Venezuela on the verge of collapse

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Venezuela on the verge of collapse Empty Venezuela on the verge of collapse

Post by Pedram Fri May 20, 2016 1:23 pm

Venezuela has been teetering on the edge of political and economic disaster for some time now.

But the situation hit a critical point on Wednesday as Venezuela's political opposition called for massive protests on the heels of President Maduro's declaration of a 60-day state of emergency over so-called "plots from Venezuela and the United States to subvert him."

And it doesn't seem like things will be improving in the near-term.

"With every passing day, Venezuela, the most imperiled [oil] producer, moves closed to the brink of a political and economic meltdown," RBC Capital Markets' head of commodity strategy Helima Croft wrote in a note.

"Political challenges and mounting debt continue to stress an already challenging situation and there appears to be no end in sight."

Venezuela, an OPEC member which has the largest oil reserves in the world, has been struggling with ongoing political, security, and economic issues.

On the economic front, things went south after oil prices collapsed in 2014. The country heavily relies on the commodity for its export revenues, and also previously relied on oil's higher prices to funded many of the government's social programs. Most notably, a bombshell New York Times report elucidated how the country's economic crisis has led to a huge public-health emergency.

Venezuela has also been suffering from water and electricity cuts amid a prolonged drought. The government has come up with some unorthodox strategies to combat the situation — such as changing the daylight savings time, urging women to cut use of hairdryers to save electricity, and forcing holidays for state employees.

And on top of all that, Venezuela has also been struggling with security issues. The country still has one of the highest murder rates in the world, and has seen episodes of vigilante violence.

Most recently, the Associated Press's Hannah Dreier reported how a 42-year old Venezuelan man was burned alive over $5 dollars — but "amid the general haze of violence, [his] killing didn't even stand out enough to make the front pages or provoke comment from local politicians."

Unfortunately, the country's economic future does not look good.

Croft also detailed that the country is now also flirting with a potential debt crisis in the back half of the year.

As she explained in a note to clients:

"...the state-owned oil company PDVSA faces a $1.3 billion debt payment in October and an additional $2.9 billion one in November. Maduro may already be making contingency plans for a PDVSA default. In February, the government announced the creation of a new military controlled oil and mining company, which some analysts speculate could be used to strip the PDVSA assets in the event of default or bankruptcy."

As for the larger scheme of things, data from the central bank suggests that Venezuela's gross domestic product contracted by 5.7% in 2015, and International Monetary Fund figures suggest that it will shrink by 8% in 2016.

Meanwhile, inflation is expected to rise from a world high of 275% in 2015 to a mind-blowing 720% in 2016, according to a January estimate from the IMF.

And because of this insanely high inflation, Venezuela is likely to once again be the most "miserable" country in the world. (Arthur Okun's "Misery Index" adds together a country's unemployment and inflation rates. The higher the number, the more "miserable" a country is.)

What's happening in this country, why are they in such a mess ?
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Post by Hapless_Hans Fri May 20, 2016 1:42 pm

counter-revolutionary infiltrators and saboteurs
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Post by rincon Fri May 20, 2016 6:56 pm

Unmeasurable, free-flowing corruption by the government.

Its 16 years of stealing money from the state without reinvesting. That plus stripping the country of any means of production by nationalizing everything to provide quick fixes for the people before eventually running companies to the ground. This lead to the country relying exclusively on imports, which is nonviable when the money runs out (because of corruption and no exports).

Nothing to do with infiltrators or saboteurs Laughing
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Post by Guest Sat May 21, 2016 12:21 pm

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Post by Sushi Master Fri Jun 10, 2016 6:50 am

Sadly, this isn't just the government's fault.

It's a whole frakking donkey's dilated anus overall.

