Arsenal Stats and Facts Thread

[Jay29]

NEW SEASON STATS ON PAGE 30




Because we all love our stats, right?

Just found this piece on our defence and thought it was worth sharing:

http://t.co/WZ7DZlsw

Arsenal has one of the worst defenses in the league…

….Arsenal has the best starting defenders in Europe

Arsenal’s defense lets them down in big games…

…Arsenal’s starting defense was undefeated against top 8 sides last year

Arsenal ships too many goals…

…Arsenal’s preferred defensive unit conceded the fewest goals per game in recent Premier League history

The negative generalizations listed above probably sound pretty damn familiar to Arsenal fans. Every time we turn on TalkSport or ESPN FC Press Pass, some recently retired player is offering up his considered and entirely unsupported analysis of  Arsenal’s supposedly leaky defense. Worse yet, this analysis is usually offered up as incontrovertible fact.  However, what would you say if we told you that the positive statements regarding the strength of Arsenal’s starting defensive are just as supportable – if not more so – than the negative generalizations we hear so much? Okay, so let’s say you weren’t allowed to swear. What would you say then?

We say that too few among us actually take the time to challenge some of the most widely help “truths” and generalizations in the European game. This series is dedicated to challenging these widely held truths. Today, we challenge the nearly universal opinion that Arsenal, based on the form of 2011-12, are a poor defensive club and require significant upgrade in order to challenge for silverware. First, a quick review:

Heading into the season last, Arsene Wenger was vocally – confident in the group of defenders he’d assembled. He turned away offers for starting-quality English internationals, citing –too much derision – his feeling that he already had an excellent starting unit. In fact, just to be on the safe side, Wenger had acquired a 26-year-old full German national center back in Per Mertersacker and the Brazil international starting left back as cover for his starting four.

Wenger, as usual, was correct in his assessment. Arsenal did possess the best group of starting defenders in the Premier League, at least when healthy. However, the Gunners were struck by a plague biblical in its intensity, and the best laid plans were laid bare as Arsenal lost its top four full-backs for much of the season, while simultaneously battling injuries to Belgian star Thomas Vermaelen and new German backup Mertersacker.

Towards the end of the season, the injured players returned. For a sizeable sample size, Gunners fans were able to appreciate the back four that Wenger had trumpeted back in August. And the Arsenal defense was not only good, it was dominant.

We ask the following: Is Arsenal’s preferred back-line, if reasonably healthy, good enough to challenge for a title? The answer, based on a significant sample size from last year’s season, is a resounding yes. In fact, despite what we are constantly told, Arsenal’s defense was downright dominant when healthy, and in those games against top competition in which Arsenal featured its preferred defenders, the Gunners were the strongest team in the league, period.

Still in disbelief? Fair enough. Let’s take look at how Arsenal performed on the whole last year in games that featured their preferred starting backline of Bacary Sagna, Laurent Kocielny, Thomas Vermaelen and Kieran Gibbs. Let’s also consider games in which Arsenal subbed in a backup for either of the two preferred central defenders.

Judging strictly by average goals allowed per game, here is how Arsenal’s starting defense (+/- one CB) compares to the last five Premier League Champions:

2011-12 Arsenal starting def (vs Top 8; 7 games)                .56 GAA

2008-09 Manchester United                                                        .63 GAA

2011-12 Arsenal starting def          (14 games)                         .71 GAA

2011-12 Manchester City                                                               .76 GAA

2009-10 Chelsea                                                                               .84 GAA

2010-11 Manchester United                                                        .97 GAA

(In addition, please evaluate the attached graphic representation of the Arsenal schedule, in which we removed all games that do not fit the criteria of this argument. The starting defenders are listed by first initial of last name next to the corresponding result.)

http://www.eplindex.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/08/Arsenal-defense.png

Arsenal played 14 league games that met our criteria. Seven of the 14 games took place against competition that finished in the top eight and qualified for European competition. In this data set, Arsenal’s defense and the team as a whole played at a consistent title-winning level.

The Gunners allowed just .71 goals per game and lost just one of the 14 contests. Arsenal shut out Chelsea, Newcastle and Everton (twice). Further, the Gunners defense dominated the eventual Champions Manchester City , blanking the title-winners 1-0 as Laurent Koscielny marked Sergio Aguero completely out of the game and the rest of the Gunners backline frustrated Mario Balotelli into a red card ejection.

More specifically, Arsenal’s first choice defense played at an even higher level when faced with the best competition. In seven games versus top eight competitors, Arsenal was undefeated and took an average of 2.5 points per contest as the Gunners defense allowed a miniscule .56 goals against ratio.

Based on the data in question, the following statements are supportable and accurate within the context of this argument:

• Arsenal’s preferred starting back-line was the stingiest defense in the Premier League last year.
  
