Messi's, Müller's, Pelé's goal scoring seasons era adjusted

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Messi's, Müller's, Pelé's goal scoring seasons era adjusted Empty Messi's, Müller's, Pelé's goal scoring seasons era adjusted

Post by Harmonica Wed Jun 13, 2012 2:00 pm

Messi broke this season all time world record of goal scoring for a club, 73. How does this compare to other high goal scoring seasons of past greats? 67 Gerd Müller 72-73 was a European record for 39 years before Messi broke it. Pelé’s best goal scoring season was 1958 when he scored 66 goals.

But which of these incredible goal scoring seasons is the best one? Like, first glance you would say Pele’s and Müller’s seasons were better, because they played less games and had better goals per game ratio:

Messi 73/60 = 1,22 goals per game

Müller 67/49 = 1,37 goals per game

Pelé 66/46 = 1,43 goals per game

But then again, back then scoring was more of a premium than preventing goals, than nowadays. So it was easier to score on average and goals were scored in higher averages. Example Müller scored 12 of his 67 goals in DFP Ligapokal competition, were goal scoring average was 7.75. almost 8 per game! That’s pretty insane.

So how do you measure so different situations, so different times? One viable method to examine these is the so called era adjusting, used widely also in sports, to compare goal totals in different eras. It basicly takes into account both of the previous arguments, goal scoring averages, and amount of games played.

First you take the average number of goals scored in the particular competitions players played, and compare them to the particular player. From this you get the era adjustment ratio. Then you compare the amount of games played, which you get the schedule adjustment ratio. The overall ratio you get when you multiply: era adjustment ratio x schedule ratio.

In this table we have era adjusted statistics of Messi’s, Müller’s and Pelé’s, which would suggest that Messi’s current season actually was the best goal scoring season of them all:

Messi's, Müller's, Pelé's goal scoring seasons era adjusted Era-adjusted-2

Notes and data

http://king-football.com/bb/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/era-adjusted.png

http://king-football.com/bb/?p=446

Full season stats updated.
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Post by free_cat Wed Jun 13, 2012 2:28 pm

Very interesting. Another nail for Messi to go as the best ever.
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Post by guest7 Wed Jun 13, 2012 2:32 pm

Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing Laughing
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Post by Forza Wed Jun 13, 2012 2:39 pm

Messi 73/60 = 1,22 goals per game
Müller 67/49 = 1,37 goals per game
Pelé 66/46 = 1,43 goals per game

That is all.

I don't think era adjustment is viable at all. There's clear difference is quality between various 'eras', but you can't just churn out a number that will accurately take this into account and prove that a player is, at least statistically, better or worse than another. There are some situations where it would just be better if people watched the games and then compared players without the intrusion of statistics.

This is one of them. :coffee:
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Post by la bestia negra Wed Jun 13, 2012 2:41 pm

The point of this thread
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Post by billionmillion Wed Jun 13, 2012 2:49 pm

if jiopsi didnt have timing problem he would be the best poster here
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Post by S32TABLANCA Wed Jun 13, 2012 3:01 pm

Era adjustment Laughing
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Post by Harmonica Wed Jun 13, 2012 3:12 pm

So, rightback it is? Rolling Eyes
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Post by jibers Wed Jun 13, 2012 3:30 pm

Jiopsi, I like you, you've turned from annoying troll to an informative poster, but this is a load of bullshite. Era adjusted...are you kidding me...
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Post by Harmonica Wed Jun 13, 2012 3:35 pm

jibers wrote:Jiopsi, I like you, you've turned from annoying troll to an informative poster, but this is a load of bullshite. Era adjusted...are you kidding me...
How exactly? I understand the logic behind it, and trust me there is a logic behind it. That's why it is used widely.
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Post by Lord Hades Wed Jun 13, 2012 3:37 pm

used widely lol what? its impossible to put up an accurate number by taking into account the quality of various eras
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Post by Forza Wed Jun 13, 2012 3:38 pm

jiopsi wrote:So, rightback it is? Rolling Eyes
It's like the relegation zone of GL these days.
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Post by Harmonica Wed Jun 13, 2012 3:42 pm

Forza Rossoneri wrote:
jiopsi wrote:So, rightback it is? Rolling Eyes
It's like the relegation zone of GL these days.
When the Löw's boogies and Cronaldos hair are the grand jewels of the more intelligent discussions in the general section. Laughing
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Post by Forza Wed Jun 13, 2012 4:07 pm

jiopsi wrote:
Forza Rossoneri wrote:
jiopsi wrote:So, rightback it is? Rolling Eyes
It's like the relegation zone of GL these days.
When the Löw's boogies and Cronaldos hair are the grand jewels of the more intelligent discussions in the general section. Laughing
There is room for humour amongst serious talk. My analogy was reflecting the relative traffic this section receives compared to the gen sec and now the Euro section.
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Post by Harmonica Wed Jun 13, 2012 4:16 pm