Yes, Maduro is a grade A useless and incompetent idiot, but then again, he's just continuing Chavez' "legacy". He was frakking voted in as the handpicked guy (Chavez must have been drugged from all that chemo during that) to succeed him and the whole 'Revolutionary' bullshit. But no. Those assholes we have imploding the country were all voted in gleefully by batshit crazy fanatics, fearful people wanting to keep their jobs since the government controls pretty much everything, poor and uneducated souls who think because the government gives them a bag of rice and two cartons of milk are superior to any other form of government... As a Venezuelan: it's our frakking fault. And I've never even voted for those assholes, but I cannot deny the support they've always gotten. Oh, well, till now that is because most families do not have the luxury of frakking eating every day or wiping their ass with dignity.

17 years of this basically amount to a lost generation. There are a slew of problems here, but the core of everything is an utterly disgusting and degenerative culture. People here laugh of North Americans/Europeans/Even fellow Latins and their supposedly "zombie" lifestyle. Because we're alive, man. We party and shit and live decently. Well, guess what: it's all bullshit and the bubble burst long ago and there's no way out... We're frakking lazy. We don't like to work. We're not honest. We don't give two fraks where you get your money, even if you, me, and every fraking one knows that the system is broke and NO ONE GIVES A SHIT. We just figure out the easiest way to make by, and that's it. In that we're the geniuses of the planet. The famous maraña. You're a doctor? Well, officially you get paid shit, so you tell your patients that they have to pay extra, on the side, for the regulated medicines you will not find, because they've already been bought by guys who live off reselling everything and anything on the blackmarket. There are places, hell, people put kiosks on the street where they resell pretty much anything that is scarce which is everything. Literally. I've gone 4 months wiping my ass with baby wipes because I can't and will not do a big ass line for toilet paper. Sorry, I do not have the time nor the patience. Course, I was blessed with a very good job which even paid me part in pure dollars (we have a frakked fixed currency exchange rate) so I'm in semi-bourgeois territory compared to 90% of the population, more so my age. But the rest? Well, either you pay up exaggerated prices or you queue up like a sheep and spend your day in the blistering sun, wasting away because your children don't have anything to eat or diapers to soil, buying at legally subsidized prices, because you only earn $15 a month, the minimum wage, or let me say: the only wage for like 90% of the population.

What, $15 you say? That's right, because due to subsidizing everything, what's left of any half decent business more often have to produce at a loss. So, engineer? Minimum wage. Lawyer? Minimum wage. Army recruit? Minimum wage. Taxi driver? Heeey, like 10 minimum wages. The frak did I graduate from med school, bro? Let's resell subsidized products to the elite and cab drive on the afternoons. Aaand the government has nationalized pretty much any foreign and even local companies with a previously successful track record to their oh so impressive business model... Yeah, you can figure that out.

Which brings me to the second point... corruption. Jesus on a tricycle, there's another thing we're the alpha males of. But... we don't see it that way. What? Morals? Like, isn't that bad, mommy? No. I'm on minimum wage, remember? How am I supposed to like, save up money or take my girl to the movies or buy resold formula for my kid? Dude, you gotta steal and shit. You know, everyone does it. How else does the country work? It's not like a drug cartel like the head of government. It's just a little low level stuff. If I don't do it, then it just ends up in the offshore accounts of those frakkers! Think of the working class people, bro! Oh, okey then. That makes sense. Sure, bro, let me get off your ass. Just remember me when I need some car batteries or something. I've got you covered with my sister who works in the government supermarkets. She'll find you cooking oil and flour.

We've regressed to frakking bartering! That's right, our currency is so useless we're left with bartering! I've swapped size 3 diapers for size 4. Two Kgs of sugar for baby formula. We bet out football games and the winner takes all of our butter Laughing It's surreal. At least to me. The part that pisses me off or saddens me is that's it's the norm... here people just adapt, bitch, adapt, bitch, adapt, bitch.