• Even when missing one of two preferred central defenders, the Arsenal back-line remained the toughest in the league.
  
• Arsenal’s starting back-line were undefeated against Manchester City, Chelsea, Tottenham, Liverpool and Newcastle.
  
• Arsenal were undefeated and took an average of 2.4 points per game in seven contests against the top 8 when the preferred back-line started.
  
• Arsenal played 14 games in which both full-backs and at least one of two preferred central defenders started. The Gunners lost just once, allowed .71 goals per game, and took an average of 2.1 points per game off opponents.
  
• Arsenal’s preferred starting back-line gave up fewer goals per game than that of the Premier League Champions in all but one of the last five seasons.
  
• Arsenal shutout Chelsea, Manchester City, Newcastle, and Everton in games that featured the Gunners’ first choice (+/- 1) defenders.
  

So now that we’ve seen results from the 14 occasions in which most of Arsenal’s first choice defenders were available, that brings us to the most pressing question: So what? And also:  What would that famous Gooner Billy Beane say about Arsenal’s defensive preparations headed into the 2012-13 season? We’re glad you asked.

In Moneyball, Michael Lewis’ celebrated study of the use of data and market theory in the sports realm, Lewis uses case studies provided by Oakland A’s General Manager Billy Beane to illustrates many of the previously unrecognized truths in sports management. At its core, Moneyball is about the science of assembling a winning team via the most efficient use of available resources.

One of the accepted operating conditions in the sports environment, according to Lewis, is that no matter how well you plan, the team’s ultimate goals cannot be accomplished without a large helping of luck. Inevitably, in a competitive market, the team that ends up winning is also a team that experiences a large portion of luck. Many times, this luck relates to the health of its players.

In an environment with limited resources, managers like Beane and Wenger make value choices on how to distribute funds throughout a squad. Typically, a manager tries to assemble the strongest starting unit possible, and then distributes quality backups throughout the rest of the roster as funds are available.

Regardless of how rich a club may be every manager lives in fear of a plague of injuries. Considering they won the title in the last-minute of the last day of the season, how do we think Manchester City would’ve done if they had been without starting center backs Vincent Kompany and Joleon Lescott for over half of the season? I think it’s fair to say they wouldn’t have won the championship. Manchester United, on the other hand, lost their best defender early in the season. If Vidic had stayed healthy, would that have been enough to keep the title in Red? Perhaps.

At the end of the day, we’re left with little more than hypotheticals and what-ifs. However, if you take nothing else from this column, steal these statistics next time some Talksport @!£hole screams unsupported Arsenal generalizations. Enjoy the incredulous reaction when you state your claim about Arsenal’s superiority. It may be just another generalization, but at least these generalizations are loosely based in fact. Which, these days, is as close to “truth” as we often get.

Sort of confirms that we're not very good defending as a team. In the game against the top eight where we're likely to defend better as a unit, we don't concede as many goals.

[Sri]

Numbers can be viewed in soo many different ways - this was another example of using numbers to base an argument (or refute one).

Nice idea on the thread btw!

[Sina]

Gervinho's 20 attempted take-ons the most in one PL game since Ronaldo in 2006/07 (ta @oilysailor). Completed half of them, for the record.
Godvinho

[RealGunner]

I really really like Gervinho when he takes on players. It's like he is swimming on land lol. However he MUST improve his decision making.

[MJ]

I really really like Gervinho when he takes on players. It's like he is swimming on land lol. However he MUST improve his decision making.

lmao, perfect simile.

[Wilson37]

I really really like Gervinho when he takes on players. It's like he is swimming on land lol. However he MUST improve his decision making.

lmao, perfect simile.

very true.. He will be deadly if he gets his decision making correct....

[Jay29]

Epic bump.

@OptaJoe: 76 - Arsenal have made more tackles than any other team in the Premier League this season. Bold.

Also, we're the only team in England professional league system (from Premier League to Conference North/South) to have not conceded a goal so far. To put that another way, we're the only team out of 158 teams not to concede a goal so far.

[Sri]

Epic bump.

@OptaJoe: 76 - Arsenal have made more tackles than any other team in the Premier League this season. Bold.

Also, we're the only team in England professional league system (from Premier League to Conference North/South) to have not conceded a goal so far. To put that another way, we're the only team out of 158 teams not to concede a goal so far.

Lets hope this doesn't become an epic jinx when the lads return from international break.

[Sina]

chalkboard thingy of that tackle stat from latest game(FFT)

26 successful tackles and 20 interceptions
No individual Arsenal player made more than 4 successful tackles, demonstrating the team approach to defending which means Arsenal are yet to concede a goal this season.

