scranton PA. What’s that about? The FT explained it a while back:

This link occurs through CIS [Commonwealth of Independent States] commodity-based shell companies that deposit transactional balances of their CIS-based legal subsidiaries engaged in oil, mineral, and metals exports, often involving transfer pricing and other tax minimization strategies. The Central Bank of Russia classifies Cyprus as the largest single source of FDI in the Russian Federation, with a total of $41.7 billion in cumulative inbound FDI into Russia’s non-financial sector between 2007 and 2010 (over 2.7x German levels)… Cyprus is also counted among the top FDI investing nations in several Central Asian countries (likely Russian capital reinvested via Cyprus, a process known informally as “round-tripping”).

And a key aspect of the current mess is that the Cypriot government isn’t willing to give up this business. That’s why solutions like converting large deposits into CDs haven’t been on the table; once round-tripping Russians know that they can find their money trapped for long periods, they’ll go find another treasure island.

My guess is that in the end Cyprus can’t reclaim the round-tripping business — and once it decides that it can’t, a resolution will become much easier. But they’re not there yet.

Note: Scranton PA has a population of roughly 80,000
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