Eventually, since our economy is one big lie and everything goes through the black market since there is no regular market, and hence NO ONE PAYS TAXES ON ALL THAT SHIT, the country is broke. But dude, like $100 a barrel of oil and you guys have like, the most oil in all the universe? Stolen and squandered. For 17 years. But wait, so that means all that socialist spending, you guys must be like, free health care, you retire with a billionaire pension and the government has masturbation machines in every house? No. Most of those projects were just decoys to invest and disappear money. No, not just the big fish. Even the frakking secretary or the janitor. ALL STOLEN AND INVESTED HALF ASSEDLY IN NOTHING THAT WILL PRODUCE.

Remember what I said about the lost generation? It's true. Our education is surprisingly cheap and of quality. We have many professionals of many fields. Kick ass people who can cut it in the toughest of jobs. But what's the point if you're earning minimum wage, and most likely have to sell your soul to the government and assist their dumbass rallies (like in PDVSA's case, the one and only national oil company). What's the point of working if you can't even save up for anything? Say you're an honest guy. You can't buy yourself a frakking pair of jeans with what you earn. So what do you do? Emigrate. Any. Frakking. Where. This has been going for years. I literally know at least 50 people who I've known or met in my life, all professionals, who have left the country. I have 1 last close friend left from my univ bro's. My real life bro is in the US. My dad is a real estate agent and he's pretty much helped out my me and my brother because no one has any frakking money to buy real estate. He does his advising here and there, but it doesn't cut it to maintain the apartment, the car he needs to work or anything. That's just an example. My dad's a beast at what he does. But graduates with minimum experience and absolutely nothing on your name? Dude, you have zero future.

My God, what a whiny, depressed man I must seem. But not. It's shitty but everything has a solution. Me at least, I currently have no job and must emigrate. But it's cool. After all the shit one goes through here, once you see what a real country should work like, it's like watching a 4k movie after getting LASIK surgery.

TL:DR: The country is a bukkake of mistakes, it's our fault, the government ain't going anywhere and it will only get worse.

But Sushi's back so it's all worth it smoking
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Post by Adit Fri Jun 10, 2016 3:00 pm

I'm sorry I hear that sushi. What a terrible place to live. Move out if you can.
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Post by FennecFox7 Sat Jun 11, 2016 9:35 pm

Betty La Fea wrote:Socialism never works wherever its tried.


yes, socialism is the reason for the high murder rate and the dependence on oil Rolling Eyes
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Post by RealGunner Sat Jun 11, 2016 10:52 pm

Betty La Fea wrote:Socialism never works wherever its tried.


It has worked though.
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Post by Pedram Sat Jun 11, 2016 11:01 pm

Apparently the opposition is gathering signatures to hold a referendum on Maduro.

@Sushi Master , how much power does the opposition has ? can they actually take away the presidency from him ?
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Post by Guest Sun Jun 12, 2016 12:30 am

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Post by CBarca Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:19 am

Again, it seems people are getting socialism mixed up with Scandinavian countries like Sweden. There is overlap but it's not the same.

Betty is absolutely right
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Post by RealGunner Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:28 am

There is minimal overlap. Fundamentally countries like Denmark and Canada are socialists. They employ socialist values in most of their policies. Yes they do have mixed economical policies but USA and Denmark both have an opposite views on most political and economical stance. If you are calling USA a capitalist state then you can't call Denmark is the same.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:59 am

Pedram wrote:Apparently the opposition is gathering signatures to hold a referendum on Maduro.

@Sushi Master , how much power does the opposition has ? can they actually take away the presidency from him ?
They need 130k signatures to force a referendum and they gathered 2m. The government is working hard to invalidate as many of those signatures as they can, but it's unlikely they will be able to decree that 95% of them are ilegal.

I was speaking to some venezuelans yesterday, they think there will be massive riots soon and from there everything will hit the fan. People can eat right now.
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Post by Guest Sun Jun 12, 2016 2:11 am

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Post by BarrileteCosmico Sun Jun 12, 2016 2:31 am

Canada and Scandinavia are not socialist countries, they're social democratic states. Big difference. Socialism implies state run companies, market, etc, whereas Canada and Scandinavia all have core pro-market values.