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Matchday 3:
we have conceded 9.7 shots per game.least amount in the league
also
15 Dribbles per game is best in the league
5 through balls pg joint-most (with city)

[MJ]

Arsenal's best two defensive seasons in league history were 1998/99 (17
conceded) and 1990/91 (18 conc). Steve Bould played in both seasons.

[Wilson37]

Arsenal's best two defensive seasons in league history were 1998/99 (17
conceded) and 1990/91 (18 conc). Steve Bould played in both seasons.

[Sina]

http://www.whoscored.com/Blog/fukyhcinyecehibsr8hupw/Show/League-Focus-Average-Premier-League-Team-Ages

A.Villa

Wigan why u no start Ryo

[Sina]

Artetas defensive stats are satisfying

http://www.thefootballfront.blogspot.com/2012/09/premier-league-top-four-xi-1112-season.html

also another thing in that stats comparison is how Szcz had more crosses to catch and punches and verm and kos more aerial duels compared to city players

[Wilson37]

thanks for sharing.. its a great article...
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BTW... see this... this old man..
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[Sina]

Arsenal’s goalkeeping measured pt. 1: what we did well

In terms of passing the ball and “Goalkeeper distribution”, which are in the Arsenal system a form of defense, Szczesny’s numbers are exactly where you expect them to be.

Among goal keepers, Szczesny was second in the League in passing percentage with 70% and 2nd in total passes completed. That’s just behind Swansea’s Vorm at 71% and ahead of Liverpool’s Reina at 70%. However, if you remove free kicks, Vorm was the hands-down most prolific passing goal keeper last season with 706 passes, 209 more than 2nd place Cech of Chelsea. Szczesny comes in at a respectable 487 non-dead ball passes, good enough for fourth. I expect to see this pure passing number climb for Szczesny now that Arteta is playing in the deep lying midfield position, much like Brendan Rodgers had Joe Allen do for the Swans last term.

In the final third, Szcz only misplaced 13 total passes all season, again, the same number as Vorm and with a completed passing rate of 97% it doesn’t really matter whether it’s tops in the League or not, just so long as it’s not 84% like Paul Robinson. Just to give an illustration of how important that number is to Arsenal: if Szczesny had only completed 84% of the passes in his own final third, and given the number of passes that he attempted, that would have meant 74 misplaced passes in his own area. In fact, accounting for all passes in his own half, Szczesny passed the ball at a 91% rate which was second best in the League and meant that his defense didn’t have to worry about the keeper’s distribution behind them.

I actually shouldn’t use “distribution” in that last sentence because it’s a term of art for keepers and refers to their rolling the ball out, punting it away, or goal kicks. Again we see a familiar cast of characters topping the list in terms of distribution percentage; Reina is number 1 at 79%, Szczesny is 2 at 75%, and Vorm is tied for 3rd with 72%.

In his sweeper-keeper role, Szczesny led the League in keeper clearances with 49 last season and won the second most number of duels (tackles and aerial headers) behind Vorm. All of the keepers who play for the top teams are forced into duels and Szczesny did well in all of his attempts, winning 3 headed clearances (2nd behind Begovich), 1 last man tackle (tied for first with Begovich and Reina), and only conceded 21 corners all season. A number which is good enough for 7th best on the list.

And finally, Szczesny was outstanding in what people often refer to as “commanding his area”. This is typically measured in how often a keeper comes out and claims a cross or high ball off the opposition’s corner or dead ball situation. Szczesny led the league in successful punches with 27 and was 9th overall in total catches with 50. Once he does try to catch the ball, he’s very sure handed with just two dropped balls all last season. Arsenal weren’t tested the most off crosses and set plays into the box, that was Wolves’ Hennessey with 2.59 per game but Szczesny did have to deal with over 2 per game which puts him nearly 25% more per game than De Gea and Hart. And considering that possession numbers for Man City were similar to Arsenal that’s a significant challenge to the young Pole. One which did well to deal with managing an overall 3rd best 93% claim rate.

Wojciech Szczesny is very much the type of keeper that Arsene Wenger’s system demands: someone who fits into the possession type offense and can recycle the ball very efficiently in his own half (91%). Szczesny also does the job as last defender (clearing the ball and making last ditch tackles, etc) when Arsenal press for the winning goal — though some will say he was called upon to do this too often last term, a point we will examine in the next article. Where Szczesny has started to endear himself to the Arsenal faithful is in the way he controls the 6 yard box on corners and other set plays. Arsenal grew a reputation for a soft touch on set pieces over the last few years which will take time to overcome. Based on Szczesny’s performance last season, and some of the defensive organization this season, the club are well down that road. West Ham on October 6th will surely test that supposition.

7amkickoff

[Jay29]

Thought I'd maintain a list of goalscorers and providers:

NB: Numbers in brackets represent, in the following order, Premier League, Champions League, FA Cup and the Capital One Cup.