Forza Rossoneri wrote:
jiopsi wrote:
Forza Rossoneri wrote:
jiopsi wrote:So, rightback it is? Rolling Eyes
It's like the relegation zone of GL these days.
When the Löw's boogies and Cronaldos hair are the grand jewels of the more intelligent discussions in the general section. Laughing
There is room for humour amongst serious talk. My analogy was reflecting the relative traffic this section receives compared to the gen sec and now the Euro section.
Of course there is. The Löw's can pass as humour, but example the Cronaldo one is completely pointless, it's not even mildly funny. It's just that when there is some thought and time used to the OP, somebody gets offended by the results and bang, lets burry it to the trash. Sad Mad Cool Laughing
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Post by Forza Wed Jun 13, 2012 4:21 pm

jiopsi wrote:
Forza Rossoneri wrote:
jiopsi wrote:
Forza Rossoneri wrote:
jiopsi wrote:So, rightback it is? Rolling Eyes
It's like the relegation zone of GL these days.
When the Löw's boogies and Cronaldos hair are the grand jewels of the more intelligent discussions in the general section. Laughing
There is room for humour amongst serious talk. My analogy was reflecting the relative traffic this section receives compared to the gen sec and now the Euro section.
Of course there is. The Löw's can pass as humour, but example the Cronaldo one is completely pointless, it's not even mildly funny. It's just that when there is some thought and time used to the OP, somebody gets offended by the results and bang, lets burry it to the trash. Sad Mad Cool Laughing
I think the CR thread has good potential for some laughs. It's just a caption thread for one player, there have been far worse threads made.
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Post by kiranr Wed Jun 13, 2012 5:51 pm


If the number of goals per games was greater in the previous eras then doesn't this indicate that it was easier to score goals at that time?

Is there point that suggests the above is not the case?
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Post by Potential Wed Jun 13, 2012 5:52 pm

Another useless statistic by jiopsi, I wonder if he'll ever learn...
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Post by Harmonica Wed Jun 13, 2012 6:03 pm

kiranr wrote:
If the number of goals per games was greater in the previous eras then doesn't this indicate that it was easier to score goals at that time?

Is there point that suggests the above is not the case?
That's basically it, the adjustment compares player to the average player of the era. The result suggests that Messi is currently more impressive goal scorer than Müller and Pele in their record seasons.
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Post by The Verminator Thu Jun 14, 2012 3:08 am

So i guess that we can say in this era its harder to score in, so we can make messi look better, but nobody is taking into consideration the fact that athletes of today are also much more finely tuned than they ever were. Surely this would have some sort of effect?
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Post by Sushi Master Thu Jun 14, 2012 3:27 am

If we apply a fair Era Adjustment, HGH treatments weren't available in the 60s or 70s.

So Messi fails as a footballer and joins the circus.

Win, Müller/Pelé.

Messi's, Müller's, Pelé's goal scoring seasons era adjusted Trolldolski
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Post by Harmonica Thu Jun 14, 2012 7:26 am

The Verminator wrote:So i guess that we can say in this era its harder to score in, so we can make messi look better, but nobody is taking into consideration the fact that athletes of today are also much more finely tuned than they ever were. Surely this would have some sort of effect?
Of course they are, but everybody are more finely tuned, forwards, midfielders, defenders and goalkeepers. Tactics are also more on point in every department, and better than in them days. But none of this really matters, because we are comparing goal scoring averages, and it doesn't really matter why they were scoring more goals back then, or less now. The adjustment compares goal scorer to the average goal scorer of its era, and with that comparison, Messi's goal haul is in relation, further distance of the average goal scorer, or in other words, more impressive at its time.
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Post by The Verminator Thu Jun 14, 2012 10:12 pm

The point i was gonna make is that strikers imo are benefitting more from todays technology to build them into finer athletes than defenders. I believe it to be true but i can't really explain why, can't put it in words. But i realized that it's not really a valid arguement because if that was the case then we should see an abundance of goals being scored, more so than today. Of course that's not the case because of the tactics being employed nowadays. So yea, forget about what i said earlier, it doesn't really help my arguement......
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Post by kiranr Fri Jun 15, 2012 4:34 am


Atleast you are arguing rationally and giving reasons for your claim Verm.

None of the others who have discredited era-adjustment have given a valid reason.

p.s. Sushi gave a valid reason though Very Happy
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Post by Forza Fri Jun 15, 2012 8:20 am

kiranr wrote:
Atleast you are arguing rationally and giving reasons for your claim Verm.

None of the others who have discredited era-adjustment have given a valid reason.

p.s. Sushi gave a valid reason though Very Happy
I did.
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