Socialism: a political and economic theory of social organization that advocates that the means of production, distribution, and exchange should be owned or regulated by the community as a whole.

Nordic Model: refers to the economic and social policies common to nordic countries which include a combination of free market capitalism with a comprehensive welfare state and collective bargaining at the national level.
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Post by RealGunner Sun Jun 12, 2016 3:33 am

Well, some would argue market socialism is a variation of socialism. Kinda how China operates. Democratic socialism is a form of socialism afterall.

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Post by sportsczy Sun Jun 12, 2016 9:30 am

The successful "socialist" countries implement market economics with liberal social programs. However, these programs are limited so that the business and citizens aren't taxed so much that it makes them uncompetitive. Also, these programs don't cost more than the government can afford.

For example, in France, these social programs and laws aren't affordable for the government. To compensate, they increased taxes on businesses and the wealthy... well, the businesses became uncompetitive or just moved from France. The most wealthy people also left the country. So in the end, they didn't create any additional tax revenue and are still running at a big deficit WHILE killing the economy. In the meantime, the people are so frakkin lazy that they are unwilling to get off their arse and work hard like everywhere else... leading to strikes. We're on the same path as Greece unfortunately.
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Post by Guest Sun Jun 12, 2016 1:32 pm

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Post by Sushi Master Mon Jun 13, 2016 5:29 am

BarrileteCosmico wrote:
Pedram wrote:Apparently the opposition is gathering signatures to hold a referendum on Maduro.

@Sushi Master , how much power does the opposition has ? can they actually take away the presidency from him ?
They need 130k signatures to force a referendum and they gathered 2m. The government is working hard to invalidate as many of those signatures as they can, but it's unlikely they will be able to decree that 95% of them are ilegal.

I was speaking to some venezuelans yesterday, they think there will be massive riots soon and from there everything will hit the fan. People can eat right now.

Barrilete summed it up nicely.

I don't think the government will decree that many as illegal, really, all this circus is just time wasting tactics.

The thing is, is that even if all the process were completed and a referendum enacted, by the time this happens (say mid 2017), Maduro will already have completed more than 50% of his presidency period, and thus the presidency will just pass to the vicepresident, another crook under the socialist umbrella...

Basically, the government is using every excuse imaginable to stall the process in order for them to complete their period no matter what puppet they have there, so to steal as much as they can, because in the next official elections, there is no way in hell they're winning again unless Chavez comes down from the heavens and throws a bag of rice into every Venezuelan home. And they will definitely be all charged in some way or another considering half the government is into some drug trafficking or are mysteriously involved in vanishing and modifying official records in order to hide wherever those billions of dollars that definitely did not go into our infrastructure or government operated 'social projects', actually are.

Barri, are those Argentina based Venezuelans to spoke to? Because I can tell you short of the apocalypse, people are not going to risk themselves outside peaceful rallies which pretty much do not accomplish nothing, because the government DOESN'T CARE. Any and all person declared for the opposition is pretty much against the Glorious Socialist Movement, and thus not important for the plans Our Eternal Commander set in motion after his martyrdom Laughing .

The opposition keep on believing a peaceful way out is what will get these guys out of power, but the reality is that they are a disorganized mess who can't even get their balls out leader, a guy who turned himself in during some peaceful protests, out of jail. And in those past elections when Maduro fishily won by a few thousand votes, the government being bed-buddies with the frakking National Electoral Center, the 'leaders' nor the people had the balls to come out and protest a recount of all votes. We just turned over and took it in the ass like we're told to do, then bitch about it and create some wonderful memes. Yeah, I'm bitter.

Of course, not that I can blame them. The government controls all armed forces, and even has some paramilitary groups active. They all gain being in the government's pockets so they can continue the cesspool our armed forces became to be, a goldmine of food and gasoline contraband, drug trafficking and frakking expert killers and thieves.

