Brexit: Should the UK stay or go?

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Post by RealGunner on Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:03 pm

Current BBC forecast for the voting tomorrow

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Post by CBarca on Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:11 pm

So is there a chance this thing actually passes...?

That vote looks pretty close. But as I recall it, May's deal was rejected by historic margins. Why would it be different this time?

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Post by RealGunner on Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:14 pm

Because this is it. No more extension. Either no deal or this shit deal.

Yea it all depends on the undecided and the rebels now.
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Post by CBarca on Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:21 pm

What time is this occurring tomorrow?

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Post by Hapless_Hans on Fri Oct 18, 2019 7:43 pm

@RealGunner wrote:Because this is it. No more extension. Either no deal or this shit deal.

Yea it all depends on the undecided and the rebels now.


What's shit about the deal in your opinion?
(Honest question, I have no clue whatsoever about the details apart from the 'backstop' question, and I don't know what constitutes a good or a bad deal for the different parties)

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Post by futbol_bill on Fri Oct 18, 2019 8:54 pm

As I understand it?? It’s the May deal again with a few small adjustments. The biggest change is NI which seems like they remain in EU for all intensive purposes and sounds like it may lead to a United Ireland in future, as part of EU.

I think the vote comes down to take this deal or go for another referendum which polls say will be for remain. I say the no deal is not acceptable and EU is basically saying this is the best deal you will get. If they reject this deal and also parliament say no deal is off, then EU would give them an extension for election or referendum.

By the way if this leads to a United Ireland, you can count on another referendum to allow Scotland to pursue same EU route..

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Post by Unique on Fri Oct 18, 2019 9:17 pm

you wont see a united ireland.

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Post by futbol_bill on Fri Oct 18, 2019 10:24 pm

Why do you think that? Everything I have read says the opposite!
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Post by Unique on Fri Oct 18, 2019 10:30 pm

@futbol_bill wrote:Why do you think that? Everything I have read says the opposite!
the catholics and protestants will never live together in peace. religion divides like always.

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Post by Hapless_Hans on Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:13 am

You've got to hand it to Johnson, he is one shameless and insolent motherfucker Laughing

After being openly hostile, confrontational, derisive and insulting to parliament last time, when he tried to close it down and then defended prorogation after being struck down in court, ostentatviely repeating his "surrender bill" line etc, even blatantly insulting the memory of a MP who was shot to death over the issue-

-today he's all father-of-the-nation, let's-come-together, National Health service bla bla, healing divisions etc Laughing
"I am disappointed by the tone the leader of the opposition has taken.."

He is disappointed by the tone ?! lmao what an absolutely shameless POS

and I think he will get away with it.
Don't see how the opposition can vote against the deal in light of the situation things have been manouvered into

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Post by Hapless_Hans on Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:40 am

Because what's the play?

The opposition focused on the no-deal scenario, and making sure no-deal is prevented, making a law that would force asking for an extension in case of no deal.
The thinking, in large parts (not the 'rebels', but the actual opposition), surely was that this way there would be an extension and then the possibility to beat Johnson in an election?

Now, Johnson managed a new deal (even if it's not an accomplishment from his base's POV, but a decisively worse deal for them, if they are Unionists, for example? Do I understand that right?), and the inclination of the BS right-wingers to fall in line and drink the Kool-Aid is always bigger than that of many on the left, who have being critical and unobservant written into their political philosophy.

So the opposition basically overestimated Johnson's desire for no-deal, and underestimated his capacity to flip-flop, as well as his capacity to sell this flip-flopping to his hard-line base?

And EU won't accept another extension with the purpose to renegotiate now? So the Benn Act has been nullified with this new deal, even if its newness is a sham?

Now the ones voting against the bill are more directly voting for no-deal, in terms of optics and messaging, no?

What can they do? Insert stuff into the bill to necessitate a popular vote, for example?

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Post by Hapless_Hans on Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:47 am

"fishing has a glorious future in this country"

Johnson lmao

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Post by Hapless_Hans on Sat Oct 19, 2019 10:53 am

Now you have Labour MPs asking the Prime Minister to 'apologize to the DUP and the conservative Tories' for creating a border in the Irish sea

As I wrote above, they're correct of course about what a monumental bullshitter Boris is.
But if that's their play, if that's the line of argumentation they want to pursue, they're fucking clowns.