Goalscorers
Gervinho - 3 (2, 1, 0, 0)
Lukas Podolski - 3 (2, 1, 0, 0)
Own Goal - 2 (2, 0, 0, 0)
Santi Cazorla - 1 (1, 0, 0, 0)
Theo Walcott - 1 (1, 0 0, 0)

Providers
Santi Cazorla - 2 (2, 0, 0, 0)
Lukas Podolski - 2 (2, 0, 0, 0)
Mikel Arteta - 1 (1, 0, 0, 0)
Olivier Giroud - 1 (0, 1, 0, 0)
Carl Jenkinson - 1 (0, 1, 0, 0)
Aaron Ramsey - 1 (1, 0, 0, 0)

[Sina]

Disciplinary Record so far
we have picked up 2 yellows only second best to Norwich with 1
also only Southampton with 7.8 Per Game has conceded fewer fouls than us(8 PG)

[Rev]

The good guys of the league are back.
Last year's disciplinary record made us look like thugs, but with our improved defense we concede less silly fouls, thus reducing the amount of possible FK's against us. Think this is just another element which improved our defense so significantly.

[Sina]

On this day in 2002 Gilberto Silva scored the fastest-ever Champions League goal, after just 19 seconds, in Arsenal's 4-0 win over PSV.

[Jay29]

I've updated the goalscorers list. Will have to wait for the highlights before I can update the assists list.

NB: Numbers in brackets represent, in the following order, Premier League, Champions League, FA Cup and the Capital One Cup.

Goalscorers
Gervinho - 3 (2, 1, 0, 0)
Theo Walcott - 3 (1, 0 0, 2)
Lukas Podolski - 3 (2, 1, 0, 0)
Own Goal - 2 (2, 0, 0, 0)
Andrey Arshavin - 1 (0, 0, 0, 1)
Santi Cazorla - 1 (1, 0, 0, 0)
Alex Chamberlain - 1 (0, 0, 0, 1)
Olivier Giroud - 1 (0, 0, 0, 1)
Laurent Koscielny - 1 (1, 0, 0, 0)
Ignasi Miquel - 1 (0, 0, 0, 1)

Providers
Andrey Arshavin - 2 (0, 0, 0, 2)
Santi Cazorla - 2 (2, 0, 0, 0)
Olivier Giroud - 2 (0, 1, 0, 1)
Lukas Podolski - 2 (2, 0, 0, 0)
Mikel Arteta - 1 (1, 0, 0, 0)
Francis Coquelin - 1 (0, 0, 0, 1)
Carl Jenkinson - 1 (0, 1, 0, 0)
Aaron Ramsey - 1 (1, 0, 0, 0)
Nico Yennaris - 1 (0, 0, 0, 1)

[Wilson37]

good work Jay... keep updating.. easy way to have a glance..
Btw.. why dont u edit it and add this in the first post so it will be easy to view as the thread grows...

[Jay29]

Updated stats after tonight (and the Chelsea game):

NB: Numbers in brackets represent, in the following order, Premier League, Champions League, FA Cup and the Capital One Cup.

Goalscorers
Gervinho - 5 (3, 2, 0, 0)
Lukas Podolski - 4 (2, 2, 0, 0)
Theo Walcott - 3 (1, 0 0, 2)
Own Goal - 2 (2, 0, 0, 0)
Andrey Arshavin - 1 (0, 0, 0, 1)
Santi Cazorla - 1 (1, 0, 0, 0)
Alex Chamberlain - 1 (0, 0, 0, 1)
Olivier Giroud - 1 (0, 0, 0, 1)
Laurent Koscielny - 1 (1, 0, 0, 0)
Ignasi Miquel - 1 (0, 0, 0, 1)
Aaron Ramsey - 1 (0, 1, 0, 0)

Providers
Olivier Giroud - 3 (0, 2, 0, 1)
Andrey Arshavin - 2 (0, 0, 0, 2)
Mikel Arteta - 2 (1, 1, 0, 0)
Santi Cazorla - 2 (2, 0, 0, 0)
Lukas Podolski - 2 (2, 0, 0, 0)
Francis Coquelin - 1 (0, 0, 0, 1)
Gervinho - 1 (0, 1, 0, 0)
Carl Jenkinson - 1 (0, 1, 0, 0)
Aaron Ramsey - 1 (1, 0, 0, 0)
Nico Yennaris - 1 (0, 0, 0, 1)

[RealGunner]

Giroud the next fabregas

[urbaNRoots]

Opta ‏@OptaJoe
5 - Gervinho has scored five goals from just five shots on target in all competitions this season. Gleaming.

[Rev]

Giroud following the path of the original false playmaker 9, Torres.

Gervinho should get our Player of the Month award.

His transition period is over, now he's ready to beast this league.

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