So in conclusion: people are too afraid and are in no condition or belief that they will forcefully stage a coup (only way out, IMO), the guys in power are all swimming in fat money and are in no interest to stage a coup, and no international body will waste resources of what is a no-fuse ticking time bomb.

Conclusion: We'll all take it up the ass and bitch about it online until the next official elections.
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Post by iftikhar Thu Jun 30, 2016 6:44 pm

Sushi Master wrote:Sadly, this isn't just the government's fault.

It's a whole frakking donkey's dilated anus overall.

Yes, Maduro is a grade A useless and incompetent idiot, but then again, he's just continuing Chavez' "legacy". He was frakking voted in as the handpicked guy (Chavez must have been drugged from all that chemo during that) to succeed him and the whole 'Revolutionary' bullshit. But no. Those assholes we have imploding the country were all voted in gleefully by batshit crazy fanatics, fearful people wanting to keep their jobs since the government controls pretty much everything, poor and uneducated souls who think because the government gives them a bag of rice and two cartons of milk are superior to any other form of government... As a Venezuelan: it's our frakking fault. And I've never even voted for those assholes, but I cannot deny the support they've always gotten. Oh, well, till now that is because most families do not have the luxury of frakking eating every day or wiping their ass with dignity.

17 years of this basically amount to a lost generation. There are a slew of problems here, but the core of everything is an utterly disgusting and degenerative culture. People here laugh of North Americans/Europeans/Even fellow Latins and their supposedly "zombie" lifestyle. Because we're alive, man. We party and shit and live decently. Well, guess what: it's all bullshit and the bubble burst long ago and there's no way out... We're frakking lazy. We don't like to work. We're not honest. We don't give two fraks where you get your money, even if you, me, and every fraking one knows that the system is broke and NO ONE GIVES A SHIT. We just figure out the easiest way to make by, and that's it. In that we're the geniuses of the planet. The famous maraña. You're a doctor? Well, officially you get paid shit, so you tell your patients that they have to pay extra, on the side, for the regulated medicines you will not find, because they've already been bought by guys who live off reselling everything and anything on the blackmarket. There are places, hell, people put kiosks on the street where they resell pretty much anything that is scarce which is everything. Literally. I've gone 4 months wiping my ass with baby wipes because I can't and will not do a big ass line for toilet paper. Sorry, I do not have the time nor the patience. Course, I was blessed with a very good job which even paid me part in pure dollars (we have a frakked fixed currency exchange rate) so I'm in semi-bourgeois territory compared to 90% of the population, more so my age. But the rest? Well, either you pay up exaggerated prices or you queue up like a sheep and spend your day in the blistering sun, wasting away because your children don't have anything to eat or diapers to soil, buying at legally subsidized prices, because you only earn $15 a month, the minimum wage, or let me say: the only wage for like 90% of the population.

What, $15 you say? That's right, because due to subsidizing everything, what's left of any half decent business more often have to produce at a loss. So, engineer? Minimum wage. Lawyer? Minimum wage. Army recruit? Minimum wage. Taxi driver? Heeey, like 10 minimum wages. The frak did I graduate from med school, bro? Let's resell subsidized products to the elite and cab drive on the afternoons. Aaand the government has nationalized pretty much any foreign and even local companies with a previously successful track record to their oh so impressive business model... Yeah, you can figure that out.

Which brings me to the second point... corruption. Jesus on a tricycle, there's another thing we're the alpha males of. But... we don't see it that way. What? Morals? Like, isn't that bad, mommy? No. I'm on minimum wage, remember? How am I supposed to like, save up money or take my girl to the movies or buy resold formula for my kid? Dude, you gotta steal and shit. You know, everyone does it. How else does the country work? It's not like a drug cartel like the head of government. It's just a little low level stuff. If I don't do it, then it just ends up in the offshore accounts of those frakkers! Think of the working class people, bro! Oh, okey then. That makes sense. Sure, bro, let me get off your ass. Just remember me when I need some car batteries or something. I've got you covered with my sister who works in the government supermarkets. She'll find you cooking oil and flour.

