Barcelona cannot win the CL

by BarrileteCosmico Wed Mar 21, 2012 2:13 am

While I was hopeful for most of the season that the CL would be our saving grace I am now becoming more and more concerned about our CL possibilities, to the point where I believe it is simply wrong to consider us the favorites of the tournament. (I do not know who the favorite should be, but it is not us). Barcelona have earned their reputation as the favorites because we win with a spectacular brand of football, and we have done so consistently. Our good record against Madrid and in the CL so far shows that we definitely have the quality to do it, not to mention that Messi will very likely break the 60 goal barrier, an unbelievable record. However, I believe this has clouded some people's judgement as to the reality of FC Barcelona. There are several areas that concern me, let's look at them one by one.

Statistical Impossibility
No CL winning side has been able to repeat their success 2 years in a row in the CL era. Not one. Not even Barca. Certainly this stat alone disqualifies us from having the status of favorites, but let's look at the possible reasons for why this might be. The causes for this statistic vary in great detail from team to team, but in a team like Barca the key is that Barca know they are the best. Note that this is not an attack on hunger, only overconfidence. Barca's hunger for titles cannot be disputed, but Barca may understimate the opposition after 3+ years of winning. They have already shown worrying sings of complacency, which I find is correlated with overconfidence (lack of fear), throughout the entire league season. In fact, if each game had stopped at half time Barca would be leading the table by 9 points right now. This might cause us to play at 97% capacity, or slightly below the optimal level, and that 3% difference is enough to produce an upset.

Squad Unfit to Cope with Current Injuries & Challenges
The attacking injury troubles are well known. Villa has been sidelined for the rest of the season. Afellay has only now recovered from a 6 month injury, is not yet recovered for match fitness and it remains to be seen how well he will play after being in the sidelines for so long. Pedro, while match fit, has shown that he has not been able to return to his pre-injury levels and has recurrent injuries. Alexis has been injured three times already this season, which does not give me confidence he will 100% be able to avoid injury before the end of the season.

The previous injuries, some more serious than others, have caused us to promote Cuenca and Tello, and while both players have performed their roles beyond the highest expectations, they do not have the quality to tear up the sides of the best in Europe. The fact of the matter is that had it not been for Messi, who continues to be sublime, Barca would struggle to score goals. In fact, when Messi has gone through (short) dry spells we have lost points.

That being said, Barca is also particularly vulnerable in the defense. We have lost Abidal to an organ transplant, and while no news outlets has used the C word his case strongly points in that direction. Puyol has been injured more games than not this season. The same goes for Adriano, who has picked up a 10 day injury today. This leaves the defense as Dani Alves - Pique - Mascherano - Puyol right now, with one of them being very injury prone in old age. Not to mention they cannot be rotated due to the lack of options, which both increases the risk of lower performance (to an already dismal Pique) and of higher injury risk due to exhaustion. All the replacements available are untested at top level. This does not give me confidence in our backline for the remainder of the season.

Randomness
In theory, the higher one goes along the CL the tighter the games are. This presents a problem for Barca, who have been especially unlucky this season. The games Barca will play will be close, with one or two goal margins at best. As a result the decisions taken by the officials will be magnified and play a decisive part on who goes through. Barca was lucky in their first CL under Pep, unlucky in the second, lucky in the third, and now we're in the fourth. The law of averages states that we will be screwed, as we currently are in the league (not a conspiracy theory, just a fact).

So for the reasons previously explained, I think Barca right now are hugely overrated as far as their CL chances are concerned. Chances are we will not win, I cannot see it happening, talent is not enough. It is statistically unlikely, we do not have a deep enough squad for the current situation and we're simply unlucky this year.

I see Barca's campaign this year ending much like Madrid's last year: Cup and top goal scorer, not much else.

by Rebaño Sagrado Wed Mar 21, 2012 2:17 am

these mind games won't work :coffee:

by BarrileteCosmico Wed Mar 21, 2012 2:37 am

I am not Huntsman :coffee:

by jibers Wed Mar 21, 2012 2:49 am

BC i think that the biggest problem is the sheer games that these players have to play. You might ot think they mean much but they do. Barcelona players had to play the spanish supercup 2 games, the CWC 2 games, the european supercup 1 game, they had to play all rounds of the copa, are deep in the cl and as much as they wouldnt want to admit ity they are fighting for the league. These games have a cumulative effect. Now Barcelona player are looking very susceptible to injury bar the GOAT. Cesc will have injuries, ini and Asexis looking like they will have reoccuring problems. All these things add up that will test your already paper thin squad. I remember when United played Barcelona in 09, the equivalent United player had played like 8+ more games, you might think, o thats nothing, but it is something. Your team was looking really tired last year at the closing stages, God help you this season as you have played far more games...

by andiii Wed Mar 21, 2012 3:14 am

wtf haha. the only teams left in the competition worth a damn are RM and BM. ofc barcelona are favourites

by Dutti Wed Mar 21, 2012 3:22 am

Statistics is not a law.

Can't use that to rule out Barcelona's chances of winning again for the second time in a row.

by Swanhends Wed Mar 21, 2012 3:39 am

these arent the droids youre looking for hmm

by Le Samourai Wed Mar 21, 2012 4:05 am

Stop killing Xavi and Ini FFS THEY ARE NEEDED IN THE SUMMER.

Xavi has just played too many games in the last 5 seasons.........

by Lord Hades Wed Mar 21, 2012 9:00 am

one reverse jinx that wont work :coffee:

by guest7 Wed Mar 21, 2012 9:47 am

It gives me hope that both Xavi and Iniesta has been really injury prone this season.

Iniesta has started like 7 La Liga games lol... That's very little. Sanchez, Adriano etc. are all injury prone. All that is required is a Messi injury and your season is over. You've no consistent goalscorer other than him.

But it will be hard for you to lose the title this season. Milan can win you, but I doubt it in a 2 legged tie... Seems like no team in the world can do it. If we go to the final, I can see us possibly win it like we did in Copa Del Rey. Casillas has never let the ball past him in a final but at the same time Messi has scored in almost every final he has played Razz

However, saying you're not the favourites is just wrong. I doubt you will be overconfident in CL, that is close to retarded if so. I know Pep is capable of starting your engines when it really matters.