Champions League Advancement

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Post by Shed Tue Oct 23, 2012 11:56 pm

Looking at things as they are now, they aren't anywhere near as bad as they could have been. Juventus' draw against Nords (LOL) means we stay second in the group, rather than going 2 behind the Bianconeri. Judging by recent performances of all 4 teams - and this is purely conjecture - here's how I think things will pan out for the rest of this round. And, should things go the way I illustrate here - and I think most people would agree these are the likeliest individual outcomes - we'll be fine.

Table right now:

Shakhtar 7
Chelsea 4
Juventus 3
Nordsjælland 1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MatchDay 4:

• Chelsea beat Shakhtar (must win game, essentially)
• Juventus beat Nords (very likely)

Chelsea 7
Shakhtar 7
Juventus 6
Nordsjælland 1

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MatchDay 5:

• Chelsea beat Nords (very, very likely)
• Shakhtar beat Juventus (after today's performances, you'd have to think it's the likeliest outcome)

Chelsea 10
Shakhtar 10
Juventus 6
Nordsjælland 1

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Matchday 6:

Should things pan out the way I've illustrated above, we could even LOSE in Turin and still advance.
The other possible scenario would be us drawing against Shakhtar in 2 weeks, which would mean - depending on Shakhtar beating Juventus at Donbass - we would need only to not lose in Turin and we're through.

Not a situation we would have wanted to be in, but it's far from doom and gloom.
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Post by Rebelles.REUS.rex Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:16 am

Next game is a must win or else Europa league is likely
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Post by Ganso Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:28 am

should have won that 2-2 vs juve :facepalm:
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Post by Shed Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:34 am

@Ganso wrote:should have won that 2-2 vs juve :facepalm:
If that comes back to bites us/ends up being the reason we don't progress, I'm gonnaChampions League Advancement 350uhqu .
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Post by Soul Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:33 am

Relax guys. Things were looking more gloomy last season but RDM and the players gave it their all and we got through. I won't be surprised if we go through second placed

All we have to do is request Roman to make Torres to go..'missing' for awhile. Off the pitch that is.
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Post by Ganso Wed Oct 24, 2012 12:27 pm

It was AVB not rdm
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Post by Abramovich Wed Oct 24, 2012 1:05 pm

We have to hope that Bran and Mikel/Rambo don't get fatigued/knocks, because RDM will never play Azpilcueta or Romeu out of choice. If one of the starters gets injured then they will play, but then lack of match practice and game time will shoot us in the foot with them players possibly looking rusty.
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Post by Blue Barrett Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:08 pm

Should have played Azpi, Romeu & Moses AT LEAST. Our players are going to be knackered come Sunday.
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Post by Shed Wed Oct 24, 2012 4:14 pm

Barrettinator wrote:Should have played Azpi, Romeu & Moses AT LEAST. Our players are going to be knackered come Sunday.
United used most of their regular starters too.

Besides, if 5 days rest isn't enough for them, there's something wrong...
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Post by Kick Thu Oct 25, 2012 3:41 am

Honestly, I just hope we qualify, if we don't I won't be beat up though.

Winning the EPL is more important.
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Post by Shed Thu Oct 25, 2012 8:32 pm

Haha, okay, so I was just looking at our CL fixture list and realized Juve vs Chelsea is on Matchday 5, not 6 Rolling Eyes

Kinda makes this whole thread irrelevant....Laughing

Sorry about that, lads.
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Post by Ganso Tue Nov 20, 2012 10:46 pm

@Ganso wrote:should have won that 2-2 vs juve :facepalm:
LOOK AT MY AVATAR FFS
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Post by Katy Perry Wed Nov 21, 2012 1:13 am

I hardly remember a group stage as hard as this in the last years but I'm really disappointed for the we're going out (really our chances are really low because it doesn't depend on us) I mean not this game at all, because we could have gained something this evening just playing like last year, but it was very foolish,especially for the defending champions, to let this game be an in or out but going out now that we won it would be better than in the last years (07-08,08-09 and 09-10 were absolutely painful for me)
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Post by Soul Wed Nov 21, 2012 3:19 am

I'm not too good at this but I guess these are the scenarios that can could take us to the next round:

Keep in mind that either will only work if we win against Nords

1. Shakthar wins against Juve
We'd go as second place, 1 point above Juve

2. Juve wins against Shakthar
We'd be level on points with Shakthar but we'd need to win by a margin of AT LEAST 5 to go through on Goal Difference

3. Shakthar and Juve draws
We'd need to win by a margin of AT LEAST 7 goals

This is gonna be nerve wrecking..
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Post by Shed Wed Nov 21, 2012 3:25 am

The only scenario that puts us through, just as I stated in my original post on this thread (although I mistakenly mixed Matchdays 5 and 6 up), is us beating Nords and Shakhtar beating Juve, which entirely possible. We're far from out of this yet. If Shakhtar play as well against them as they did against us at home, they're definite favourites to win that match.

The other 2 you mention aren't possible because, as I understand it, it goes by away goals, not GD.
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Post by Soul Wed Nov 21, 2012 3:44 am

Ah thanks for clearing that up
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Post by Kick Thu Nov 22, 2012 12:47 am

Gah! Hello Europa league.
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Post by beatrixasdfghjk. Thu Nov 22, 2012 1:00 pm

ShedEnd1905 wrote:The only scenario that puts us through, just as I stated in my original post on this thread (although I mistakenly mixed Matchdays 5 and 6 up), is us beating Nords and Shakhtar beating Juve, which entirely possible. We're far from out of this yet. If Shakhtar play as well against them as they did against us at home, they're definite favourites to win that match.

The other 2 you mention aren't possible because, as I understand it, it goes by away goals, not GD.
I thought it was head-to-head, not away goals?

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Post by S Thu Nov 22, 2012 1:06 pm

Yup it is counted on the basis of head to head..

But lets consider Chelsea and Shakthar's case for example..Both teams won their home fixtures when pitted against each other..Chelsea won 3-2 whilst Shakthar won 2-1 at their home ground..

So if there's a scenario where both Chelsea and Shakthar end up finishing level on points ,Shakthar will be the ones to progress..Since both teams have won their respective home fixtures the head to head rule goes out of the way and the away goals rule comes into the picture so Shakthar would make it through to the next round in the end since they scored 2 away goals at Stamford Bridge whilst Chelsea scored just 1 at the Donbass Arena.Hope that made it clear for you.
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