We've regressed to frakking bartering! That's right, our currency is so useless we're left with bartering! I've swapped size 3 diapers for size 4. Two Kgs of sugar for baby formula. We bet out football games and the winner takes all of our butter Laughing It's surreal. At least to me. The part that pisses me off or saddens me is that's it's the norm... here people just adapt, bitch, adapt, bitch, adapt, bitch.

Eventually, since our economy is one big lie and everything goes through the black market since there is no regular market, and hence NO ONE PAYS TAXES ON ALL THAT SHIT, the country is broke. But dude, like $100 a barrel of oil and you guys have like, the most oil in all the universe? Stolen and squandered. For 17 years. But wait, so that means all that socialist spending, you guys must be like, free health care, you retire with a billionaire pension and the government has masturbation machines in every house? No. Most of those projects were just decoys to invest and disappear money. No, not just the big fish. Even the frakking secretary or the janitor. ALL STOLEN AND INVESTED HALF ASSEDLY IN NOTHING THAT WILL PRODUCE.

Remember what I said about the lost generation? It's true. Our education is surprisingly cheap and of quality. We have many professionals of many fields. Kick ass people who can cut it in the toughest of jobs. But what's the point if you're earning minimum wage, and most likely have to sell your soul to the government and assist their dumbass rallies (like in PDVSA's case, the one and only national oil company). What's the point of working if you can't even save up for anything? Say you're an honest guy. You can't buy yourself a frakking pair of jeans with what you earn. So what do you do? Emigrate. Any. Frakking. Where. This has been going for years. I literally know at least 50 people who I've known or met in my life, all professionals, who have left the country. I have 1 last close friend left from my univ bro's. My real life bro is in the US. My dad is a real estate agent and he's pretty much helped out my me and my brother because no one has any frakking money to buy real estate. He does his advising here and there, but it doesn't cut it to maintain the apartment, the car he needs to work or anything. That's just an example. My dad's a beast at what he does. But graduates with minimum experience and absolutely nothing on your name? Dude, you have zero future.

My God, what a whiny, depressed man I must seem. But not. It's shitty but everything has a solution. Me at least, I currently have no job and must emigrate. But it's cool. After all the shit one goes through here, once you see what a real country should work like, it's like watching a 4k movie after getting LASIK surgery.

TL:DR: The country is a bukkake of mistakes, it's our fault, the government ain't going anywhere and it will only get worse.

But Sushi's back so it's all worth it smoking
Sad pale

The story is eerily similar to our though with completely different consequences.
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Post by Pedram Fri Sep 02, 2016 12:04 pm

Protest in the Caracas streets.

https://www.instagram.com/p/BJ0fZ87gBGf/
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Post by zigra Fri Sep 02, 2016 12:29 pm

Betty La Fea wrote:Socialism never works wherever its tried.


Capitalism has never worked wherever it was tried.
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Post by VivaStPauli Fri Sep 02, 2016 5:46 pm

Haven't seen Socialism tried yet.

At least not a form of Socialism that would be recognizable to the likes of Marx or Trotsky.
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Post by Adit Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:29 pm

As long as communism have no answer for 'innovation' and corruption in my opinion it is just an utopian idea.

There is no incentive for new innovation and too much chance for corruption.
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Post by BarrileteCosmico Fri Sep 02, 2016 6:59 pm

VivaStPauli wrote:Haven't seen Socialism tried yet.

At least not a form of Socialism that would be recognizable to the likes of Marx or Trotsky.
Maybe that should tell you something about the real-life application of marxism? Plenty of powerful people have been influenced by his ideas that theyve had a chance for it
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