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Post by Hapless_Hans on Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:20 am

Ok so I probably should have informed myself before starting to watch the debate and write about it

apparently the play is to add an amendment which would require passing all actual withdrawal laws before the House votes to approve the deal, which would revive the Benn Act and force Johnson to ask for an extension while he tries to get the bills passed

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Post by iftikhar on Sat Oct 19, 2019 11:45 am

Would someone please summarize what the new deal is different about?
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Post by Hapless_Hans on Sat Oct 19, 2019 12:34 pm

Shadow minister for Brexit making a very strong case against the deal

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Post by Unique on Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:12 pm

Boris is a very smart man. He's turned this into his deal or no deal so he wins no matter what. He played fools like Corbyn like a big bass drum ffs Very Happy Very Happy

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Post by RealGunner on Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:21 pm

You do know that Corbyn is pro-leave right lol?

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Post by CBarca on Sat Oct 19, 2019 2:55 pm

So it sounds like MP's just passed an amendment that means UK will not leave October 31st?

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Post by Unique on Sat Oct 19, 2019 4:03 pm

@RealGunner wrote:You do know that Corbyn is pro-leave right lol?

Corbyn is blocking every path he can for us to leave. What he says and what he does are very different things. All he wants to do is wreck Brexit so he can get to become PM. He was telling people not to vote for a deal no matter what the deal is. Now does that sound like a man that wants to leave. I hope we leave without a deal tbh. Didn't Johnson say today that the law didn't compel him to ask for an extension. He must know a way to get round the new law.

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Post by Harmonica on Sat Oct 19, 2019 5:17 pm

GTFO from my union already. Mad

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Post by RealGunner on Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:25 pm

@Unique wrote:
@RealGunner wrote:You do know that Corbyn is pro-leave right lol?

Corbyn is blocking every path he can for us to leave. What he says and what he does are very different things. All he wants to do is wreck Brexit so he can get to become PM. He was telling people not to vote for a deal no matter what the deal is. Now does that sound like a man that wants to leave. I hope we leave without a deal tbh. Didn't Johnson say today that the law didn't compel him to ask for an extension. He must know a way to get round the new law.


He is only doing that because Labour will oppose everything conservatives want by default. It will show weakness to agree with them and a leader of opposition absolutely cannot agree with the opposition.

Corbyn himself has always been pro leave.
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Post by RealGunner on Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:26 pm

@CBarca wrote:So it sounds like MP's just passed an amendment that means UK will not leave October 31st?


Yea. Letwin amendment means brexit vote will happen next week now.
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Post by RealGunner on Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:35 pm

Looks like a 3 months brexit delay might happen due to this too.

Lol

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Post by futbol_bill on Sat Oct 19, 2019 6:52 pm

So let’s put facts on table rather than repeating the various rhetoric!

The so called deal is the May deal with a few minor changes.

EU is still saying that this deal is the best they will agree to, as they said with May deal. In other words they view the two deals virtually the same.

With today’s past resolution, Boris must ask for an extension.

The passed vote today says they won’t vote on Boris deal until all aspects pertaining to its implementation have been agreed by parliament.

A no deal has also been ruled out by parliament.

EU is not likely to grant an extension if it is to try to renegotiate a different deal.



That means that Johnson has no choice but to request an extension and he will try try to get approval for this slightly altered May deal.

So nothing changes for now and likely date moved back.

The choices are coming down to accept the deal that is in front of you, hold a new election or hold a new referendum.
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Post by VivaStPauli on Sun Oct 20, 2019 1:48 pm

Well, the "minor changes" are quite bad for the UK, so really looking forward to see how Johnson will try and spin this. I mean he'll probably just outright lie, and because that will cause confusion people will be "unsure what to believe", at which point he'll use the chaos to just squirrel away and try something new.
Just look at unique, poor fella can't even coherently state what he himself believes, or what he thinks Johnson believes. Right-wing populism is basically macro-psychological wizardry by now, people just can't follow what's going on so they end up just agreeing with the people feeding them the most agreeable trigger words.

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